Saturday, October 25, 2008 at 11:49 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Obama Up Very Slightly
| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 373 electoral votes | Mean of 165 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 372 to 166 electoral votes (on average).
Today we have eight new polls in seven states weighing in on the contest. Obama gains very slightly.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins them all. Obama receives (on average) 373 to McCain’s 165 electoral votes. If the election had been held today, Obama would win with near certainty.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 25 Feb 2008 to 25 Oct 2008, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).
- 100000 simulations: Obama wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 373.3 (15.5)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 164.7 (15.5)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 375 (342, 409)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 163 (129, 196)
This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 183 | |||
| Strong Obama | 160 | 343 | ||
| Leans Obama | 32 | 32 | 375 | |
| Weak Obama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 375 |
| Weak McCain | 6 | 6 | 6 | 163 |
| Leans McCain | 15 | 15 | 157 | |
| Strong McCain | 96 | 142 | ||
| Safe McCain | 46 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | McCain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | ‘04 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | McCain | % wins | % wins |
| Alabama | 9 | 1 | 533 | 38.6 | 61.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Alaska | 3 | 2 | 1045 | 41.9 | 58.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| Arizona | 10 | 1* | 485 | 39.2 | 60.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1 | 558 | 44.1 | 55.9 | 2.3 | 97.7 | |
| California | 55 | 2 | 1633 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Colorado | 9 | 4 | 2668 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 99.5 | 0.5 | |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1* | 475 | 58.9 | 41.1 | 99.7 | 0.3 | |
| Delaware | 3 | 1* | 485 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 99.3 | 0.7 | |
| D.C. | 3 | 1* | 570 | 86.3 | 13.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Florida | 27 | 9 | 7463 | 50.7 | 49.3 | 81.6 | 18.4 | |
| Georgia | 15 | 4 | 2377 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 12.4 | 87.6 | |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 475 | 71.6 | 28.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 475 | 34.7 | 65.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Illinois | 21 | 2 | 971 | 64.9 | 35.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Indiana | 11 | 3 | 2432 | 52.2 | 47.8 | 94.0 | 6.0 | |
| Iowa | 7 | 2 | 1016 | 55.8 | 44.2 | 99.4 | 0.6 | |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 576 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 1.3 | 98.7 | |
| Kentucky | 8 | 4 | 2104 | 43.1 | 56.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1 | 490 | 41.8 | 58.2 | 0.6 | 99.4 | |
| Maine | 4 | 2 | 1000 | 59.5 | 40.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 485 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 1 | 348 | 60.9 | 39.1 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| Michigan | 17 | 2 | 880 | 60.3 | 39.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Minnesota | 10 | 7 | 3941 | 56.2 | 43.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1 | 540 | 44.4 | 55.6 | 3.4 | 96.6 | |
| Missouri | 11 | 3 | 2150 | 52.0 | 48.0 | 90.2 | 9.8 | |
| Montana | 3 | 2 | 808 | 49.8 | 50.2 | 45.4 | 54.6 | |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1* | 465 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Nevada | 5 | 3 | 1992 | 51.8 | 48.2 | 86.6 | 13.4 | |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 2 | 1230 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 91.6 | 8.4 | |
| New Jersey | 15 | 3 | 2395 | 60.5 | 39.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| New Mexico | 5 | 1* | 679 | 56.7 | 43.3 | 99.5 | 0.5 | |
| New York | 31 | 1 | 496 | 69.2 | 30.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| North Carolina | 15 | 8 | 5743 | 51.4 | 48.6 | 92.3 | 7.7 | |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1 | 540 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 49.4 | 50.6 | |
| Ohio | 20 | 10 | 7732 | 52.6 | 47.4 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 2 | 1260 | 35.2 | 64.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Oregon | 7 | 1 | 410 | 58.5 | 41.5 | 99.4 | 0.6 | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 7 | 5105 | 55.4 | 44.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 564 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1 | 485 | 44.3 | 55.7 | 4.2 | 95.8 | |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1 | 546 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 5.1 | 94.9 | |
| Tennessee | 11 | 2 | 1032 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Texas | 34 | 1 | 490 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 5.3 | 94.7 | |
| Utah | 5 | 1* | 564 | 30.9 | 69.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Vermont | 3 | 1* | 480 | 62.5 | 37.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Virginia | 13 | 4 | 2521 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 99.6 | 0.4 | |
| Washington | 11 | 2 | 854 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| West Virginia | 5 | 6 | 3859 | 46.4 | 53.6 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 5 | 2647 | 56.0 | 44.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Wyoming | 3 | 2 | 1038 | 38.3 | 61.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
