Friday, October 31, 2008 at 10:55 pm by Darryl
There were lots and lots of polls released today. In the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain we have 42 new polls representing 23 states. No big surprises in the race—which is good news for Obama.
In Senate races there were 34 new polls covering 16 states. And we even have a banner day for gubernatorial polls…ten polls in five states.
I’ll be brief in the text and generous with the graphs today.
|Colorado||Public Policy Polling||28-Oct||30-Oct||2023||2.2||54||44||O+10|
|Michigan||Public Policy Polling||28-Oct||30-Oct||1532||2.5||55||42||O+13|
|Minnesota||Public Policy Polling||28-Oct||30-Oct||1050||3.0||57||41||O+16|
|New Hampshire||Strategic Vision||27-Oct||29-Oct||800||3.5||50||41||O+9|
|New Hampshire||Research 2000||28-Oct||30-Oct||600||4.0||51||44||O+7|
|New Jersey||Fairleigh Dickenson||23-Oct||29-Oct||852||3.5||53||35||O+18|
|New Mexico||Public Policy Polling||28-Oct||30-Oct||1537||2.5||58||41||O+17|
|North Carolina**||Insider Advantage||29-Oct||29-Oct||814||3.4||48||48||tie|
|North Carolina||Research 2000||28-Oct||30-Oct||600||4.0||47||45||O+2|
|North Dakota||Research 2000||28-Oct||29-Oct||500||4.5||46||47||M+1|
|Oregon||Public Policy Polling||28-Oct||30-Oct||1424||2.6||57||42||O+15|
|West Virginia||Public Policy Polling||28-Oct||30-Oct||2128||2.1||42||55||M+13|
** Corrected—The percentages were swapped between two Insider Advantage polls.
The polls support some notion of trouble for McCain in his home state of Arizona, with a +1% and a +4%:
Do we even need to discuss Colorado? Obama gets a +10% and a +7%.
There might be trouble brewing in Georgia, too. McCain only manages a +5% and a +3%.
Indiana is tied at 47% each! A slightly newer Rasmussen poll has McCain up by +3% over Obama:
In Missouri we get two new ties, making three ties in a row. Since 20-Oct neither candidate has gotten over +2.5%:
Montana is also close. One poll gives McCain a +4%, and the other gives him a +3%. Who knew that Montana has so many latte-sipping elitist liberals?!?
Five polls in New Hampshire today? Huh. They are all large single-digit or low double-digit leads for Obama.
The three North Carolina polls split. McCain leads Obama by a +3% in one. And Obama leads McCain by +2% and +7% in the others. Advantage: Obama.
North Dakota only offers a +1% lead to McCain today. But…this is a BIG improvement for McCain:
The Ohio poll is really old—like there are 18 newer polls. It may also be an outlier, but it is old enough to make little difference.
Polling for the Oregon Senate race gives us four presidential piggybacked polls. Obama leads each by double-digits.
Two new Pennsylvania polls were released today. In one, Obama leads McCain by +5%, and Obama leads by +10% in the other. This race has tightened ever so slightly this week, but Obama is still winning with better than 50% in most polls. McCain isn’t likely to change that:
It looks like McCain has won the battle for West Virginia. Today he gets a +13% lead.
This is his best lead in a long time. Obama has not led in the state since early October.
|Colorado||Public Policy Polling||28-Oct||30-Oct||2023||2.2||56||41||D+15|
|Michigan||Public Policy Polling||28-Oct||30-Oct||1532||2.5||58||36||D+22|
|Minnesota||Public Policy Polling||28-Oct||30-Oct||1050||3.0||45||40||D+5|
|Minnesota||Minnesota Public Radio||24-Oct||28-Oct||451||4.6||41||37||D+4|
|New Hampshire||Strategic Vision||27-Oct||29-Oct||800||3.5||48||41||D+7|
|New Hampshire||Research 2000||28-Oct||30-Oct||600||4.0||52||42||D+10|
|New Jersey||Fairleigh Dickenson||23-Oct||29-Oct||852||3.5||52||32||D+20|
|New Mexico||Public Policy Polling||28-Oct||30-Oct||1537||2.5||58||39||D+19|
|North Carolina||Research 2000||28-Oct||30-Oct||600||4.0||50||45||D+5|
|Oregon||Public Policy Polling||28-Oct||30-Oct||1424||2.6||51||43||D+8|
|West Virginia||Public Policy Polling||28-Oct||30-Oct||2128||2.1||58||40||D+18|
Today Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens (R) made the remarkable statement that he has not been convicted of anything—because they are filing an appeal. Huh. It looks like Alaskans are not buying his spin. His opponent, Mark Begich (D), has a nice +22% lead over Uncle Ted:
The Georgia race is between Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) and Jim Martin (D). National Public Radio’s All Things Considered had a nice bit on this race this evening. Chambliss gets +5%, +1% and +9% over Martin today. There is a good chance that, even if Chambliss wins, he will not get a 50% majority. Then there will be a run-off election.
The Kentucky race between Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) and Bruce Lunsford (D) is still close and stuck in the small single-digit range. McConnell gets a +3% edge over Lunsford:
One of the closest races in the country is in Minnesota. The race is between Sen. Norm Coleman (R), Al Franken (D), and a third party candidate. Of the three polls today, two break for Franken and one for Coleman. Franken leads in the most recent poll:
The Mississippi race between Sen. Roger Wicker (R) and Ronnie Musgrove (D) may be tightening up again. Today Wicker is down to a +7% lead. He had a +11% lead in the previous Rasmussen poll, and a +13% in the Univ. S. Alabama poll before that. And before that, Wicker was only getting +1% and +2% leads:
The New Hampshire race between Sen. John Sununu (R) and Jeanne Shaheen (D) is looking mighty safe for Shaheen. Today she gets +7%, +8%, +10%, +12% and +13%:
That North Carolina race between Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) and Kay Hagan (D) just keeps looking stronger for Hagan. She leads in all three polls today (+5%, +7% and +9%). She has now lead in the last eight polls and 15 of the last 16 polls. Dole may be hurting herself with the nasty campaigning:
The Oregon race between Sen. Gordon Smith (R) and Jeff Merkley (D) also keeps getting better for Merkley. Today Merkley leads by +3%, +6%, +7% and +8%. That is quite a run. In fact, one must go back 14 polls—way back to mid-September—to find Smith in the lead:
|New Hampshire||Strategic Vision||27-Oct||29-Oct||800||3.5||67||24||D+43|
|New Hampshire||Research 2000||28-Oct||30-Oct||600||4.0||64||32||D+32|
|North Carolina||Research 2000||28-Oct||30-Oct||600||4.0||49||44||D+5|
|West Virginia||Public Policy Polling||28-Oct||30-Oct||2128||2.1||69||27||D+42|
The North Carolina race is between Bev Perdue (D) and Pat McCrory (R), and Perdue leads by +5% in one poll today. The other is a tie. But the recent polling suggests an advantage for Perdue:
I’ll post a new simulation analysis shortly.