Thursday, October 30, 2008 at 11:21 pm by Darryl
There were 32 polls representing 20 states released today in the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain. All-in-all, it looks like a fair day for Obama. No real surprises and McCain even slips a bit at a time when elections tend to tighten-up.
We also get 15 new Senate race polls for 12 states and a couple of gubernatorial polls. I’ll have to be brief today.
|Minnesota||Minnesota Public Radio||24-Oct||28-Oct||451||5.0||56||37||O+19|
|New Hampshire||Suffolk U.||27-Oct||29-Oct||600||4.0||53||40||O+13|
|New Jersey||Research 2000||26-Oct||28-Oct||600||4.0||54||38||O+16|
|North Carolina||National Journal||23-Oct||27-Oct||400||4.9||47||43||O+4|
|South Carolina||NBC News||25-Oct||28-Oct||400||5.0||42||53||M+11|
There were a pair of Arizona polls today that offers McCain a +7% and a +4% edge. McCain is now spooked enough at the prospect of losing on his own turf that he is running robo-calls in Arizona:
With three (sort-of) Colorado polls weighing-in today, it looks like Obama has a real advantage. Obama is up by +4% in one poll. The Marist poll enumerated separately the likely voters—who give him a +6%—and those who have already voted. The actual voters give Obama a +18% (59% to 41%). I treat these as two separate polls. It is worth noting that McCain has led in none of the 19 October polls.
Remarkably, there is only one Florida poll today, and Obama is up by +4%. This makes eleven polls in a row in which Obama has led.
Indiana give McCain a slim +3% over Obama today. Yesterday, a poll from Selzer gave Obama a tiny +0.6% edge over McCain. They were tied before that in a Research 2000 poll. The most remarkable things is that we are even discussing Indiana as if it was a swing state. But it is!
Then there is Louisiana, where McCain squeaks by with a slender +3%, and way under 50% (he leads 43% to 40%). Yesterday’s Southeastern Poll has McCain up by +12.3%. And a recent Rasmussen poll has McCain up by +16%. So maybe today’s poll is a outlier:
In Montana, McCain leads Obama by a “delicate” +4% (50% to 46%). The three previous polls, from Mason-Dixon , MSU-Billings , and Research 2000 also had +4%–two for McCain and one for Obama. Another mind-boggling concept—discussing Montana as a swing state:
In Nevada, Obama has a +7% (52% to 45%) lead over McCain today. Obama has led in all 14 October polls in the state.
We get four North Carolina polls today, and Obama leads in every one. He receives +6%, +4%, +2%, and +1% leads. The state is very close, but it looks like Obama has the advantage. North Carolina is the new Florida:
Two Ohio polls that both go to Obama. He gets +4% in one poll and +7% in the other. Obama has led in the last eleven consecutive Ohio polls. He certainly has the advantage now:
Both Pennsylvania polls go to Obama, by +12% and +4%. That latter is the smallest lead Obama has had all month (that is…in 26 October polls). Still…Obama is easily in the lead here.
South Carolina is surprisingly close. McCain leads by +11% in one poll and +8% in the other.
Two new Virginia polls go to Obama. He gets a slim +4% in both of them +4%. The margin is narrowing up, but Obama has gotten over 50% in each of the last four polls:
In Wisconsin, Obama has a +11% in one poll and a +16 % in the other. That’s pretty solid with both well over 50% for Obama.
|New Hampshire||Suffolk U.||27-Oct||29-Oct||600||4.0||48||39||D+9|
|New Jersey||Research 2000||26-Oct||28-Oct||600||4.0||56||39||D+17|
|North Carolina||National Journal||23-Oct||27-Oct||400||4.9||43||37||D+6|
The Colorado race is between Bob Schaffer (R) and Mark Udall (D).
Colorado puts Udall over Schaffer by a double-digit +15% (51% to 36%). In fact, all but one of the seven October polls have Udall up by double digits.
The Georgia race between Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) and Jim Martin (D) has been stuck at +2% in Chambliss’ favor for awhile. Today Chambliss gets a +6% edge.
The Idaho race is between Jim Risch (R) and Larry LaRocco (D), and Risch leads by +12%. It is a big lead, but much smaller that the previous poll—a mid-September poll by Research 2000 that gave Risch a +23% advantage.
Kentucky is turning out to be an interesting race. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) battles it out against Bruce Lunsford (D). Today McConnell is up by +7% in one poll and +5% in the other. That is pretty damn narrow:
The Louisiana race is between Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) and John Kennedy (R). Landrieu takes a +15% lead over Kennedy. Yesterday, a Southeastern Poll gave her +19.3% lead:
The very close Minnesota race has Sen. Norm Coleman (R) fighting for his political life against former satirist Al Franken (D). Coleman turns up a +6% lead today, making it two leads in a row:
In New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu (R) is getting beat by Jeanne Shaheen (D). She leads by +9% today, and she has led in all nine October polls.
The New Mexico race is between Steve Pearce (R) and Tom Udall (D). Udall is up by +15% today. In fact, he has led by double digits for the past eight polls—stretching back to mid-September.
We get a North Carolina trifecta today in the race between Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) and Kay Hagan (D). Hagan leads by +6%, +6%, and +2%. The race is looking good for Hagan:
|New Hampshire||Suffolk U.||27-Oct||29-Oct||600||4.0||67||15||D+52|
The North Carolina gubernatorial race is between Bev Perdue (D) and Pat McCrory (R). Perdue leads by a slim +2% today. She led by +3% in the previous poll, by Public Policy Polling. And they were tied before that. My squintometer says that Perdue has wrestled her way back into the lead:
I’ll post a new simulation analysis shortly.