Friday’s Bountiful Polls

There were lots and lots of polls released today. In the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain we have 42 new polls representing 23 states. No big surprises in the race—which is good news for Obama.

In Senate races there were 34 new polls covering 16 states. And we even have a banner day for gubernatorial polls…ten polls in five states.

I’ll be brief in the text and generous with the graphs today.

Presidential Polls:

Start End Sample % % %
State Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Alaska Research 2000 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 39 58 M+19
Arizona Research 2000 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 47 48 M+1
Arizona ARG 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 46 50 M+4
Colorado Public Policy Polling 28-Oct 30-Oct 2023 2.2 54 44 O+10
Colorado ARG 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 52 45 O+7
Georgia Rasmussen 30-Oct 30-Oct 500 4.5 47 52 M+5
Georgia Research 2000 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 44 47 M+3
Indiana SurveyUSA 27-Oct 30-Oct 900 3.5 47 47 tie
Kentucky Research 2000 27-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.0 39 56 M+17
Michigan Public Policy Polling 28-Oct 30-Oct 1532 2.5 55 42 O+13
Michigan Strategic Vision 27-Oct 29-Oct 1200 3.0 54 41 O+13
Michigan EPIC/MRA 26-Oct 28-Oct 600 4.0 50 38 O+12
Minnesota Public Policy Polling 28-Oct 30-Oct 1050 3.0 57 41 O+16
Minnesota Research 2000 27-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.0 53 38 O+15
Mississippi Research 2000 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 40 53 M+13
Missouri** Insider Advantage 29-Oct 29-Oct 641 3.7 47 50 M+3
Missouri ARG 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 48 48 tie
Montana Research 2000 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 44 48 M+4
Montana ARG 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 46 49 M+3
New Hampshire Strategic Vision 27-Oct 29-Oct 800 3.5 50 41 O+9
New Hampshire Research 2000 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 51 44 O+7
New Hampshire SurveyUSA 29-Oct 30-Oct 682 3.6 53 42 O+11
New Hampshire Rasmussen 30-Oct 30-Oct 700 4.0 51 44 O+7
New Hampshire ARG 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 56 41 O+15
New Jersey Fairleigh Dickenson 23-Oct 29-Oct 852 3.5 53 35 O+18
New Jersey SurveyUSA 29-Oct 30-Oct 632 4.0 52 42 O+10
New Mexico Public Policy Polling 28-Oct 30-Oct 1537 2.5 58 41 O+17
North Carolina** Insider Advantage 29-Oct 29-Oct 814 3.4 48 48 tie
North Carolina Research 2000 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 47 45 O+2
North Carolina Elon 27-Oct 30-Oct 797 3.5 45 38 O+7
North Dakota Research 2000 28-Oct 29-Oct 500 4.5 46 47 M+1
Ohio Scripps 12-Oct 23-Oct 611 3.9 57 41 O+16
Oklahoma SurveyUSA 28-Oct 30-Oct 594 4.0 34 63 M+29
Oregon Public Policy Polling 28-Oct 30-Oct 1424 2.6 57 42 O+15
Oregon Hibbitts 25-Oct 28-Oct 500 4.4 53 34 O+19
Oregon Research 2000 27-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.0 55 39 O+16
Oregon SurveyUSA 29-Oct 30-Oct 700 3.7 57 38 O+19
Pennsylvania Strategic Vision 27-Oct 29-Oct 1200 3.0 49 44 O+5
Pennsylvania Muhlenberg 26-Oct 30-Oct 615 4.0 53 43 O+10
West Virginia Public Policy Polling 28-Oct 30-Oct 2128 2.1 42 55 M+13
Wisconsin Badger Poll 21-Oct 28-Oct 359 5.2 52 42 O+10
Wyoming Research 2000 27-Oct 29-Oct 500 4.5 36 61 M+25

** Corrected—The percentages were swapped between two Insider Advantage polls.

The polls support some notion of trouble for McCain in his home state of Arizona, with a +1% and a +4%:

Do we even need to discuss Colorado? Obama gets a +10% and a +7%.

There might be trouble brewing in Georgia, too. McCain only manages a +5% and a +3%.

Indiana is tied at 47% each! A slightly newer Rasmussen poll has McCain up by +3% over Obama:

In Missouri we get two new ties, making three ties in a row. Since 20-Oct neither candidate has gotten over +2.5%:

Montana is also close. One poll gives McCain a +4%, and the other gives him a +3%. Who knew that Montana has so many latte-sipping elitist liberals?!?

Five polls in New Hampshire today? Huh. They are all large single-digit or low double-digit leads for Obama.

The three North Carolina polls split. McCain leads Obama by a +3% in one. And Obama leads McCain by +2% and +7% in the others. Advantage: Obama.

North Dakota only offers a +1% lead to McCain today. But…this is a BIG improvement for McCain:

The Ohio poll is really old—like there are 18 newer polls. It may also be an outlier, but it is old enough to make little difference.

Polling for the Oregon Senate race gives us four presidential piggybacked polls. Obama leads each by double-digits.

Two new Pennsylvania polls were released today. In one, Obama leads McCain by +5%, and Obama leads by +10% in the other. This race has tightened ever so slightly this week, but Obama is still winning with better than 50% in most polls. McCain isn’t likely to change that:

It looks like McCain has won the battle for West Virginia. Today he gets a +13% lead.
This is his best lead in a long time. Obama has not led in the state since early October.

Senate Polls:

Start End Sample % % %
State Poll date date size MOE Democrat Republican Diff
Alaska Research 2000 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 58 36 D+22
Colorado Public Policy Polling 28-Oct 30-Oct 2023 2.2 56 41 D+15
Colorado CNN/Time 23-Oct 28-Oct 744 3.5 53 43 D+10
Georgia Rasmussen 30-Oct 30-Oct 500 4.5 43 48 R+5
Georgia Research 2000 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 46 47 R+1
Georgia CNN/Time 23-Oct 28-Oct 690 3.5 44 53 R+9
Kentucky Research 2000 27-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.0 44 47 R+3
Michigan Public Policy Polling 28-Oct 30-Oct 1532 2.5 58 36 D+22
Michigan Strategic Vision 27-Oct 29-Oct 1200 3.0 56 33 D+23
Michigan EPIC/MRA 26-Oct 28-Oct 600 4.0 54 38 D+16
Minnesota Public Policy Polling 28-Oct 30-Oct 1050 3.0 45 40 D+5
Minnesota Minnesota Public Radio 24-Oct 28-Oct 451 4.6 41 37 D+4
Minnesota Research 2000 27-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.0 40 43 R+3
Mississippi Research 2000 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 44 51 R+7
New Hampshire Strategic Vision 27-Oct 29-Oct 800 3.5 48 41 D+7
New Hampshire Research 2000 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 52 42 D+10
New Hampshire SurveyUSA 29-Oct 30-Oct 682 3.6 53 40 D+13
New Hampshire Rasmussen 30-Oct 30-Oct 700 4.0 52 44 D+8
New Hampshire ARG 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 53 41 D+12
New Jersey Fairleigh Dickenson 23-Oct 29-Oct 852 3.5 52 32 D+20
New Jersey SurveyUSA 29-Oct 30-Oct 632 4.0 52 37 D+15
New Mexico Public Policy Polling 28-Oct 30-Oct 1537 2.5 58 39 D+19
North Carolina Research 2000 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 50 45 D+5
North Carolina Elon 27-Oct 30-Oct 797 3.5 44 37 D+7
North Carolina CNN/Time 23-Oct 28-Oct 667 4.0 53 44 D+9
Oklahoma SurveyUSA 28-Oct 30-Oct 594 4.0 36 56 R+20
Oregon Public Policy Polling 28-Oct 30-Oct 1424 2.6 51 43 D+8
Oregon Rasmussen 30-Oct 30-Oct 500 4.5 49 46 D+3
Oregon Research 2000 27-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.0 48 42 D+6
Oregon SurveyUSA 29-Oct 30-Oct 700 3.7 49 42 D+7
Virginia CNN/Time 23-Oct 28-Oct 721 3.5 63 35 D+28
West Virginia Public Policy Polling 28-Oct 30-Oct 2128 2.1 58 40 D+18
Wyoming Research 2000 27-Oct 29-Oct 500 4.5 35 62 R+27
Wyoming Research 2000 27-Oct 29-Oct 500 4.5 35 60 R+25

Today Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens (R) made the remarkable statement that he has not been convicted of anything—because they are filing an appeal. Huh. It looks like Alaskans are not buying his spin. His opponent, Mark Begich (D), has a nice +22% lead over Uncle Ted:

The Georgia race is between Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) and Jim Martin (D). National Public Radio’s All Things Considered had a nice bit on this race this evening. Chambliss gets +5%, +1% and +9% over Martin today. There is a good chance that, even if Chambliss wins, he will not get a 50% majority. Then there will be a run-off election.

The Kentucky race between Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) and Bruce Lunsford (D) is still close and stuck in the small single-digit range. McConnell gets a +3% edge over Lunsford:

One of the closest races in the country is in Minnesota. The race is between Sen. Norm Coleman (R), Al Franken (D), and a third party candidate. Of the three polls today, two break for Franken and one for Coleman. Franken leads in the most recent poll:

The Mississippi race between Sen. Roger Wicker (R) and Ronnie Musgrove (D) may be tightening up again. Today Wicker is down to a +7% lead. He had a +11% lead in the previous Rasmussen poll, and a +13% in the Univ. S. Alabama poll before that. And before that, Wicker was only getting +1% and +2% leads:

The New Hampshire race between Sen. John Sununu (R) and Jeanne Shaheen (D) is looking mighty safe for Shaheen. Today she gets +7%, +8%, +10%, +12% and +13%:

That North Carolina race between Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) and Kay Hagan (D) just keeps looking stronger for Hagan. She leads in all three polls today (+5%, +7% and +9%). She has now lead in the last eight polls and 15 of the last 16 polls. Dole may be hurting herself with the nasty campaigning:

The Oregon race between Sen. Gordon Smith (R) and Jeff Merkley (D) also keeps getting better for Merkley. Today Merkley leads by +3%, +6%, +7% and +8%. That is quite a run. In fact, one must go back 14 polls—way back to mid-September—to find Smith in the lead:

Gubernatorial Polls:

Start End Sample % % %
State Poll date date size MOE Democrat Republican Diff
Indiana SurveyUSA 27-Oct 30-Oct 900 3.5 38 55 R+17
Indiana Selzer 26-Oct 28-Oct 606 4.0 36 54 R+18
Montana Research 2000 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 58 40 D+18
New Hampshire Strategic Vision 27-Oct 29-Oct 800 3.5 67 24 D+43
New Hampshire Research 2000 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 64 32 D+32
New Hampshire SurveyUSA 29-Oct 30-Oct 682 3.6 65 28 D+37
New Hampshire ARG 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 68 28 D+40
North Carolina Research 2000 28-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 49 44 D+5
North Carolina Elon 27-Oct 30-Oct 797 3.5 40 40 tie
West Virginia Public Policy Polling 28-Oct 30-Oct 2128 2.1 69 27 D+42

The North Carolina race is between Bev Perdue (D) and Pat McCrory (R), and Perdue leads by +5% in one poll today. The other is a tie. But the recent polling suggests an advantage for Perdue:

I’ll post a new simulation analysis shortly.

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