Thursday Polling Round-up

There were 32 polls representing 20 states released today in the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain. All-in-all, it looks like a fair day for Obama. No real surprises and McCain even slips a bit at a time when elections tend to tighten-up.

We also get 15 new Senate race polls for 12 states and a couple of gubernatorial polls. I’ll have to be brief today.

Presidential Polls:

Start End Sample % % %
State Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Arizona CNN/Time 23-Oct 28-Oct 807 3.5 46 53 M+7
Arizona Mason-Dixon 27-Oct 28-Oct 625 4.0 44 48 M+4
California Field Poll 18-Oct 28-Oct 966 3.3 55 33 O+22
Colorado National Journal 23-Oct 27-Oct 400 4.9 48 44 O+4
Colorado Marist 27-Oct 28-Oct 682 4.0 51 45 O+6
Colorado Marist 27-Oct 28-Oct 336 5.5 59 41 O+18
Florida National Journal 23-Oct 27-Oct 400 4.9 48 44 O+4
Idaho Harstad 19-Oct 22-Oct 503 4.4 32 55 M+23
Indiana Rasmussen 29-Oct 29-Oct 500 4.5 46 49 M+3
Iowa SurveyUSA 28-Oct 29-Oct 658 3.9 55 40 O+15
Kentucky Rasmussen 29-Oct 29-Oct 500 4.5 43 55 M+12
Louisiana Loyola U 24-Oct 26-Oct 474 4.5 40 43 M+3
Minnesota Mason-Dixon 27-Oct 28-Oct 625 4.0 48 40 O+8
Minnesota Minnesota Public Radio 24-Oct 28-Oct 451 5.0 56 37 O+19
Montana Rasmussen 29-Oct 29-Oct 500 4.5 46 50 M+4
Nevada CNN/Time 23-Oct 28-Oct 684 4.0 52 45 O+7
New Hampshire Suffolk U. 27-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.0 53 40 O+13
New Jersey Research 2000 26-Oct 28-Oct 600 4.0 54 38 O+16
North Carolina CNN/Time 23-Oct 28-Oct 667 4.0 52 46 O+6
North Carolina National Journal 23-Oct 27-Oct 400 4.9 47 43 O+4
North Carolina Rasmussen 29-Oct 29-Oct 700 4.0 50 48 O+2
North Carolina Civitas 27-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.2 47 46 O+1
Ohio CNN/Time 23-Oct 28-Oct 779 3.5 51 47 O+4
Ohio National Journal 23-Oct 27-Oct 400 4.9 48 41 O+7
Pennsylvania CNN/Time 23-Oct 28-Oct 768 3.5 55 43 O+12
Pennsylvania Mason-Dixon 27-Oct 28-Oct 625 4.0 47 43 O+4
South Carolina NBC News 25-Oct 28-Oct 400 5.0 42 53 M+11
South Carolina SurveyUSA 28-Oct 29-Oct 654 3.9 44 52 M+8
Virginia National Journal 23-Oct 27-Oct 400 4.9 48 44 O+4
Virginia Marist 26-Oct 27-Oct 671 4.0 51 47 O+4
Wisconsin Research 2000 27-Oct 28-Oct 600 4.0 53 42 O+11
Wisconsin SurveyUSA 28-Oct 29-Oct 667 3.9 55 39 O+16

There were a pair of Arizona polls today that offers McCain a +7% and a +4% edge. McCain is now spooked enough at the prospect of losing on his own turf that he is running robo-calls in Arizona:

With three (sort-of) Colorado polls weighing-in today, it looks like Obama has a real advantage. Obama is up by +4% in one poll. The Marist poll enumerated separately the likely voters—who give him a +6%—and those who have already voted. The actual voters give Obama a +18% (59% to 41%). I treat these as two separate polls. It is worth noting that McCain has led in none of the 19 October polls.

Remarkably, there is only one Florida poll today, and Obama is up by +4%. This makes eleven polls in a row in which Obama has led.

Indiana give McCain a slim +3% over Obama today. Yesterday, a poll from Selzer gave Obama a tiny +0.6% edge over McCain. They were tied before that in a Research 2000 poll. The most remarkable things is that we are even discussing Indiana as if it was a swing state. But it is!

Then there is Louisiana, where McCain squeaks by with a slender +3%, and way under 50% (he leads 43% to 40%). Yesterday’s Southeastern Poll has McCain up by +12.3%. And a recent Rasmussen poll has McCain up by +16%. So maybe today’s poll is a outlier:

In Montana, McCain leads Obama by a “delicate” +4% (50% to 46%). The three previous polls, from Mason-Dixon , MSU-Billings , and Research 2000 also had +4%–two for McCain and one for Obama. Another mind-boggling concept—discussing Montana as a swing state:

In Nevada, Obama has a +7% (52% to 45%) lead over McCain today. Obama has led in all 14 October polls in the state.

We get four North Carolina polls today, and Obama leads in every one. He receives +6%, +4%, +2%, and +1% leads. The state is very close, but it looks like Obama has the advantage. North Carolina is the new Florida:

Two Ohio polls that both go to Obama. He gets +4% in one poll and +7% in the other. Obama has led in the last eleven consecutive Ohio polls. He certainly has the advantage now:

Both Pennsylvania polls go to Obama, by +12% and +4%. That latter is the smallest lead Obama has had all month (that is…in 26 October polls). Still…Obama is easily in the lead here.

South Carolina is surprisingly close. McCain leads by +11% in one poll and +8% in the other.

Two new Virginia polls go to Obama. He gets a slim +4% in both of them +4%. The margin is narrowing up, but Obama has gotten over 50% in each of the last four polls:

In Wisconsin, Obama has a +11% in one poll and a +16 % in the other. That’s pretty solid with both well over 50% for Obama.

Senate Polls:

Start End Sample % % %
State Poll date date size MOE Democrat Republican Diff
Colorado National Journal 23-Oct 27-Oct 400 4.9 51 36 D+15
Georgia Mason-Dixon 22-Oct 23-Oct 625 4.0 39 45 R+6
Idaho Harstad 19-Oct 22-Oct 503 4.4 33 45 R+12
Iowa SurveyUSA 28-Oct 29-Oct 658 3.9 61 35 D+26
Kentucky Rasmussen 29-Oct 29-Oct 500 4.5 44 51 R+7
Kentucky Mason-Dixon 27-Oct 29-Oct 817 3.4 42 47 R+5
Louisiana Loyola U 24-Oct 26-Oct 474 4.5 49 34 D+15
Minnesota Mason-Dixon 27-Oct 28-Oct 625 4.0 36 42 R+6
New Hampshire Suffolk U. 27-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.0 48 39 D+9
New Jersey Research 2000 26-Oct 28-Oct 600 4.0 56 39 D+17
New Mexico Rasmussen 28-Oct 28-Oct 500 4.5 56 41 D+15
North Carolina National Journal 23-Oct 27-Oct 400 4.9 43 37 D+6
North Carolina Rasmussen 29-Oct 29-Oct 700 4.0 52 46 D+6
North Carolina Civitas 27-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.2 45 43 D+2
South Carolina SurveyUSA 28-Oct 29-Oct 654 3.9 39 58 R+19

The Colorado race is between Bob Schaffer (R) and Mark Udall (D).
Colorado puts Udall over Schaffer by a double-digit +15% (51% to 36%). In fact, all but one of the seven October polls have Udall up by double digits.

The Georgia race between Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) and Jim Martin (D) has been stuck at +2% in Chambliss’ favor for awhile. Today Chambliss gets a +6% edge.

The Idaho race is between Jim Risch (R) and Larry LaRocco (D), and Risch leads by +12%. It is a big lead, but much smaller that the previous poll—a mid-September poll by Research 2000 that gave Risch a +23% advantage.

Kentucky is turning out to be an interesting race. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) battles it out against Bruce Lunsford (D). Today McConnell is up by +7% in one poll and +5% in the other. That is pretty damn narrow:

The Louisiana race is between Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) and John Kennedy (R). Landrieu takes a +15% lead over Kennedy. Yesterday, a Southeastern Poll gave her +19.3% lead:

The very close Minnesota race has Sen. Norm Coleman (R) fighting for his political life against former satirist Al Franken (D). Coleman turns up a +6% lead today, making it two leads in a row:

In New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu (R) is getting beat by Jeanne Shaheen (D). She leads by +9% today, and she has led in all nine October polls.

The New Mexico race is between Steve Pearce (R) and Tom Udall (D). Udall is up by +15% today. In fact, he has led by double digits for the past eight polls—stretching back to mid-September.

We get a North Carolina trifecta today in the race between Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) and Kay Hagan (D). Hagan leads by +6%, +6%, and +2%. The race is looking good for Hagan:

Gubernatorial Polls:

Start End Sample % % %
State Poll date date size MOE Democrat Republican Diff
New Hampshire Suffolk U. 27-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.0 67 15 D+52
North Carolina Civitas 27-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.2 45 43 D+2

The North Carolina gubernatorial race is between Bev Perdue (D) and Pat McCrory (R). Perdue leads by a slim +2% today. She led by +3% in the previous poll, by Public Policy Polling. And they were tied before that. My squintometer says that Perdue has wrestled her way back into the lead:

I’ll post a new simulation analysis shortly.

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