Gov. Races

03 Nov 2008

Democratic Governors Republican Governors
Mean of 29 seats Mean of 21 seats

Electoral College Map

Washington Oregon Idaho Montana Wyoming North Dakota South Dakota Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Illinios Indiana Colorado Utah New Mexico Texas Nebraska Oklahoma Kansas Nevada California Arizona Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Georgia Kentucky Ohio Michigan Pennsylvania West Virginia Virginia Hawaii Alaska North Carolina South Carolina Florida New York Vermont New Hampshire Maine Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland District of Columbia

Yesterday’s analysis showed Democrats controlling, on average, 28.4 seats to the Republicans 21.6 seats.

There were eight new polls in six states released today. The polls slightly favor Democrats.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats control 28.7 seats (on average) to the Republican’s 21.3—a net gain of 0.3 seats for Democrats.

Here is the distribution of gubernatorial seats from the simulations:

  • 100000 simulations: Democrats control a majority of seats 100.0%, Republicans control a majority of seats 0.0%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 28.7 ( 0.5)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 21.3 ( 0.5)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 29 (28, 29)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 21 (21, 22)

Expected outcomes:

  • Democratic seats with no election: 22
  • Republican seats with no election: 17
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: six
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: four
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: none
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: one

This table shows the number of seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state: Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 27
Strong Democrat 0 27
Leans Democrat 2 2 29
Weak Democrat 0 0 0 29
Weak Republican 0 0 0 21
Leans Republican 0 0 21
Strong Republican 0 21
Safe Republican 21

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

# Sample Percent Percent Democrat Republican
State @ polls size Democrat Republican % wins % wins
Delaware 1 584 69.7 30.3 100.0 0.0
Indiana 4 4689 39.6 60.4 0.0 100.0
Missouri 3 2541 59.5 40.5 100.0 0.0
Montana 2 3267 62.5 37.5 100.0 0.0
New Hampshire 9 5168 75.1 24.9 100.0 0.0
North Carolina 7 5882 50.9 49.1 82.2 17.8
North Dakota 1& 444 25.0 75.0 0.0 100.0
Utah 1& 541 14.4 85.6 0.0 100.0
Vermont 1 284 33.8 66.2 0.0 100.0
Washington 5 3199 51.5 48.5 87.9 12.1
West Virginia 1 2043 71.9 28.1 100.0 0.0

@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other elections can be found from this page.

(Permanent link to this analysis.)

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