Another Poll! Marist: Murray 48%, Rossi 47%

Just after posting an analysis of today’s PPP poll, I find out about a new Marist poll released today as well.

The Marist poll gives Sen. Patty Murry (D-WA) a 48% to 47% lead over real estate property prognosticator and perennial political candidate Dino Rossi (R). The poll of 589 likely voters was taken by live interview from 14th to 17th October, and has a margin of error of 4%.

With this poll, Murray has now led in eight consecutive polls, all taken in October.

The Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections gives Murray 561,018 wins to Rossi’s 426,991 wins. This poll gives evidence that Murray would have a 56.8% probability of beating Rossi in an election held now.

As with the other poll today, I’ll pool it with all the other October polls and do the same type of analysis. The nine polls give 7,368 “votes” of which Murray received 3,599 (48.8%) and Rossi received 3,361 (45.6%). The simulation analysis give Murray 975,800 wins to Rossi’s 23,478 wins. Murray, in an election now, would win with a 97.7% to Rossi’s 2.3% probability. This is ab very slightly lower probability than the 98% probability found from eight earlier October polls.
9OctPoll

Here is a picture with all of the September and October polling:
Senate19Sep10-19Oct10Washington1

The Marist poll is the lowest spread (+1%) for Murray from a live-interview poll over the entire election season. (The Washington Poll in May had a +2% spread, otherwise, live-interview polls have been over +6%.) In other words, this poll goes against my argument about voter enthusiasm and robopolls versus live-interview polls discussed earlier today. Well, sort-of…the Marist poll has a relative small sample size, so that the margin of error overlaps most other live-interview polls—all but the Elway poll.

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3 Responses to “Another Poll! Marist: Murray 48%, Rossi 47%”

  1. Mary Plante Says:

    It doesn’t appear that Marist pollsters asked participants if they had already voted. Isn’t that question commonly asked in live polling after absentees have been mailed?

    All ballots from my household were already on their way back to the Pierce County Auditor on Oct 16.

  2. Darryl Says:

    Hi Mary,
    I’m not sure if absentee ballots went out at the same time everywhere and, of course, mail service varies enough that not everyone had ballots yet. That would make it very difficult to interpret the results (i.e. heavy D bias because urban mail arrives sooner, or large counties send out absentees as fast as possible).

    I am sure many pollsters will start collecting that information for future polls. The people at the Washington Poll are, for sure. Their next release is scheduled for 29th Oct.

  3. AJ Says:

    Actually, you have to get your ballot in your hot little hands in a set timeframe, most counties typically get them to mailboxes prior to the deadline.

    The exceptions? Bigger urban counties where delivery to the postal service takes longer. Poll your King, Pierce and Clark county friends. Quite a few are probably still waiting or barely got theirs.

    Go on, give em a call ;)

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