Sunday, November 2, 2008 at 9:52 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: McCain Makes Small Gains Over Obama Today
| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 366 electoral votes | Mean of 172 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by (on average) 369 to 169 electoral votes.
There were 18 new polls from 14 states that add into today’s analysis. The polls show some races tightening up slightly, and McCain gets the better of it.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins ‘em all. Obama receives (on average) 366 to McCain’s 172 electoral votes—a gain of three votes for McCain since yesterday. The simulation results still suggest that Obama would win an election held today with 100.0% probability.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 02 Mar 2008 to 02 Nov 2008, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).
- 100000 simulations: Obama wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 366.2 (17.4)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 171.8 (17.4)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 366 (331, 402)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 172 (136, 207)
This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 188 | |||
| Strong Obama | 150 | 338 | ||
| Leans Obama | 15 | 15 | 353 | |
| Weak Obama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 353 |
| Weak McCain | 25 | 25 | 25 | 185 |
| Leans McCain | 37 | 37 | 160 | |
| Strong McCain | 73 | 123 | ||
| Safe McCain | 50 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | McCain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | ‘04 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | McCain | % wins | % wins |
| Alabama | 9 | 1 | 630 | 37.1 | 62.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Alaska | 3 | 2 | 1072 | 41.0 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Arizona | 10 | 4 | 2206 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 10.8 | 89.2 | |
| Arkansas | 6 | 2 | 1060 | 45.7 | 54.3 | 2.6 | 97.4 | |
| California | 55 | 1 | 611 | 62.5 | 37.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Colorado | 9 | 7 | 5719 | 54.1 | 45.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1* | 437 | 64.3 | 35.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Delaware | 3 | 1 | 631 | 65.6 | 34.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| D.C. | 3 | 1* | 570 | 86.3 | 13.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Florida | 27 | 5 | 3662 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 92.7 | 7.3 | |
| Georgia | 15 | 3 | 1646 | 48.5 | 51.5 | 19.8 | 80.2 | |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 475 | 71.6 | 28.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 438 | 36.8 | 63.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Illinois | 21 | 1 | 490 | 61.2 | 38.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Indiana | 11 | 5 | 3202 | 49.8 | 50.2 | 44.4 | 55.6 | |
| Iowa | 7 | 3 | 1918 | 58.4 | 41.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 595 | 39.0 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Kentucky | 8 | 4 | 2415 | 42.6 | 57.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1* | 394 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 31.5 | 68.5 | |
| Maine | 4 | 1 | 495 | 56.6 | 43.4 | 98.0 | 2.0 | |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 485 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 1 | 625 | 58.9 | 41.1 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| Michigan | 17 | 5 | 4188 | 56.9 | 43.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Minnesota | 10 | 6 | 3920 | 57.1 | 42.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Mississippi | 6 | 2 | 1048 | 44.4 | 55.6 | 0.5 | 99.5 | |
| Missouri | 11 | 5 | 3375 | 49.8 | 50.2 | 43.3 | 56.7 | |
| Montana | 3 | 3 | 1602 | 48.1 | 51.9 | 14.6 | 85.4 | |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1* | 465 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| Nevada | 5 | 4 | 2210 | 52.9 | 47.1 | 97.1 | 2.9 | |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 8 | 4868 | 56.4 | 43.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| New Jersey | 15 | 4 | 2609 | 59.3 | 40.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| New Mexico | 5 | 4 | 3274 | 56.3 | 43.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| New York | 31 | 1 | 601 | 65.2 | 34.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| North Carolina | 15 | 7 | 4804 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 72.7 | 27.3 | |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1 | 465 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 44.1 | 55.9 | |
| Ohio | 20 | 5 | 4819 | 52.5 | 47.5 | 99.3 | 0.7 | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 1 | 576 | 35.1 | 64.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Oregon | 7 | 5 | 3554 | 58.4 | 41.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 9 | 5523 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 564 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| South Carolina | 8 | 2 | 1008 | 45.2 | 54.8 | 1.6 | 98.4 | |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1 | 485 | 45.4 | 54.6 | 7.1 | 92.9 | |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1* | 552 | 41.3 | 58.7 | 0.2 | 99.8 | |
| Texas | 34 | 1* | 490 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 5.3 | 94.7 | |
| Utah | 5 | 1 | 1073 | 36.0 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Vermont | 3 | 1 | 372 | 61.3 | 38.7 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| Virginia | 13 | 4 | 2851 | 52.0 | 48.0 | 93.0 | 7.0 | |
| Washington | 11 | 2 | 947 | 58.1 | 41.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| West Virginia | 5 | 1 | 2064 | 43.3 | 56.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 2 | 1197 | 57.2 | 42.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1 | 485 | 37.1 | 62.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
