Tuesday Polls

There were 21 new polls from 17 states in the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain released today. The polls are a mixed bag.

There were six new senatorial polls and a couple of gubernatorial released today, too.

Presidential Polls:

Start End Sample % % %
State Poll date date size MOE Obama McCain Diff
Arkansas Rasmussen 27-Oct 27-Oct 500 4.5 44 54 M+10
Colorado Insider Advantage 26-Oct 26-Oct 636 3.8 53 45 O+8
Florida LA Times 25-Oct 27-Oct 639 4.0 50 43 O+7
Georgia PollPosition 27-Oct 27-Oct 637 3.8 47 48 M+1
Indiana Research 2000 23-Oct 25-Oct 600 4.0 48 47 O+1
Indiana Howey-Gauge 23-Oct 24-Oct 600 4.1 45 47 M+2
Louisiana Southeastern Poll 20-Oct 23-Oct 503 4.5 38.3 50.6 M+12.3
Maine Market Decisions 13-Oct 26-Oct 387 5.0 52.4 33.3 O+19.1
Mississippi Rasmussen 27-Oct 27-Oct 500 4.5 45 53 M+8
Montana Mason-Dixon 23-Oct 25-Oct 625 4.0 44 48 M+4
Nevada Suffolk 26-Oct 26-Oct 450 50 40 O+10
Nevada Rasmussen 27-Oct 27-Oct 700 4.0 50 46 O+4
New Hampshire Mason-Dixon 23-Oct 25-Oct 625 4.0 50 39 O+11
New Jersey Strategic Vision 24-Oct 26-Oct 800 3.0 53 38 O+15
North Carolina Mason-Dixon 23-Oct 25-Oct 625 4.0 47 47 tie
Ohio SurveyUSA 26-Oct 27-Oct 648 3.9 49 45 O+4
Ohio LA Times 25-Oct 27-Oct 644 4.0 49 40 O+9
Pennsylvania Insider Advantage 26-Oct 26-Oct 588 4.0 51 42 O+9
Pennsylvania Rasmussen 27-Oct 27-Oct 500 4.5 53 46 O+7
Virginia Roanoke College 19-Oct 26-Oct 614 4.0 48 39 O+9
Wisconsin Strategic Vision 24-Oct 26-Oct 800 3.0 50 41 O+9

Arkansas puts McCain over Obama by a moderate +10%. There is a slight tightening of this race over the past month, but not enough for Obama to be a serious threat.

Colorado gives Obama a fair lead over McCain by +8%. The previous poll, by Rasmussen has Obama leading McCain by only +4%. A concurrent Rocky Mountian Poll has Obama at +12%.

Florida gives Obama a +7% lead over McCain today. Obama strengthens his position from a slightly older poll from Rasmussen that gave Obama a fragile +4%, and a Datamar poll that offered Obama a +4.8% edge:

In Georgia, McCain has a slight +1% (48% to 47%) lead over Obama. The previous poll, by PollPosition put Obama over McCain by+1%. Whodathunk!!!

In Indiana, Obama leads by +1% in one poll and McCain leads by +2% in another (the polls are the same size). poll from Zogby gives McCain a +6.2% lead over Obama. It looks close but with a small edge for McCain:

Louisiana supports McCain over Obama by +12.3%. This is slightly narrower than the previous poll, by Rasmussen, that gave McCain a +16%.

Maine has Obama up by +19.1% over McCain today. Mississippi gives McCain a reasonable +8% lead over Obama.

In Montana, McCain leads Obama by a rather weak +4%. The previous poll, by MSU-Billings, gave Obama the +4%. And before that, a poll from Research 2000 , gave the +4% to McCain. Overall, though, McCain has the edge:

In Nevada, Obama has a +10% lead in one poll and a +4% lead in the other:

New Hampshire gives Obama a reasonable lead over McCain by +11%. A newer poll from UNH supports Obama with a +16% lead.

In New Jersey, Obama leads McCain by a solid +15%.

North Carolina is all tied up at 47% today. Three newer polls give McCain a +1%, give Obama a +1%, and give Obama a +3.3%. This one is too close to call:

Ohio offers Obama a +4% edge in one poll and a +9% in another. Obama now has six consecutive leads in a row:

Pennsylvania gives Obama a moderate lead of +9% in one poll and a modest-er lead of +7% in the other. Obama has led in every one of the 20 October polls.

Virginia has Obama up by a reasonable +9% over McCain, but there are four newer (previously reported) polls. This makes 19 consecutive leads for Obama:

In Wisconsin, Obama leads McCain by +9%. Overall Wisconsin looks pretty solid for Obama.

Senate Polls:

Start End Sample % % %
State Poll date date size MOE Democrat Republican Diff
Georgia PollPosition 23-Oct 23-Oct 615 3.8 42 44 R+2
Louisiana Southeastern Poll 20-Oct 23-Oct 503 4.5 53.2 33.9 D+19.3
Maine Market Decisions 13-Oct 26-Oct 387 5.0 36.6 54.0 R+17.4
Mississippi Rasmussen 27-Oct 27-Oct 500 4.5 43 54 R+11
New Jersey Strategic Vision 24-Oct 26-Oct 800 3.0 49 41 D+8
Virginia Roanoke College 19-Oct 26-Oct 614 4.0 57 22 D+35

The Georgia race is between Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) and Jim Martin (D). Chambliss takes another +2% lead over Martin:

The Louisiana race is between Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) and John Kennedy (R). Landrieu has a solid +19.3% edge over Kennedy today.

The Maine race is between Sen. Susan Collins (R) and Tom Allen (D), and Collins holds a solid lead of +17.4%.

The Mississippi race is between Sen. Roger Wicker (R) and Ronnie Musgrove (D). Wicker has a decent +11% lead over Musgrove. The close race of September and early October is gone:

The New Jersey race is between Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) and Dick Zimmer (R).
New Jersey gives Frank Lautenberg a fair +8% (49% to 41%) lead over Dick Zimmer.

The Virginia race between Jim Gilmore (R) and Mark Warner (D) is over. Warner is up by +35% today.

Gubernatorial Polls:

Start End Sample % % %
State Poll date date size MOE Democrat Republican Diff
Indiana Howey-Gauge 23-Oct 24-Oct 600 4.1 30 61 R+31
North Carolina Public Policy Polling 25-Oct 26-Oct 1038 2.8 47 44 D+3

The Indiana race is between Gov. Mitchell Daniels Jr (R) and Jill Long Thompson (D). Daniels is in a very strong position in all recent polling. Today’s +31% seals the deal.

The North Carolina race is between Bev Perdue (D) and Pat McCrory (R), and has Perdue up by +3% today. The previous poll, by Rasmussen had McCrory up by +4%. This race is a little crazy close:

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