Saturday, November 1, 2008 at 11:29 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Obama Holds His Lead Over McCain
| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 369 electoral votes | Mean of 169 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by a mean of 369 to 169 electoral votes. Today we get 18 new polls in 14 states to weigh in on the race. But there were really no surprises in the polls—just some tightening up on both sides.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections (based on 137 “current” state head-to-head surveying 95,785 respondents, mostly in the past seven days), Obama wins all 100,000 times. Obama still receives (on average) 369 to McCain’s 169 electoral votes. Obama would have a near-100.0% probability of winning if the election had been held today.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 01 Mar 2008 to 01 Nov 2008, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).
- 100000 simulations: Obama wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 368.6 (14.7)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 169.4 (14.7)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 367 (340, 402)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 171 (136, 198)
This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 250 | |||
| Strong Obama | 103 | 353 | ||
| Leans Obama | 0 | 0 | 353 | |
| Weak Obama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 353 |
| Weak McCain | 14 | 14 | 14 | 185 |
| Leans McCain | 38 | 38 | 171 | |
| Strong McCain | 83 | 133 | ||
| Safe McCain | 50 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | McCain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | ‘04 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | McCain | % wins | % wins |
| Alabama | 9 | 1 | 630 | 37.1 | 62.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Alaska | 3 | 2 | 1072 | 41.0 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Arizona | 10 | 5 | 3005 | 47.7 | 52.3 | 4.0 | 96.0 | |
| Arkansas | 6 | 2 | 1060 | 45.7 | 54.3 | 2.2 | 97.8 | |
| California | 55 | 2 | 1086 | 63.3 | 36.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Colorado | 9 | 8 | 6264 | 54.1 | 45.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1* | 437 | 64.3 | 35.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Delaware | 3 | 1 | 631 | 65.6 | 34.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| D.C. | 3 | 1* | 570 | 86.3 | 13.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Florida | 27 | 8 | 5352 | 51.8 | 48.2 | 97.2 | 2.8 | |
| Georgia | 15 | 4 | 2329 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 10.7 | 89.3 | |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 475 | 71.6 | 28.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 438 | 36.8 | 63.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Illinois | 21 | 1* | 752 | 62.8 | 37.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Indiana | 11 | 5 | 3202 | 49.8 | 50.2 | 45.4 | 54.6 | |
| Iowa | 7 | 2 | 1177 | 57.8 | 42.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 595 | 39.0 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Kentucky | 8 | 3 | 1824 | 42.9 | 57.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1 | 394 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 29.8 | 70.2 | |
| Maine | 4 | 1* | 332 | 61.1 | 38.9 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 485 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 1 | 625 | 58.9 | 41.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Michigan | 17 | 4 | 3634 | 56.6 | 43.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Minnesota | 10 | 5 | 3034 | 57.5 | 42.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Mississippi | 6 | 2 | 1048 | 44.4 | 55.6 | 0.6 | 99.4 | |
| Missouri | 11 | 5 | 3601 | 49.7 | 50.3 | 38.8 | 61.2 | |
| Montana | 3 | 3 | 1602 | 48.1 | 51.9 | 13.9 | 86.1 | |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1* | 465 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| Nevada | 5 | 4 | 2311 | 53.3 | 46.7 | 98.5 | 1.5 | |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 8 | 4868 | 56.4 | 43.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| New Jersey | 15 | 5 | 3337 | 59.0 | 41.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| New Mexico | 5 | 3 | 2655 | 56.7 | 43.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| New York | 31 | 1 | 601 | 65.2 | 34.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| North Carolina | 15 | 9 | 6231 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 91.3 | 8.7 | |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1 | 465 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 42.6 | 57.4 | |
| Ohio | 20 | 6 | 3857 | 52.6 | 47.4 | 99.1 | 0.9 | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 2 | 1271 | 35.6 | 64.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Oregon | 7 | 6 | 4192 | 58.7 | 41.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 9 | 5803 | 54.0 | 46.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 564 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| South Carolina | 8 | 2 | 1008 | 45.2 | 54.8 | 1.7 | 98.3 | |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1 | 485 | 45.4 | 54.6 | 7.6 | 92.4 | |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1* | 552 | 41.3 | 58.7 | 0.2 | 99.8 | |
| Texas | 34 | 1* | 490 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 5.4 | 94.6 | |
| Utah | 5 | 1 | 1073 | 36.0 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Vermont | 3 | 1 | 372 | 61.3 | 38.7 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| Virginia | 13 | 5 | 3342 | 53.1 | 46.9 | 99.2 | 0.8 | |
| Washington | 11 | 3 | 1715 | 57.3 | 42.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| West Virginia | 5 | 1 | 2064 | 43.3 | 56.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 3 | 1925 | 56.4 | 43.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1 | 485 | 37.1 | 62.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
