Friday, October 24, 2008 at 10:34 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: McCain Makes Small Gain
| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 372 electoral votes | Mean of 166 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 376 to 162 electoral votes. There were 21 new polls in 15 states released today. The polls were slightly favorable to McCain, so he gains a handful of electoral votes today.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 372 to McCain’s 166 electoral votes. Obama would still have a 100.0% probability of winning an election held now.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 24 Feb 2008 to 24 Oct 2008, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).
- 100000 simulations: Obama wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 372.2 (12.7)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 165.8 (12.7)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 375 (343, 393)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 163 (145, 195)
This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 222 | |||
| Strong Obama | 110 | 332 | ||
| Leans Obama | 43 | 43 | 375 | |
| Weak Obama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 375 |
| Weak McCain | 6 | 6 | 6 | 163 |
| Leans McCain | 0 | 0 | 157 | |
| Strong McCain | 111 | 157 | ||
| Safe McCain | 46 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | McCain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | ‘04 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | McCain | % wins | % wins |
| Alabama | 9 | 1 | 533 | 38.6 | 61.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Alaska | 3 | 2 | 1045 | 41.9 | 58.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Arizona | 10 | 1* | 485 | 39.2 | 60.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1* | 1464 | 41.4 | 58.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| California | 55 | 2 | 1633 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Colorado | 9 | 3 | 2208 | 52.9 | 47.1 | 97.2 | 2.8 | |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1 | 475 | 58.9 | 41.1 | 99.7 | 0.3 | |
| Delaware | 3 | 1* | 485 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 99.3 | 0.7 | |
| D.C. | 3 | 1* | 570 | 86.3 | 13.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Florida | 27 | 10 | 8027 | 50.8 | 49.2 | 86.0 | 14.0 | |
| Georgia | 15 | 5 | 2929 | 48.0 | 52.0 | 6.5 | 93.5 | |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 475 | 71.6 | 28.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 475 | 34.7 | 65.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Illinois | 21 | 2 | 971 | 64.9 | 35.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Indiana | 11 | 3 | 2432 | 52.2 | 47.8 | 94.1 | 5.9 | |
| Iowa | 7 | 2 | 1016 | 55.8 | 44.2 | 99.5 | 0.5 | |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 576 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 1.5 | 98.5 | |
| Kentucky | 8 | 4 | 2104 | 43.1 | 56.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1 | 490 | 41.8 | 58.2 | 0.7 | 99.3 | |
| Maine | 4 | 4 | 1906 | 58.6 | 41.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 485 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 1 | 348 | 60.9 | 39.1 | 99.8 | 0.2 | |
| Michigan | 17 | 2 | 880 | 60.3 | 39.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Minnesota | 10 | 6 | 3539 | 56.5 | 43.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1 | 540 | 44.4 | 55.6 | 3.3 | 96.7 | |
| Missouri | 11 | 3 | 2150 | 52.0 | 48.0 | 90.0 | 10.0 | |
| Montana | 3 | 2 | 808 | 49.8 | 50.2 | 45.5 | 54.5 | |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1* | 465 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| Nevada | 5 | 3 | 1992 | 51.8 | 48.2 | 85.6 | 14.4 | |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 2 | 1230 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 92.8 | 7.2 | |
| New Jersey | 15 | 2 | 1798 | 61.0 | 39.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| New Mexico | 5 | 1* | 679 | 56.7 | 43.3 | 99.3 | 0.7 | |
| New York | 31 | 2 | 966 | 65.0 | 35.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| North Carolina | 15 | 9 | 6283 | 51.4 | 48.6 | 93.8 | 6.2 | |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1 | 540 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 49.0 | 51.0 | |
| Ohio | 20 | 9 | 6633 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 99.7 | 0.3 | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 2 | 1260 | 35.2 | 64.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Oregon | 7 | 3 | 1431 | 57.9 | 42.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 7 | 5105 | 55.4 | 44.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 564 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 99.9 | 0.2 | |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1 | 485 | 44.3 | 55.7 | 3.7 | 96.3 | |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1 | 712 | 46.1 | 53.9 | 6.8 | 93.2 | |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1 | 480 | 43.8 | 56.3 | 2.5 | 97.5 | |
| Texas | 34 | 2 | 1042 | 44.1 | 55.9 | 0.5 | 99.5 | |
| Utah | 5 | 1* | 564 | 30.9 | 69.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Vermont | 3 | 1* | 480 | 62.5 | 37.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Virginia | 13 | 4 | 2521 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 99.6 | 0.4 | |
| Washington | 11 | 2 | 854 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| West Virginia | 5 | 6 | 3859 | 46.4 | 53.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 5 | 2647 | 56.0 | 44.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Wyoming | 3 | 2 | 1038 | 38.3 | 61.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
