Sunday, October 26, 2008 at 11:19 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Obama Strengthens His Lead Over McCain
| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 376 electoral votes | Mean of 162 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 373 to 165 electoral votes (on average). Obama almost certainly would have won an election held yesterday.
With the addition of fifteen new polls from thirteen states today, Obama earns a couple more electoral votes….
A Monte Carlo analysis consisting of 100,000 simulated elections shows Obama winning them all. Obama receives (on average) 376 to McCain’s 162 electoral votes. Obama would have a near-100.0% probability of winning an election held today.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
The distribution has two strong modes…one at 378 and another at 381. Together these two outcomes account for about 28% of the wins.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 26 Feb 2008 to 26 Oct 2008, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).
- 100000 simulations: Obama wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 375.6 (16.1)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 162.4 (16.1)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 378 (340, 412)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 160 (126, 198)
This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 218 | |||
| Strong Obama | 114 | 332 | ||
| Leans Obama | 46 | 46 | 378 | |
| Weak Obama | 3 | 3 | 3 | 381 |
| Weak McCain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 |
| Leans McCain | 10 | 10 | 157 | |
| Strong McCain | 115 | 147 | ||
| Safe McCain | 32 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | McCain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | ‘04 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | McCain | % wins | % wins |
| Alabama | 9 | 1* | 533 | 38.6 | 61.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Alaska | 3 | 1 | 475 | 44.2 | 55.8 | 3.5 | 96.5 | |
| Arizona | 10 | 1 | 504 | 47.6 | 52.4 | 21.3 | 78.7 | |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1 | 558 | 44.1 | 55.9 | 2.2 | 97.8 | |
| California | 55 | 1* | 1055 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Colorado | 9 | 4 | 2668 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 99.4 | 0.6 | |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1 | 437 | 64.3 | 35.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Delaware | 3 | 1* | 485 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 99.1 | 0.9 | |
| D.C. | 3 | 1* | 570 | 86.3 | 13.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Florida | 27 | 9 | 7463 | 50.7 | 49.3 | 81.5 | 18.5 | |
| Georgia | 15 | 5 | 2952 | 48.0 | 52.0 | 6.8 | 93.2 | |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 475 | 71.6 | 28.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 475 | 34.7 | 65.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Illinois | 21 | 3 | 1723 | 64.0 | 36.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Indiana | 11 | 3 | 2432 | 52.2 | 47.8 | 93.9 | 6.1 | |
| Iowa | 7 | 4 | 2143 | 56.5 | 43.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 576 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 1.6 | 98.4 | |
| Kentucky | 8 | 3 | 1552 | 43.4 | 56.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1 | 490 | 41.8 | 58.2 | 0.4 | 99.6 | |
| Maine | 4 | 2 | 1000 | 59.5 | 40.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 485 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 1 | 348 | 60.9 | 39.1 | 99.8 | 0.2 | |
| Michigan | 17 | 2 | 880 | 60.3 | 39.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Minnesota | 10 | 6 | 3395 | 56.0 | 44.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1 | 320 | 41.9 | 58.1 | 2.0 | 98.0 | |
| Missouri | 11 | 5 | 3479 | 51.3 | 48.7 | 86.0 | 14.0 | |
| Montana | 3 | 1 | 338 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 72.9 | 27.1 | |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1* | 465 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Nevada | 5 | 3 | 1992 | 51.8 | 48.2 | 87.1 | 12.9 | |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 3 | 1905 | 54.7 | 45.3 | 99.8 | 0.2 | |
| New Jersey | 15 | 2 | 1722 | 61.0 | 39.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| New Mexico | 5 | 1* | 679 | 56.7 | 43.3 | 99.5 | 0.5 | |
| New York | 31 | 1 | 496 | 69.2 | 30.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| North Carolina | 15 | 8 | 5743 | 51.4 | 48.6 | 92.5 | 7.5 | |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1* | 540 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.3 | 49.7 | |
| Ohio | 20 | 10 | 7732 | 52.6 | 47.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 2 | 1260 | 35.2 | 64.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Oregon | 7 | 1* | 410 | 58.5 | 41.5 | 99.2 | 0.8 | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 8 | 5658 | 55.5 | 44.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 564 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1 | 485 | 44.3 | 55.7 | 4.3 | 95.7 | |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1 | 546 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 5.1 | 94.9 | |
| Tennessee | 11 | 2 | 1032 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Texas | 34 | 1 | 490 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 5.8 | 94.2 | |
| Utah | 5 | 1* | 564 | 30.9 | 69.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Vermont | 3 | 1* | 480 | 62.5 | 37.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Virginia | 13 | 5 | 3678 | 53.9 | 46.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Washington | 11 | 2 | 854 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| West Virginia | 5 | 6 | 3913 | 46.0 | 54.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 6 | 3122 | 55.6 | 44.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1 | 573 | 38.9 | 61.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
