Obama versus McCain using polls from 16-Jan-08 to 16-Sep-08


Alabama

9 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), McCain: 100.0% wins (100000 wins ). 2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Capital Survey 03-Sep-08 04-Sep-08 606 4.0 35.0 54.8 M+19.8


Alaska

3 Electoral votes, 3 polls Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), McCain: 100.0% wins (100000 wins ). 2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 09-Sep-08 09-Sep-08 500 4.5 33.0 64.0 M+31.0
American Viewpoint 02-Sep-08 02-Sep-08 400 4.9 33.0 57.0 M+24.0
Ivan Moore 30-Aug-08 02-Sep-08 500 4.4 35.0 54.0 M+19.0


Arizona

10 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 4.5% wins (4532 wins ), McCain: 95.5% wins (95468 wins ). 2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Cronkite-Eight 14-Aug-08 16-Aug-08 402 4.9 30.0 40.0 M+10.0


Arkansas

6 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 1.7% wins (1662 wins ), McCain: 98.3% wins (98338 wins ). 2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 15-Jul-08 15-Jul-08 500 4.5 39.0 52.0 M+13.0


California

55 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 98.2% wins (98202 wins ), McCain: 1.8% wins (1798 wins ). 2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 20-Aug-08 20-Aug-08 500 4.5 54.0 41.0 O+13.0


Colorado

9 Electoral votes, 4 polls Obama: 66.1% wins (66081 wins ), McCain: 33.9% wins (33919 wins ). 2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 14-Sep-08 14-Sep-08 500 4.5 46.0 48.0 M+2.0
Insider Advantage 10-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 503 4.3 49.0 46.0 O+3.0
Public Policy Polling 07-Sep-08 09-Sep-08 1078 3.0 47.0 46.0 O+1.0
Fox 07-Sep-08 07-Sep-08 500 4.5 49.0 46.0 O+3.0


Connecticut

7 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 98.2% wins (98198 wins ), McCain: 1.8% wins (1802 wins ). 2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 31-Jul-08 31-Jul-08 500 4.5 53.0 40.0 O+13.0


Delaware

3 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 97.2% wins (97213 wins ), McCain: 2.8% wins (2787 wins ). 2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 13-Sep-08 13-Sep-08 500 4.5 55.0 43.0 O+12.0


D.C.

3 Electoral votes, 0 polls Obama assumed to win all elections. 2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

Florida

27 Electoral votes, 5 polls Obama: 1.1% wins (1120 wins ), McCain: 98.9% wins (98880 wins ). 2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 14-Sep-08 14-Sep-08 500 4.5 44.0 49.0 M+5.0
Insider Advantage 11-Sep-08 11-Sep-08 511 4.3 42.0 50.0 M+8.0
Fox 07-Sep-08 07-Sep-08 500 4.5 48.0 48.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 05-Sep-08 09-Sep-08 1032 3.1 43.0 50.0 M+7.0
Public Policy Polling 06-Sep-08 07-Sep-08 968 3.1 45.0 50.0 M+5.0


Georgia

15 Electoral votes, 2 polls Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), McCain: 100.0% wins (100000 wins ). 2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Insider Advantage 10-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 506 4.0 38.0 56.0 M+18.0
Strategic Vision 07-Sep-08 09-Sep-08 800 3.0 39.0 52.0 M+13.0


Hawaii

4 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 100.0% wins (100000 wins ), McCain: 0.0% wins (0 wins ). 2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
SurveyUSA 26-Feb-08 29-Feb-08 594 4.1 61.0 31.0 O+30.0


Idaho

4 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), McCain: 100.0% wins (100000 wins ). 2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 09-Sep-08 09-Sep-08 500 4.5 29.0 68.0 M+39.0


Illinois

21 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 99.3% wins (99289 wins ), McCain: 0.7% wins (711 wins ). 2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 12-Aug-08 12-Aug-08 500 4.5 55.0 40.0 O+15.0


Indiana

11 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 36.5% wins (36465 wins ), McCain: 63.5% wins (63535 wins ). 2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Howey-Gauge 29-Aug-08 30-Aug-08 600 --- 43.0 45.0 M+2.0


Iowa

7 Electoral votes, 2 polls Obama: 100.0% wins (100000 wins ), McCain: 0.0% wins (0 wins ). 2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Selzer 08-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 616 4.0 52.0 40.0 O+12.0
CNN/Time 31-Aug-08 02-Sep-08 828 3.5 55.0 40.0 O+15.0


Kansas

6 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), McCain: 100.0% wins (100000 wins ). 2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
SurveyUSA 18-Aug-08 20-Aug-08 641 3.9 35.0 58.0 M+23.0


Kentucky

8 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), McCain: 100.0% wins (100000 wins ). 2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
SurveyUSA 09-Aug-08 11-Aug-08 636 4.0 37.0 55.0 M+18.0


Louisiana

9 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 0.1% wins (99 wins ), McCain: 99.9% wins (99901 wins ). 2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 14-Aug-08 14-Aug-08 500 4.5 38.0 57.0 M+19.0


Maine

4 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 99.5% wins (99526 wins ), McCain: 0.5% wins (474 wins ). 2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Research 2000 08-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 600 4.0 52.0 38.0 O+14.0


Maryland

10 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 99.9% wins (99901 wins ), McCain: 0.1% wins (99 wins ). 2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Gonzales 29-Aug-08 05-Sep-08 833 3.5 52.0 38.0 O+14.0


Massachusetts

12 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 99.7% wins (99679 wins ), McCain: 0.3% wins (321 wins ). 2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 05-Aug-08 05-Aug-08 500 4.5 54.0 38.0 O+16.0


Michigan

17 Electoral votes, 5 polls Obama: 79.8% wins (79794 wins ), McCain: 20.2% wins (20206 wins ). 2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 10-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 700 4.0 49.0 45.0 O+4.0
Insider Advantage 10-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 503 4.3 44.0 45.0 M+1.0
CNN/Time 07-Sep-08 09-Sep-08 966 3.0 45.0 42.0 O+3.0
Public Policy Polling 06-Sep-08 07-Sep-08 1147 2.9 47.0 46.0 O+1.0
Strategic Vision 05-Sep-08 07-Sep-08 1200 3.0 45.0 44.0 O+1.0


Minnesota

10 Electoral votes, 3 polls Obama: 93.2% wins (93163 wins ), McCain: 6.8% wins (6837 wins ). 2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Star-Tribune 11-Sep-08 12-Sep-08 1106 3.9 45.0 45.0 0.0
SurveyUSA 10-Sep-08 11-Sep-08 734 3.7 49.0 47.0 O+2.0
CNN/Time 31-Aug-08 02-Sep-08 742 3.5 53.0 41.0 O+12.0


Mississippi

6 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 0.1% wins (56 wins ), McCain: 99.9% wins (99944 wins ). 2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Research 2000 08-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 600 4.0 37.0 55.0 M+18.0


Missouri

11 Electoral votes, 2 polls Obama: 10.1% wins (10075 wins ), McCain: 89.9% wins (89925 wins ). 2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 11-Sep-08 11-Sep-08 700 4.0 46.0 51.0 M+5.0
CNN/Time 07-Sep-08 09-Sep-08 940 3.0 44.0 48.0 M+4.0


Montana

3 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 2.0% wins (2046 wins ), McCain: 98.0% wins (97954 wins ). 2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 08-Sep-08 08-Sep-08 700 4.0 42.0 53.0 M+11.0


Nebraska

5 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 0.1% wins (56 wins ), McCain: 99.9% wins (99944 wins ). 2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 28-Jul-08 28-Jul-08 500 4.5 36.0 55.0 M+19.0


Nevada

5 Electoral votes, 2 polls Obama: 29.0% wins (28983 wins ), McCain: 71.0% wins (71017 wins ). 2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 11-Sep-08 11-Sep-08 700 4.0 46.0 49.0 M+3.0
Insider Advantage 10-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 518 4.2 45.0 46.0 M+1.0


New Hampshire

4 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 87.5% wins (87451 wins ), McCain: 12.5% wins (12549 wins ). 2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
CNN/Time 07-Sep-08 09-Sep-08 899 3.5 48.0 43.0 O+5.0


New Jersey

15 Electoral votes, 5 polls Obama: 99.4% wins (99354 wins ), McCain: 0.6% wins (646 wins ). 2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Monmouth U. 11-Sep-08 14-Sep-08 589 4.0 49.0 41.0 O+8.0
Quinnipiac 10-Sep-08 14-Sep-08 1187 2.8 48.0 45.0 O+3.0
Research 2000 09-Sep-08 11-Sep-08 600 4.0 50.0 41.0 O+9.0
Marist 05-Sep-08 08-Sep-08 584 4.0 48.0 45.0 O+3.0
Fairleigh Dickenson 04-Sep-08 07-Sep-08 872 3.3 47.0 41.0 O+6.0


New Mexico

5 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 35.5% wins (35458 wins ), McCain: 64.5% wins (64542 wins ). 2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 08-Sep-08 08-Sep-08 700 4.0 47.0 49.0 M+2.0


New York

31 Electoral votes, 2 polls Obama: 98.6% wins (98572 wins ), McCain: 1.4% wins (1428 wins ). 2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 15-Sep-08 15-Sep-08 500 4.5 55.0 42.0 O+13.0
Siena College 08-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 626 3.9 46.0 41.0 O+5.0


North Carolina

15 Electoral votes, 5 polls Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), McCain: 100.0% wins (100000 wins ). 2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Research 2000 08-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 600 4.0 38.0 55.0 M+17.0
Public Policy Polling 09-Sep-08 09-Sep-08 623 3.9 44.0 48.0 M+4.0
Civitas 06-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 600 4.2 44.0 47.0 M+3.0
SurveyUSA 06-Sep-08 08-Sep-08 671 3.8 38.0 58.0 M+20.0
Garin Hart Yang 05-Sep-08 07-Sep-08 605 4.0 46.0 49.0 M+3.0


North Dakota

3 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 1.2% wins (1160 wins ), McCain: 98.8% wins (98840 wins ). 2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 08-Sep-08 08-Sep-08 500 4.5 41.0 55.0 M+14.0


Ohio

20 Electoral votes, 10 polls Obama: 9.9% wins (9919 wins ), McCain: 90.1% wins (90081 wins ). 2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 14-Sep-08 14-Sep-08 500 4.5 45.0 49.0 M+4.0
Public Policy Polling 13-Sep-08 14-Sep-08 1077 3.0 44.0 48.0 M+4.0
SurveyUSA 12-Sep-08 14-Sep-08 692 3.8 45.0 49.0 M+4.0
Suffolk U. 10-Sep-08 13-Sep-08 600 4.0 42.0 46.0 M+4.0
Insider Advantage 10-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 503 4.3 47.0 48.0 M+1.0
Ohio Poll 05-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 775 3.5 44.0 48.0 M+4.0
Quinnipiac 05-Sep-08 09-Sep-08 1367 2.7 49.0 44.0 O+5.0
Fox 07-Sep-08 07-Sep-08 600 4.0 44.0 51.0 M+7.0
Strategic Vision 05-Sep-08 07-Sep-08 1200 3.0 44.0 48.0 M+4.0
CNN/Time 31-Aug-08 02-Sep-08 685 3.5 47.0 45.0 O+2.0


Oklahoma

7 Electoral votes, 2 polls Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), McCain: 100.0% wins (100000 wins ). 2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 11-Sep-08 11-Sep-08 500 4.5 32.0 62.0 M+30.0
SurveyUSA 05-Sep-08 07-Sep-08 652 3.7 32.0 65.0 M+33.0


Oregon

7 Electoral votes, 2 polls Obama: 94.8% wins (94765 wins ), McCain: 5.2% wins (5235 wins ). 2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Moore 10-Sep-08 11-Sep-08 408 --- 43.0 37.0 O+6.0
Hoffman Res. 08-Sep-08 09-Sep-08 600 4.0 46.0 39.0 O+7.0


Pennsylvania

21 Electoral votes, 4 polls Obama: 79.4% wins (79417 wins ), McCain: 20.6% wins (20583 wins ). 2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 14-Sep-08 14-Sep-08 500 4.5 47.0 47.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 05-Sep-08 09-Sep-08 1001 3.1 48.0 45.0 O+3.0
Fox 07-Sep-08 07-Sep-08 500 4.5 47.0 45.0 O+2.0
Strategic Vision 05-Sep-08 07-Sep-08 1200 3.0 47.0 45.0 O+2.0


Rhode Island

4 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 100.0% wins (100000 wins ), McCain: 0.0% wins (0 wins ). 2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Brown U. 20-Aug-08 20-Aug-08 548 4.0 51.0 30.0 O+21.0


South Carolina

8 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 1.9% wins (1856 wins ), McCain: 98.1% wins (98144 wins ). 2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Research 2000 22-Jul-08 23-Jul-08 500 4.5 40.0 53.0 M+13.0


South Dakota

3 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 0.3% wins (333 wins ), McCain: 99.7% wins (99667 wins ). 2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 09-Sep-08 09-Sep-08 500 4.5 37.0 54.0 M+17.0


Tennessee

11 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), McCain: 100.0% wins (100000 wins ). 2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 20-Aug-08 20-Aug-08 500 4.5 35.0 60.0 M+25.0


Texas

34 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 5.7% wins (5724 wins ), McCain: 94.3% wins (94276 wins ). 2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 21-Aug-08 21-Aug-08 500 4.5 44.0 54.0 M+10.0


Utah

5 Electoral votes, 2 polls Obama: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), McCain: 100.0% wins (100000 wins ). 2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 10-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 500 4.5 32.0 64.0 M+32.0
Dan Jones 08-Sep-08 11-Sep-08 601 4.0 24.0 62.0 M+38.0


Vermont

3 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 99.9% wins (99926 wins ), McCain: 0.1% wins (74 wins ). 2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Research 2000 11-Sep-08 14-Sep-08 400 --- 55.0 35.0 O+20.0


Virginia

13 Electoral votes, 5 polls Obama: 25.5% wins (25539 wins ), McCain: 74.5% wins (74461 wins ). 2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 14-Sep-08 14-Sep-08 500 4.5 48.0 48.0 0.0
SurveyUSA 12-Sep-08 14-Sep-08 732 3.7 50.0 46.0 O+4.0
CNN/Time 07-Sep-08 09-Sep-08 920 3.0 43.0 49.0 M+6.0
Fox 07-Sep-08 07-Sep-08 500 4.5 47.0 49.0 M+2.0
SurveyUSA 05-Sep-08 07-Sep-08 717 3.7 47.0 49.0 M+2.0


Washington

11 Electoral votes, 3 polls Obama: 90.0% wins (90010 wins ), McCain: 10.0% wins (9990 wins ). 2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 10-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 500 4.5 49.0 47.0 O+2.0
Elway 06-Sep-08 08-Sep-08 450 4.5 45.5 38.0 O+7.5
SurveyUSA 05-Sep-08 07-Sep-08 658 3.9 49.0 45.0 O+4.0


West Virginia

5 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 19.9% wins (19926 wins ), McCain: 80.1% wins (80074 wins ). 2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Blankenship 06-Sep-08 07-Sep-08 432 --- 39.0 44.0 M+5.0


Wisconsin

10 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 66.3% wins (66305 wins ), McCain: 33.7% wins (33695 wins ). 2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Strategic Vision 05-Sep-08 07-Sep-08 800 3.0 45.0 43.0 O+2.0


Wyoming

3 Electoral votes, 1 poll Obama: 0.1% wins (95 wins ), McCain: 99.9% wins (99905 wins ). 2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.
Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Rasmussen 10-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 500 4.5 39.0 58.0 M+19.0