Hominid Views

There were 18 new polls representing 14 states released today in the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain. Nothing particularly surprising—a little bit of tightening up on each side of the contest. We also got six Senate race polls and three gubernatorial polls today.

Presidential Polls:

Arkansas tightens up today. McCain only gets a +7%. A slightly older Rasmussen poll offered McCain a +10% edge. Before that, a Research 2000 poll had McCain up by +11%, and an even older U. Arkansas poll gave McCain a +15%:

Three Florida polls today give Obama the edge. One poll is tied, and the other two give Obama small single-digit leads (+2% and +4%). A slightly older LA Times poll puts Obama over McCain by +7%:

Indiana is all tied up at 48%. The previous poll, by Rasmussen had McCain up by +3% over Obama, 49% to 46%. And the candidates were tied in the SurveyUSA poll before that. Who could have imagined Indiana polling as dead even within a week of the election?

Iowa is still rock solid for Obama. He gets a +14% lead today. An even newer poll from SurveyUSA gives Obama +15%.

Kentucky is somewhat close. McCain gets a +12.0% edge. This is what he had in the more recent poll by Rasmussen. An slightly older Research 2000 poll had McCain up by +17%.

New Hampshire might be tightening up a bit. Obama leads McCain by only +11% (but with 52% to 41%). A concurrent poll, by Rasmussen gave Obama +7% (with 51%), and another concurrent poll, by SurveyUSA offered Obama a +11% (with 53%). I don’t think there is any question about Obama taking the state.

New Mexico has Obama up by a modest +7% over McCain, 52% to 45%. The previous poll, by Public Policy Polling, had Obama with a +17% lead. Before that, a Rasmussen poll found Obama with a +10% (54% to 44%). Obama is going to take New Mexico.

Oregon has Obama up by +12% over McCain, 54% to 42%. Perhaps this race is narrowing.

Three new Pennsylvania polls, and Obama takes them all. He leads McCain by +4% (51% to 47%), +6% (51% to 45%), and by +8% (52% to 44%):

South Dakota remains steady. McCain leads Obama by +9% today:

Utah has McCain up by +25% over Obama, 57% to 32%. This is good enough to win, but the race sure has tightened up. The previous poll, from mid-September (by ARG) gave McCain a solid +36% (65% to 29%) lead. And a Rasmussen poll just before that had McCain up +32% (64% to 32%).

In Washington, Obama has a passable +12% (51% to 39%) lead. The previous poll, by SurveyUSA had Obama up by a good +17%. But before that, a poll from Strategic Vision gave Obama +12% (54% to 42%). It is pretty clear that Washington is going to go for Obama.

Senate Polls:

The Iowa race is between Sen. Tom Harkin (D) and Christopher Reed (R).
Harkin has a nice +20% (57% to 37%) lead. A slightly newer SurveyUSA poll has Harkin up by +26% (61% to 35%).

The Kentucky race is between Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) and Bruce Lunsford (D). McConnell leads Lunsford by +4.4% (46.8% to 42.4%) today. Notice he is under 50%. But a newer Rasmussen poll had McConnell over Lunsford by +7% (51% to 44%):

The New Hampshire race remains close. Sen. John Sununu (R) and Jeanne Shaheen (D) are battling it out and Shaheen leads by +8% (45% to 37%) today. A concurrent Rasmussen poll gives Jeanne Shaheen a +8% lead.

In the New Mexico race Tom Udall (D) is up by +14% over Steve Pearce (R), 56% to 42%.

Gubernatorial Polls:

The only interesting gubernatorial race that was polled today was my own Washington state. The race is between Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) and Dino Rossi (R). The race has had Gregoire up by a couple of points prior to today. And today she still leads by +2%:

I’ll post a new simulation analysis later this evening.