Thursday, October 30, 2008 at 11:50 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Obama Widens His Lead Again
| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 369 electoral votes | Mean of 169 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 362 to 176 electoral votes.
Today there were 32 new polls in 20 states released. Obama get the better of it.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 369 to McCain’s 169 electoral votes—that gives Obama 100 electoral votes in excess of what he needs to win. If an election had been held today, Obama would have won with near certainty.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 01 Mar 2008 to 30 Oct 2008, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).
- 100000 simulations: Obama wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 369.5 (16.1)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 168.5 (16.1)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 367 (338, 405)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 171 (133, 200)
This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 201 | |||
| Strong Obama | 137 | 338 | ||
| Leans Obama | 15 | 15 | 353 | |
| Weak Obama | 14 | 14 | 14 | 367 |
| Weak McCain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 |
| Leans McCain | 44 | 44 | 171 | |
| Strong McCain | 102 | 127 | ||
| Safe McCain | 25 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | McCain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | ‘04 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | McCain | % wins | % wins |
| Alabama | 9 | 1 | 630 | 37.1 | 62.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Alaska | 3 | 1 | 490 | 41.8 | 58.2 | 0.4 | 99.6 | |
| Arizona | 10 | 5 | 3280 | 47.7 | 52.3 | 2.8 | 97.2 | |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1 | 490 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 5.1 | 94.9 | |
| California | 55 | 2 | 1325 | 63.1 | 36.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Colorado | 9 | 7 | 4270 | 53.8 | 46.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1* | 437 | 64.3 | 35.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Delaware | 3 | 1 | 631 | 65.6 | 34.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| D.C. | 3 | 1* | 570 | 86.3 | 13.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Florida | 27 | 9 | 6239 | 51.9 | 48.1 | 97.9 | 2.1 | |
| Georgia | 15 | 3 | 1872 | 49.0 | 51.0 | 28.1 | 71.9 | |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 475 | 71.6 | 28.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 438 | 36.8 | 63.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Illinois | 21 | 1* | 752 | 62.8 | 37.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Indiana | 11 | 6 | 3468 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 24.6 | 75.4 | |
| Iowa | 7 | 2 | 1105 | 56.3 | 43.7 | 99.8 | 0.2 | |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 595 | 39.0 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Kentucky | 8 | 1 | 490 | 43.9 | 56.1 | 2.3 | 97.7 | |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1 | 394 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 31.5 | 68.5 | |
| Maine | 4 | 1* | 332 | 61.1 | 38.9 | 99.8 | 0.2 | |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 485 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 1 | 625 | 58.9 | 41.1 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| Michigan | 17 | 1 | 480 | 55.2 | 44.8 | 94.8 | 5.2 | |
| Minnesota | 10 | 3 | 1460 | 56.7 | 43.3 | 99.9 | 0.0 | |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1 | 490 | 45.9 | 54.1 | 10.3 | 89.7 | |
| Missouri | 11 | 4 | 2967 | 50.2 | 49.8 | 53.6 | 46.4 | |
| Montana | 3 | 2 | 1055 | 47.9 | 52.1 | 16.8 | 83.2 | |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1* | 465 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Nevada | 5 | 6 | 3443 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 6 | 3602 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| New Jersey | 15 | 2 | 1280 | 58.4 | 41.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| New Mexico | 5 | 1 | 490 | 55.1 | 44.9 | 94.0 | 6.0 | |
| New York | 31 | 1 | 601 | 65.2 | 34.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| North Carolina | 15 | 10 | 6651 | 50.7 | 49.3 | 79.1 | 20.9 | |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1* | 540 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 52.0 | 48.0 | |
| Ohio | 20 | 9 | 6291 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 1 | 695 | 36.1 | 63.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Oregon | 7 | 1 | 638 | 60.0 | 40.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 10 | 6633 | 55.6 | 44.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 564 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| South Carolina | 8 | 2 | 1008 | 45.2 | 54.8 | 1.9 | 98.1 | |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1 | 546 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 5.1 | 94.9 | |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1* | 552 | 41.3 | 58.7 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| Texas | 34 | 1* | 490 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 5.6 | 94.4 | |
| Utah | 5 | 1* | 564 | 30.9 | 69.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Vermont | 3 | 1 | 372 | 61.3 | 38.7 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| Virginia | 13 | 8 | 5222 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Washington | 11 | 2 | 1367 | 57.4 | 42.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| West Virginia | 5 | 2 | 1096 | 45.6 | 54.4 | 1.9 | 98.1 | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 4 | 2400 | 55.8 | 44.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1* | 573 | 38.9 | 61.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
Friday, October 31st, 2008 at 12:02 am
I am trying to learn Georgia on my Moind to Sing on Tuesday Night.
have oyu had LaMaze training? Push! Push!