Obama v. McCain
04 Nov 2008
|100.0% probability of winning||0.0% probability of winning|
|Mean of 364 electoral votes||Mean of 174 electoral votes|
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 363 to 175 electoral votes (on average). On election day, we have eleven new polls in ten states released. Obama improves slightly.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times—this mean that Obama is predicted to win the election with near-100% certainty today.
Obama receives (on average) 364 to McCain’s 174 electoral votes. The most likely outcome for this election, however, is an Obama victory with 367 electoral votes (see the list below).
This analysis uses a one-week window for polls to include. But, there have been a couple of states in which the window may be too wide (that is, there were large movements over the last couple of days). Specifically, North Carolina is painted blue now, but may well go for McCain, given the changes seen over the last couple of days.
Missouri is another example. There have been four ties in the last four polls. Obama led before that, then another tie, then two McCain leads in the most recent polls. A narrower poll window would have given the state to Obama. A really narrow window would have had the state tied. Time will tell….
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 04 Mar 2008 to 04 Nov 2008, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).
Here are the ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 367 electoral votes with a 5.4% probability
- 364 electoral votes with a 4.3% probability
- 356 electoral votes with a 3.8% probability
- 353 electoral votes with a 3.8% probability
- 373 electoral votes with a 3.2% probability
- 349 electoral votes with a 3.0% probability
- 352 electoral votes with a 2.9% probability
- 370 electoral votes with a 2.8% probability
- 375 electoral votes with a 2.7% probability
- 362 electoral votes with a 2.7% probability
- 100000 simulations: Obama wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 363.8 (18.3)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 174.2 (18.3)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 364 (326, 401)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 174 (137, 212)
This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
|State||‘04||Votes||polls||Votes||Obama||McCain||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.