Sunday, November 2, 2008 at 9:16 pm by Darryl
Sunday Polls
Today there were 18 new polls from 14 states in the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain. Like yesterday, there was nothing very surprising today, although McCain got the better of some very close states today.
There were six new Senate race polls today too. No gubernatorial polls were released.
Presidential Polls:
| Start | End | Sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Poll | date | date | size | MOE | Obama | McCain | Diff |
| Colorado | Mason-Dixon | 29-Oct | 30-Oct | 625 | 4.0 | 49 | 44 | O+5 |
| Illinois | Rasmussen | 01-Nov | 01-Nov | 500 | 4.5 | 60 | 38 | O+22 |
| Iowa | Des Moines Register | 28-Oct | 31-Oct | 814 | 3.4 | 54 | 37 | O+17 |
| Kentucky | SurveyUSA | 29-Oct | 01-Nov | 616 | 4.0 | 40 | 56 | M+16 |
| Maine | Rasmussen | 01-Nov | 01-Nov | 500 | 4.5 | 56 | 43 | O+13 |
| Michigan | Detroit Free Press | 28-Oct | 31-Oct | 616 | 4.0 | 53 | 37 | O+16 |
| Minnesota | Star-Tribune | 29-Oct | 31-Oct | 933 | 4.1 | 53 | 42 | O+11 |
| Missouri | Mason-Dixon | 28-Oct | 29-Oct | 625 | 4.0 | 46 | 47 | M+1 |
| Nevada | Mason-Dixon | 28-Oct | 29-Oct | 625 | 4.0 | 47 | 43 | O+4 |
| New Mexico | Journal Poll | 28-Oct | 30-Oct | 659 | — | 51 | 43 | O+8 |
| North Carolina | Mason-Dixon | 28-Oct | 29-Oct | 625 | 4.0 | 46 | 49 | M+3 |
| Ohio | Columbus Dispatch | 22-Oct | 31-Oct | 2164 | 2.0 | 52 | 46 | O+6 |
| Ohio | Mason-Dixon | 28-Oct | 29-Oct | 625 | 4.0 | 45 | 47 | M+2 |
| Pennsylvania | Muhlenberg | 28-Oct | 01-Nov | 599 | 4.0 | 52 | 45 | O+7 |
| Pennsylvania | SurveyUSA | 29-Oct | 31-Oct | 700 | 3.8 | 51 | 44 | O+7 |
| Pennsylvania | Rasmussen | 01-Nov | 01-Nov | 500 | 4.5 | 52 | 46 | O+6 |
| Virginia | Mason-Dixon | 29-Oct | 30-Oct | 625 | 4.0 | 47 | 44 | O+3 |
| Virginia | SurveyUSA | 30-Oct | 01-Nov | 672 | 3.9 | 50 | 46 | O+4 |
Colorado supports Obama over McCain by +5% (49% to 44%) today. This poll joins a cluster of three concurrent polls, including an ARG poll giving Obama +7% (52% to 45%), and Public Policy Polling poll giving Obama a +10%. Overall, there has been little movement in this race:
Maine remains out of reach for McCain. Early in October, Obama had a small single-digit lead. Today Obama is up by +13%, and a solid 56% to 43%.
Michigan was, at one time, thought to be a McCain state. Obama has a +16% (53% to 37%) lead today.
In Minnesota, Obama leads McCain by +11% (53% to 42%) today. This was another state considered to be a possible McCain pick-up. Not likely.
Missouri goes to McCain by +1% (47% to 46%) today. A newer Insider Advantage poll had a McCain up by +3% (50% to 47%). The most recent ARG poll shows the race tied at 48% each. Obama has not held the lead for five polls now—although two are tied.
In Nevada, Obama holds a narrow +4% (47% to 43%) lead over McCain. The previous poll (by Rasmussen) gave Obama a slightly stronger +4% (50% to 46%). It looks likes Obama big leads of last week have been reduced somewhat:
New Mexico gives Obama a +8% (51% to 43%) lead over McCain. A newer SurveyUSA poll puts Obama over McCain by +7% (52% to 45%). These two polls come on the tails of several double-digit leads for Obama:
North Carolina gives McCain a single-digit lead over Obama by +3% (49% to 46%). This is the fifth oldest poll from the state. The four most recent polls give Obama three leads and show one tie. Obama retains a narrow lead:
The two Ohio polls split. One gives Obama a +6% (52% to 46%). This was a poll conducted by mail. The second poll gives McCain a +2% (47% to 45%) lead. This McCain lead comes at the end of 12 consecutive leads for Obama.
In Pennsylvania, Obama has a +7% lead over McCain in two polls, and a +6% in the third. Obama has led in all recent polls, even if the margin has narrowed slightly in the last week.
Virginia is another state where Obama has led in all recent polling. Today there are two new polls and they both go to Obama by +3% and +4%. Here, again, the margin has narrowed a bit, but Obama still has a substantial advantage.
Senate Polls:
| Start | End | Sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Poll | date | date | size | MOE | Democrat | Republican | Diff |
| Iowa | Des Moines Register | 28-Oct | 31-Oct | 814 | 3.4 | 57 | 31 | D+26 |
| Kentucky | SurveyUSA | 29-Oct | 01-Nov | 616 | 4.0 | 45 | 53 | R+8 |
| Maine | Rasmussen | 01-Nov | 01-Nov | 500 | 4.5 | 41 | 57 | R+16 |
| Minnesota | Star-Tribune | 29-Oct | 31-Oct | 933 | 4.1 | 42 | 38 | D+4 |
| New Mexico | Journal Poll | 28-Oct | 30-Oct | 659 | — | 53 | 39 | D+14 |
| Virginia | SurveyUSA | 30-Oct | 01-Nov | 672 | 3.9 | 59 | 35 | D+24 |
The Kentucky race is between Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) and Bruce Lunsford (D).
McConnell has been slowly building up a lead, and hits a local high with an +8% lead over Lunsford.
The Minnesota race between Sen. Norm Coleman (R) and Al Franken (D) continues to defy stability. Today Franken gets his second consecutive lead with a +4% lead over Coleman. Coleman led in the previous three polls, and Franken led in the three before that. Go figure.
I’ll post new simulation results shortly.
