Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 11:01 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Small Gains for Obama
| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 370 electoral votes | Mean of 168 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by an average of 368 to 170 electoral votes. Today there were 18 new polls representing 12 states released that weigh in on the score. The net result is a small gain for Obama.
A Monte Carlo analysis consisting of 100,000 simulated elections finds that Obama wins every one. Obama receives (on average) 370 to McCain’s 168 electoral votes—a gain of two. If an election had been held today, Obama would have had a near 100% probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 22 Feb 2008 to 22 Oct 2008, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).
- 100000 simulations: Obama wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 369.8 (13.2)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 168.2 (13.2)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 373 (340, 393)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 165 (145, 198)
This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 200 | |||
| Strong Obama | 124 | 324 | ||
| Leans Obama | 54 | 54 | 378 | |
| Weak Obama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 378 |
| Weak McCain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 |
| Leans McCain | 3 | 3 | 160 | |
| Strong McCain | 108 | 157 | ||
| Safe McCain | 49 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | McCain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | ‘04 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | McCain | % wins | % wins |
| Alabama | 9 | 1* | 676 | 36.1 | 63.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Alaska | 3 | 2 | 1045 | 41.9 | 58.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Arizona | 10 | 1* | 485 | 39.2 | 60.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1* | 465 | 45.2 | 54.8 | 7.4 | 92.6 | |
| California | 55 | 1 | 578 | 62.8 | 37.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Colorado | 9 | 4 | 2955 | 52.7 | 47.3 | 97.7 | 2.3 | |
| Connecticut | 7 | 2 | 1053 | 60.3 | 39.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Delaware | 3 | 1* | 485 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 99.1 | 0.9 | |
| D.C. | 3 | 1* | 570 | 86.3 | 13.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Florida | 27 | 10 | 7821 | 51.4 | 48.6 | 95.7 | 4.3 | |
| Georgia | 15 | 3 | 1796 | 47.0 | 53.0 | 4.2 | 95.8 | |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 475 | 71.6 | 28.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 475 | 34.7 | 65.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Illinois | 21 | 1 | 440 | 63.6 | 36.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Indiana | 11 | 1 | 1326 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 71.1 | 28.9 | |
| Iowa | 7 | 1* | 658 | 56.8 | 43.2 | 99.2 | 0.8 | |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 475 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 2.0 | 98.0 | |
| Kentucky | 8 | 3 | 1540 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1* | 475 | 42.1 | 57.9 | 0.8 | 99.2 | |
| Maine | 4 | 3 | 1503 | 57.8 | 42.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 485 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 2 | 1066 | 63.6 | 36.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Michigan | 17 | 1* | 959 | 58.7 | 41.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Minnesota | 10 | 3 | 2137 | 55.5 | 44.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1 | 540 | 44.4 | 55.6 | 3.6 | 96.4 | |
| Missouri | 11 | 5 | 3860 | 51.4 | 48.6 | 88.9 | 11.1 | |
| Montana | 3 | 1 | 470 | 47.9 | 52.1 | 25.5 | 74.5 | |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1* | 465 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| Nevada | 5 | 4 | 2473 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 88.9 | 11.1 | |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 1 | 558 | 53.8 | 46.2 | 89.8 | 10.2 | |
| New Jersey | 15 | 2 | 1798 | 61.0 | 39.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| New Mexico | 5 | 2 | 1230 | 55.3 | 44.7 | 99.6 | 0.4 | |
| New York | 31 | 1 | 470 | 60.6 | 39.4 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| North Carolina | 15 | 10 | 7003 | 51.4 | 48.6 | 95.4 | 4.6 | |
| North Dakota | 3 | 2 | 969 | 50.8 | 49.2 | 62.9 | 37.1 | |
| Ohio | 20 | 7 | 4890 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 85.8 | 14.2 | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 2 | 1260 | 35.2 | 64.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Oregon | 7 | 2 | 1021 | 57.6 | 42.4 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 4 | 2205 | 56.6 | 43.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 564 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| South Carolina | 8 | 2 | 1024 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 0.2 | 99.8 | |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1 | 712 | 46.1 | 53.9 | 7.4 | 92.6 | |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1 | 480 | 43.8 | 56.3 | 2.3 | 97.7 | |
| Texas | 34 | 1 | 552 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 1.6 | 98.4 | |
| Utah | 5 | 1* | 564 | 30.9 | 69.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Vermont | 3 | 1* | 480 | 62.5 | 37.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Virginia | 13 | 7 | 4623 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Washington | 11 | 2 | 892 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| West Virginia | 5 | 7 | 4360 | 46.7 | 53.3 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 4 | 2080 | 55.9 | 44.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Wyoming | 3 | 2 | 1038 | 38.3 | 61.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
