New Poll: Burner Beating Reichert

A new poll (click on Washington state) released today by Constitutent Dynamics shows Darcy Burner ahead of Rep. Dave Reichert. The telephone robopoll was taken from August 27th through 29th on a sample of 1,051 past voters.

Among the 1,051 past voters Burner leads Reichert 49% to 46% with a margin of error of 3.1%. (This means, of course, that while Darcy leads, the result is still a statistical tie.)

Among the subset of 878 “likely voters” Burner leads Reichert 50% to 45%.

From the crosstabs we learn that Burner is ahead among females 52% to 45%, whereas Reichert wins among males 48% to 45%. As the Table below shows, Burner has a hansome lead in Pierce County and leads in Bellevue, whereas Reichert leads in East King County.

 

Bellevue

East King County

Pierce County

Burner

51%

46%

53%

Reichert

42%

50%

44%

This poll comes on the heels of a recent Survey USA telephone poll taken on August 22nd and 23rd on 609 were registered voters that showed Reichert leading Burner by 54% to 41% with a 4% margin of error.

While each poll type has advantages and disadvantages, I think this most recent poll, with a larger sample size, tells us that…we have ourselves a horse race, folks!

Place your “bet” here.

(Source: Political Wire).

Update: Lynn has more analysis.

Update II: Peter points out that I was incorrect: Survey USA uses nearly identical methods. According to this analysis by Goldy the Constitutent Dynamics poll may select a more representative sample than does Survey USA poll. In any case, the sample size is larger.

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One Response to “New Poll: Burner Beating Reichert”

  1. Peter Says:

    Actually, Survey USA also uses robo-polling. It’s the same instrument methodology.

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