« Friday’s Bountiful Polls
Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! »

Friday, October 31, 2008 at 11:03 pm by Darryl

Poll Analysis: Obama Holds His Lead Over McCain

Obama McCain
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 369 electoral votes Mean of 169 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Washington Oregon Idaho Montana Wyoming North Dakota South Dakota Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Illinios Indiana Colorado Utah New Mexico Texas Nebraska Oklahoma Kansas Nevada California Arizona Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Georgia Kentucky Ohio Michigan Pennsylvania West Virginia Virginia Hawaii Alaska North Carolina South Carolina Florida New York Vermont New Hampshire Maine Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland District of Columbia

Electoral College Map

Washington Oregon Idaho Montana Wyoming North Dakota South Dakota Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Illinios Indiana Colorado Utah New Mexico Texas Nebraska Oklahoma Kansas Nevada California Arizona Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Georgia Kentucky Ohio Michigan Pennsylvania West Virginia Virginia Hawaii Alaska North Carolina South Carolina Florida New York Vermont New Hampshire Maine Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland District of Columbia

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 369 to 169 electoral votes. For today, we get to add in 42 new polls representing 23 states. But no big surprises emerges, and no change to the score.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins every one. Obama receives (on average) 369 to McCain’s 169 electoral votes. If an election had been held today, Obama would win with a near-100.0% probability.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 02 Mar 2008 to 31 Oct 2008, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

  • 100000 simulations: Obama wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
  • Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 368.9 (13.9)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 169.1 (13.9)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 367 (341, 401)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 171 (137, 197)

This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Obama 263
Strong Obama 75 338
Leans Obama 15 15 353
Weak Obama 11 11 11 364
Weak McCain 3 3 3 174
Leans McCain 35 35 171
Strong McCain 94 136
Safe McCain 42

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

EC # Total % % Obama McCain
State ‘04 Votes polls Votes Obama McCain % wins % wins
Alabama 9 1 630 37.1 62.9 0.0 100.0
Alaska 3 2 1072 41.0 59.0 0.0 100.0
Arizona 10 7 4426 47.9 52.1 2.7 97.3
Arkansas 6 1 490 44.9 55.1 5.5 94.5
California 55 1 475 64.2 35.8 100.0 0.0
Colorado 9 9 6834 54.2 45.8 100.0 0.0
Connecticut 7 1* 437 64.3 35.7 100.0 0.0
Delaware 3 1 631 65.6 34.4 100.0 0.0
D.C. 3 1* 570 86.3 13.7 100.0 0.0
Florida 27 9 6239 51.9 48.1 98.2 1.8
Georgia 15 4 2329 48.2 51.8 10.7 89.3
Hawaii 4 1* 475 71.6 28.4 100.0 0.0
Idaho 4 1* 438 36.8 63.2 0.0 100.0
Illinois 21 1* 752 62.8 37.2 100.0 0.0
Indiana 11 6 3762 49.4 50.6 29.1 70.9
Iowa 7 1 625 57.9 42.1 99.8 0.2
Kansas 6 1 595 39.0 61.0 0.0 100.0
Kentucky 8 2 1060 42.4 57.6 0.1 99.9
Louisiana 9 1 394 48.2 51.8 31.5 68.5
Maine 4 1* 332 61.1 38.9 99.8 0.2
Maryland 10 1* 485 61.9 38.1 100.0 0.0
Massachusetts 12 1 625 58.9 41.1 99.9 0.1
Michigan 17 4 3634 56.6 43.4 100.0 0.0
Minnesota 10 5 3034 57.5 42.5 100.0 0.0
Mississippi 6 2 1048 44.4 55.6 0.4 99.6
Missouri 11 6 4159 50.1 49.9 54.0 46.0
Montana 3 4 2177 48.0 52.0 9.3 90.7
Nebraska 5 1* 465 39.8 60.2 0.1 99.9
Nevada 5 6 3443 53.7 46.3 99.9 0.1
New Hampshire 4 10 6071 56.6 43.4 100.0 0.0
New Jersey 15 4 2624 58.3 41.7 100.0 0.0
New Mexico 5 2 2011 57.7 42.3 100.0 0.0
New York 31 1 601 65.2 34.8 100.0 0.0
North Carolina 15 12 7969 51.0 49.0 89.5 10.5
North Dakota 3 1 465 49.5 50.5 44.2 55.8
Ohio 20 9 6291 53.2 46.8 100.0 0.0
Oklahoma 7 2 1271 35.6 64.4 0.0 100.0
Oregon 7 5 3712 59.0 41.0 100.0 0.0
Pennsylvania 21 9 6588 55.0 45.0 100.0 0.0
Rhode Island 4 1* 564 59.2 40.8 99.8 0.2
South Carolina 8 2 1008 45.2 54.8 1.5 98.5
South Dakota 3 1* 546 45.1 54.9 4.8 95.2
Tennessee 11 1* 552 41.3 58.7 0.2 99.8
Texas 34 1* 490 44.9 55.1 5.6 94.4
Utah 5 1* 564 30.9 69.1 0.0 100.0
Vermont 3 1 372 61.3 38.7 99.9 0.1
Virginia 13 7 4469 53.3 46.7 100.0 0.0
Washington 11 2 1367 57.4 42.6 100.0 0.0
West Virginia 5 2 2608 43.6 56.4 0.0 100.0
Wisconsin 10 4 2263 56.2 43.8 100.0 0.0
Wyoming 3 1 485 37.1 62.9 0.0 100.0

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

Posted in Poll analysis, politics

  • Both comments and trackbacks are currently closed.
  • Trackback URI: http://hominidviews.com/wp-trackback.php?p=2034
  • Comments RSS 2.0

3 Responses to “Poll Analysis: Obama Holds His Lead Over McCain”

  1. Susan Olson Says:

    Saturday, November 1st, 2008 at 5:10 am

    Hey, Darryl-

    Now that we can apparently relax a little, any thoughts about what happened in West Virginia? If memory serves, W. Virginia was a consistent blue until about about a month ago. It went to pink, then red, now very red. Think it’s because W. Virginia is all about coal mining, and they fear Obama’s energy policy will hurt? Thx…

  2. Darryl Says:

    Saturday, November 1st, 2008 at 11:46 am

    Susan Olson,

    It looks to me like West Virginia has been McCains most of the election season. There were only two polls before September, and they both gave McCain modest leads. When the polling began in September, McCain held modest, typically single-digit leads. We are back to that right now.

    There was a brief spike (three polls) for Obama in early- to mid-October. Obama only led once, however:

    The “consistent blue” period is really an artifact of one poll, followed by a lack of new polls for awhile. See the gap?

    I don’t know what happened in early October that caused the spike, but West Virginia seems back to where everyone expected it to be last summer.

  3. Brian Boru Says:

    Saturday, November 1st, 2008 at 11:54 am

    I think the election will be stolen. Look at the West Virginia ES+S Ivotronic DRE (touchscreen) machines flipping votes from Obama to McCain. Now in Colorado, a Diebold machine has been impounded. http://www.bradblog.com

AWSOM Powered