Saturday, October 25, 2008 at 6:15 pm by Darryl
Saturday At the Polls
There were eight new polls for seven states today in the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain. Six new Senate polls rounds out the round-up.
Presidential Polls:
| Start | End | Sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Poll | date | date | size | MOE | Obama | McCain | Diff |
| Arkansas | Research 2000 | 21-Oct | 22-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 41 | 52 | M+11 |
| Colorado | Rocky Mountian Poll | 21-Oct | 23-Oct | 500 | 4.4 | 52 | 40 | O+12 |
| Minnesota | St. Cloud State | 14-Oct | 22-Oct | 509 | 4.6 | 42 | 37 | O+5 |
| New Jersey | Marist | 20-Oct | 21-Oct | 628 | 4.0 | 56 | 39 | O+17 |
| Ohio | Public Policy Polling | 21-Oct | 23-Oct | 993 | 3.1 | 51 | 44 | O+7 |
| Ohio | Ohio Poll | 18-Oct | 21-Oct | 886 | 3.3 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
| South Dakota | Research 2000 | 22-Oct | 24-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 41 | 50 | M+9 |
| Tennessee | Research 2000 | 21-Oct | 22-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 38 | 54 | M+16 |
Arkansas supports McCain over Obama by +11%. The previous U. Arkansas poll had McCain up by +15%, but it seems unlikely that Obama will be able to make sufficient progress in ten days.
In Colorado, Obama leads McCain by +12%. This is Obama’s first double-digit lead in awhile—a big gain:
Minnesota gives Obama a moderate lead over McCain by +5% (42% to 37%) in today’s poll. This is smaller than Obama has been doing in other polls and it comes from an infrequent pollster (and it is old). The poll is suspect.
New Jersey supports Obama over McCain by +17% (56% to 39%). That sounds about right from recent polling.
Ohio has Obama up by a modest +7% over McCain in one poll and +3% in another poll. Obama takes seven of the ten polls taken since 15-Oct:
McCain holds a modest lead in South Dakota with a +9%. There is very little polling in the state. The previous poll, by Mason-Dixon, was taken from 13-Oct to 15-Oct, McCain up by +7%. That’s it for October.
Tennessee gives McCain a solid +16%. McCain bounces back from the +12% he held in a recent Rasmussen poll.
Senate Polls:
| Start | End | Sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Poll | date | date | size | MOE | Democrat | Republican | Diff |
| Iowa | Rasmussen | 23-Oct | 23-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 57 | 41 | D+16 |
| Minnesota | St. Cloud State | 14-Oct | 22-Oct | 509 | 4.6 | 27 | 36 | R+9 |
| New Hampshire | Rasmussen | 23-Oct | 23-Oct | 700 | 4.0 | 52 | 46 | D+6 |
| New Jersey | Marist | 20-Oct | 21-Oct | 628 | 4.0 | 47 | 37 | D+10 |
| South Dakota | Research 2000 | 22-Oct | 24-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 57 | 35 | D+22 |
| Tennessee | Research 2000 | 21-Oct | 22-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 37 | 59 | R+22 |
The Iowa race is between Sen. Tom Harkin (D) and Christopher Reed (R).
Harkin leads by +16%.
The Minnesota slug-fest between Sen. Norm Coleman (R) and Al Franken (D) goes to Coleman by +9% in this old poll from an occasional pollster. Again…the poll is suspect.
The New Hampshire race is between Sen. John Sununu (R) and Jeanne Shaheen (D). Shaheen has the lead by +6%. She previously had a +9% in an ARG poll.
The New Jersey race is between Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) and Dick Zimmer (R). Lautenberg holds his lead with a +10%. The previous poll gave Lautenberg a +22%.
The South Dakota race is between Tim Johnson (D) and Joel Dykstra (R). Johnson will hold his seat with a strong +22%.
The Tennessee race between Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) and Bob Tuke (D) has Alexander with a solid +22%. And this is the worst of the last three polls. It doesn’t matter.
I’ll be posting a new simulation analysis later this evening.
Saturday, October 25th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
Polls should take account of whether someone has voted early already.