03 Nov 2008
|Democratic Governors||Republican Governors|
|Mean of 29 seats||Mean of 21 seats|
Yesterday’s analysis showed Democrats controlling, on average, 28.4 seats to the Republicans 21.6 seats.
There were eight new polls in six states released today. The polls slightly favor Democrats.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats control 28.7 seats (on average) to the Republican’s 21.3—a net gain of 0.3 seats for Democrats.
Here is the distribution of gubernatorial seats from the simulations:
- 100000 simulations: Democrats control a majority of seats 100.0%, Republicans control a majority of seats 0.0%.
- Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 28.7 ( 0.5)
- Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 21.3 ( 0.5)
- Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 29 (28, 29)
- Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 21 (21, 22)
- Democratic seats with no election: 22
- Republican seats with no election: 17
- Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: six
- Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: four
- Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: none
- Contested Republican seats likely to switch: one
This table shows the number of seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state: Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
|State||@||polls||size||Democrat||Republican||% wins||% wins|
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other elections can be found from this page.