Hominid Views

There were lots and lots of polls released today. In the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain we have 42 new polls representing 23 states. No big surprises in the race—which is good news for Obama.

In Senate races there were 34 new polls covering 16 states. And we even have a banner day for gubernatorial polls…ten polls in five states.

I’ll be brief in the text and generous with the graphs today.

Presidential Polls:

		Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
State	Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Obama	McCain	Diff
Alaska	Research 2000	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	39	58	M+19
Arizona	Research 2000	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	47	48	M+1
Arizona	ARG	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	46	50	M+4
Colorado	Public Policy Polling	28-Oct	30-Oct	2023	2.2	54	44	O+10
Colorado	ARG	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	52	45	O+7
Georgia	Rasmussen	30-Oct	30-Oct	500	4.5	47	52	M+5
Georgia	Research 2000	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	44	47	M+3
Indiana	SurveyUSA	27-Oct	30-Oct	900	3.5	47	47	tie
Kentucky	Research 2000	27-Oct	29-Oct	600	4.0	39	56	M+17
Michigan	Public Policy Polling	28-Oct	30-Oct	1532	2.5	55	42	O+13
Michigan	Strategic Vision	27-Oct	29-Oct	1200	3.0	54	41	O+13
Michigan	EPIC/MRA	26-Oct	28-Oct	600	4.0	50	38	O+12
Minnesota	Public Policy Polling	28-Oct	30-Oct	1050	3.0	57	41	O+16
Minnesota	Research 2000	27-Oct	29-Oct	600	4.0	53	38	O+15
Mississippi	Research 2000	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	40	53	M+13
Missouri**	Insider Advantage	29-Oct	29-Oct	641	3.7	47	50	M+3
Missouri	ARG	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	48	48	tie
Montana	Research 2000	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	44	48	M+4
Montana	ARG	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	46	49	M+3
New Hampshire	Strategic Vision	27-Oct	29-Oct	800	3.5	50	41	O+9
New Hampshire	Research 2000	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	51	44	O+7
New Hampshire	SurveyUSA	29-Oct	30-Oct	682	3.6	53	42	O+11
New Hampshire	Rasmussen	30-Oct	30-Oct	700	4.0	51	44	O+7
New Hampshire	ARG	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	56	41	O+15
New Jersey	Fairleigh Dickenson	23-Oct	29-Oct	852	3.5	53	35	O+18
New Jersey	SurveyUSA	29-Oct	30-Oct	632	4.0	52	42	O+10
New Mexico	Public Policy Polling	28-Oct	30-Oct	1537	2.5	58	41	O+17
North Carolina**	Insider Advantage	29-Oct	29-Oct	814	3.4	48	48	tie
North Carolina	Research 2000	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	47	45	O+2
North Carolina	Elon	27-Oct	30-Oct	797	3.5	45	38	O+7
North Dakota	Research 2000	28-Oct	29-Oct	500	4.5	46	47	M+1
Ohio	Scripps	12-Oct	23-Oct	611	3.9	57	41	O+16
Oklahoma	SurveyUSA	28-Oct	30-Oct	594	4.0	34	63	M+29
Oregon	Public Policy Polling	28-Oct	30-Oct	1424	2.6	57	42	O+15
Oregon	Hibbitts	25-Oct	28-Oct	500	4.4	53	34	O+19
Oregon	Research 2000	27-Oct	29-Oct	600	4.0	55	39	O+16
Oregon	SurveyUSA	29-Oct	30-Oct	700	3.7	57	38	O+19
Pennsylvania	Strategic Vision	27-Oct	29-Oct	1200	3.0	49	44	O+5
Pennsylvania	Muhlenberg	26-Oct	30-Oct	615	4.0	53	43	O+10
West Virginia	Public Policy Polling	28-Oct	30-Oct	2128	2.1	42	55	M+13
Wisconsin	Badger Poll	21-Oct	28-Oct	359	5.2	52	42	O+10
Wyoming	Research 2000	27-Oct	29-Oct	500	4.5	36	61	M+25

** Corrected—The percentages were swapped between two Insider Advantage polls.

The polls support some notion of trouble for McCain in his home state of Arizona, with a +1% and a +4%:

Do we even need to discuss Colorado? Obama gets a +10% and a +7%.

There might be trouble brewing in Georgia, too. McCain only manages a +5% and a +3%.

Indiana is tied at 47% each! A slightly newer Rasmussen poll has McCain up by +3% over Obama:

In Missouri we get two new ties, making three ties in a row. Since 20-Oct neither candidate has gotten over +2.5%:

Montana is also close. One poll gives McCain a +4%, and the other gives him a +3%. Who knew that Montana has so many latte-sipping elitist liberals?!?

Five polls in New Hampshire today? Huh. They are all large single-digit or low double-digit leads for Obama.

The three North Carolina polls split. McCain leads Obama by a +3% in one. And Obama leads McCain by +2% and +7% in the others. Advantage: Obama.

North Dakota only offers a +1% lead to McCain today. But…this is a BIG improvement for McCain:

The Ohio poll is really old—like there are 18 newer polls. It may also be an outlier, but it is old enough to make little difference.

Polling for the Oregon Senate race gives us four presidential piggybacked polls. Obama leads each by double-digits.

Two new Pennsylvania polls were released today. In one, Obama leads McCain by +5%, and Obama leads by +10% in the other. This race has tightened ever so slightly this week, but Obama is still winning with better than 50% in most polls. McCain isn’t likely to change that:

It looks like McCain has won the battle for West Virginia. Today he gets a +13% lead.
This is his best lead in a long time. Obama has not led in the state since early October.

Senate Polls:

		Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
State	Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Democrat	Republican	Diff
Alaska	Research 2000	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	58	36	D+22
Colorado	Public Policy Polling	28-Oct	30-Oct	2023	2.2	56	41	D+15
Colorado	CNN/Time	23-Oct	28-Oct	744	3.5	53	43	D+10
Georgia	Rasmussen	30-Oct	30-Oct	500	4.5	43	48	R+5
Georgia	Research 2000	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	46	47	R+1
Georgia	CNN/Time	23-Oct	28-Oct	690	3.5	44	53	R+9
Kentucky	Research 2000	27-Oct	29-Oct	600	4.0	44	47	R+3
Michigan	Public Policy Polling	28-Oct	30-Oct	1532	2.5	58	36	D+22
Michigan	Strategic Vision	27-Oct	29-Oct	1200	3.0	56	33	D+23
Michigan	EPIC/MRA	26-Oct	28-Oct	600	4.0	54	38	D+16
Minnesota	Public Policy Polling	28-Oct	30-Oct	1050	3.0	45	40	D+5
Minnesota	Minnesota Public Radio	24-Oct	28-Oct	451	4.6	41	37	D+4
Minnesota	Research 2000	27-Oct	29-Oct	600	4.0	40	43	R+3
Mississippi	Research 2000	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	44	51	R+7
New Hampshire	Strategic Vision	27-Oct	29-Oct	800	3.5	48	41	D+7
New Hampshire	Research 2000	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	52	42	D+10
New Hampshire	SurveyUSA	29-Oct	30-Oct	682	3.6	53	40	D+13
New Hampshire	Rasmussen	30-Oct	30-Oct	700	4.0	52	44	D+8
New Hampshire	ARG	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	53	41	D+12
New Jersey	Fairleigh Dickenson	23-Oct	29-Oct	852	3.5	52	32	D+20
New Jersey	SurveyUSA	29-Oct	30-Oct	632	4.0	52	37	D+15
New Mexico	Public Policy Polling	28-Oct	30-Oct	1537	2.5	58	39	D+19
North Carolina	Research 2000	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	50	45	D+5
North Carolina	Elon	27-Oct	30-Oct	797	3.5	44	37	D+7
North Carolina	CNN/Time	23-Oct	28-Oct	667	4.0	53	44	D+9
Oklahoma	SurveyUSA	28-Oct	30-Oct	594	4.0	36	56	R+20
Oregon	Public Policy Polling	28-Oct	30-Oct	1424	2.6	51	43	D+8
Oregon	Rasmussen	30-Oct	30-Oct	500	4.5	49	46	D+3
Oregon	Research 2000	27-Oct	29-Oct	600	4.0	48	42	D+6
Oregon	SurveyUSA	29-Oct	30-Oct	700	3.7	49	42	D+7
Virginia	CNN/Time	23-Oct	28-Oct	721	3.5	63	35	D+28
West Virginia	Public Policy Polling	28-Oct	30-Oct	2128	2.1	58	40	D+18
Wyoming	Research 2000	27-Oct	29-Oct	500	4.5	35	62	R+27
Wyoming	Research 2000	27-Oct	29-Oct	500	4.5	35	60	R+25

Today Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens (R) made the remarkable statement that he has not been convicted of anything—because they are filing an appeal. Huh. It looks like Alaskans are not buying his spin. His opponent, Mark Begich (D), has a nice +22% lead over Uncle Ted:

The Georgia race is between Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) and Jim Martin (D). National Public Radio’s All Things Considered had a nice bit on this race this evening. Chambliss gets +5%, +1% and +9% over Martin today. There is a good chance that, even if Chambliss wins, he will not get a 50% majority. Then there will be a run-off election.

The Kentucky race between Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) and Bruce Lunsford (D) is still close and stuck in the small single-digit range. McConnell gets a +3% edge over Lunsford:

One of the closest races in the country is in Minnesota. The race is between Sen. Norm Coleman (R), Al Franken (D), and a third party candidate. Of the three polls today, two break for Franken and one for Coleman. Franken leads in the most recent poll:

The Mississippi race between Sen. Roger Wicker (R) and Ronnie Musgrove (D) may be tightening up again. Today Wicker is down to a +7% lead. He had a +11% lead in the previous Rasmussen poll, and a +13% in the Univ. S. Alabama poll before that. And before that, Wicker was only getting +1% and +2% leads:

The New Hampshire race between Sen. John Sununu (R) and Jeanne Shaheen (D) is looking mighty safe for Shaheen. Today she gets +7%, +8%, +10%, +12% and +13%:

That North Carolina race between Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) and Kay Hagan (D) just keeps looking stronger for Hagan. She leads in all three polls today (+5%, +7% and +9%). She has now lead in the last eight polls and 15 of the last 16 polls. Dole may be hurting herself with the nasty campaigning:

The Oregon race between Sen. Gordon Smith (R) and Jeff Merkley (D) also keeps getting better for Merkley. Today Merkley leads by +3%, +6%, +7% and +8%. That is quite a run. In fact, one must go back 14 polls—way back to mid-September—to find Smith in the lead:

Gubernatorial Polls:

		Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
State	Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Democrat	Republican	Diff
Indiana	SurveyUSA	27-Oct	30-Oct	900	3.5	38	55	R+17
Indiana	Selzer	26-Oct	28-Oct	606	4.0	36	54	R+18
Montana	Research 2000	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	58	40	D+18
New Hampshire	Strategic Vision	27-Oct	29-Oct	800	3.5	67	24	D+43
New Hampshire	Research 2000	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	64	32	D+32
New Hampshire	SurveyUSA	29-Oct	30-Oct	682	3.6	65	28	D+37
New Hampshire	ARG	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	68	28	D+40
North Carolina	Research 2000	28-Oct	30-Oct	600	4.0	49	44	D+5
North Carolina	Elon	27-Oct	30-Oct	797	3.5	40	40	tie
West Virginia	Public Policy Polling	28-Oct	30-Oct	2128	2.1	69	27	D+42

The North Carolina race is between Bev Perdue (D) and Pat McCrory (R), and Perdue leads by +5% in one poll today. The other is a tie. But the recent polling suggests an advantage for Perdue:

I’ll post a new simulation analysis shortly.