Election Day Polls

I guess we’ll call it a wrap with these final ten polls from eleven states. I’ll post a final election prediction shortly.

Presidential Polls:

Start End Sample % % %
State Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Alaska ARG 31-Oct 03-Nov 600 4.0 43 55 M+12
Florida Zogby 31-Oct 03-Nov 678 3.8 49.2 48.0 O+1.2
Indiana Zogby 31-Oct 03-Nov 585 4.1 45.1 50.4 M+5.3
Michigan Mitchell Interactive 03-Nov 03-Nov 400 5.0 54 38 O+16
Missouri Zogby 31-Oct 03-Nov 585 4.1 48.8 48.8 tie
Nevada Zogby 31-Oct 03-Nov 586 4.1 53.2 42.4 O+10.8
Nevada ARG 31-Oct 03-Nov 600 4.0 52 47 O+5
North Carolina Zogby 31-Oct 03-Nov 585 4.1 49.1 49.5 M+0.4
Ohio Zogby 31-Oct 03-Nov 687 3.8 49.4 47.4 O+2.0
Pennsylvania Zogby 31-Oct 03-Nov 682 3.8 51.2 41.4 O+9.8
Virginia Zogby 31-Oct 03-Nov 690 3.8 51.7 45.3 O+6.4

Alaska supports Sen. John McCain over Sen. Barack Obama by +12% in this last Alaska poll. Yesterday there was a newer Hays Research poll that showed the race a tight +3.7% for McCain. Looking at all the polls, it sure looks like the Alaska race was tightening up. Just not enough to make a difference.

In Florida, Obama has a tiny +1.2% (49.2% to 48.0%) lead over McCain. A newer Rasmussen poll offered McCain a +1% edge over Obama, 50% to 49%. Clearly this race has tightened up considerably. Florida is close—again.

Indiana gives McCain a middling +5.3% lead over Obama. Even though Obama was leading in Indiana for awhile in recent polls, It seems likely that McCain will take the state.

Imagaine that…another tie in Missouri. That makes four ties in a row (and five ties in the last six polls).

Two Nevada polls both got to Obama; one by +10.8%, the other by +5%.

North Carolina has McCain up by +0.4% over Obama, 49.5% to 49.1%. McCain has now led in four of the last six polls, all by tiny margins.

Ohio puts Obama over McCain by +2.0% (49.4% to 47.4%). A newer Rasmussen poll has the race all tied up at 49%. In the cluster of the nine most recent polls, McCain leads in two, Obama in six, and there is one tie.

Another strong Pennsylvania poll for Obama—he leads with a moderate +9.8%. This is the most recent poll. The previous poll, by SurveyUSA has Obama up by +9%.

Virginia puts Obama over McCain by a modest +6.4% (51.7% to 45.3%). A newer poll from Rasmussen has Obama up by +4%. Obama has led in all recent polling. Virginia has turned blue!

There are a series of polls by Polimetrix that I have not incorporated. These polls rely on an internal panel, rather than a random sample (like the Zogby Interactive polls do). Therefore they fail one of my criteria for inclusion in the analysis. Still, they are interesting to glance over.

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One Response to “Election Day Polls”

  1. Don Joe Says:

    Hasn’t Zogby been shading toward McCain vis-a-vis other polls?

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