Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 10:14 pm by Darryl
Wednesday Polls
There were 18 new polls representing 12 states in the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain today. Many of the polls seem to be closing-up, but it is happening in both red and blue states.
There were six Senate race polls in four states, and a pair of gubernatorial polls from North Carolina today, as well.
Presidential Polls:
| Start | End | Sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Poll | date | date | size | MOE | Obama | McCain | Diff |
| Alaska | Ivan Moore | 17-Oct | 19-Oct | 500 | 4.4 | 42 | 53 | M+11 |
| Florida | Mason-Dixon | 20-Oct | 21-Oct | 625 | 4.0 | 45 | 46 | M+1 |
| Kentucky | Rasmussen | 21-Oct | 21-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 44 | 52 | M+8 |
| Maine | SurveyUSA | 19-Oct | 20-Oct | 642 | 3.9 | 54 | 39 | O+15 |
| Maine | Omnibus Poll | 13-Oct | 16-Oct | 400 | 4.9 | 51 | 39 | O+12 |
| Nevada | CNN | 19-Oct | 21-Oct | 700 | 3.5 | 51 | 46 | O+5 |
| North Carolina | CNN | 19-Oct | 21-Oct | 644 | 4.0 | 51 | 47 | O+4 |
| North Carolina | WSOC-TV | 20-Oct | 21-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 48.4 | 46.4 | O+2.0 |
| Ohio | CNN | 19-Oct | 21-Oct | 635 | 3.5 | 50 | 46 | O+4 |
| South Dakota | Mason-Dixon | 13-Oct | 15-Oct | 800 | 3.5 | 41 | 48 | M+7 |
| Tennessee | Rasmussen | 16-Oct | 16-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 42 | 54 | M+12 |
| Virginia | Mason-Dixon | 20-Oct | 21-Oct | 625 | 4.0 | 47 | 45 | O+2 |
| Virginia | CNN | 19-Oct | 21-Oct | 647 | 4.0 | 54 | 44 | O+10 |
| West Virginia | CNN | 19-Oct | 21-Oct | 674 | 4.0 | 44 | 53 | M+9 |
| West Virginia | Wesleyan | 20-Oct | 21-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 43.5 | 49.2 | M+5.7 |
| West Virginia | Rainmaker | 15-Oct | 16-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 41.3 | 41.7 | M+0.3 |
| Wisconsin | Research 2000 | 21-Oct | 21-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 52 | 41 | O+11 |
| Wisconsin | St. Norbert College | 09-Oct | 17-Oct | 400 | 5.0 | 51 | 38 | O+13 |
The race in Alaska is tightening up, with McCain leading by only +11% over Obama. The previous poll, by Research 2000, had McCain up by +19%.
In Florida, McCain takes the lead today with a meager +1% lead over Obama. This makes two leads in a row for McCain, and he has led in three out of the last four polls.
In Kentucky, McCain’s lead over Obama narrows to +8%. This is the first time since July that McCain has had only a singe-digit lead. Still, McCain gets over 50%, so the tightening-up may be irrelevant.
A pair of polls in Maine today give Obama a pair of double-digit leads.
Nevada gives Obama a modest +5% lead over McCain. The previous poll, by InsiderAdvantage, had the race tied at 47%. One must go back eleven polls to find a McCain lead in the state:
A pair of polls from North Carolina today give Obama small leads over McCain. One lead is +4% the other is +2%. It has been 14 polls since McCain has held a lead:
Today Ohio offers Obama a +4% edge over McCain. The lead has traded off for awhile, but Obama’s leads are slightly larger. Obama still holds an edge in Ohio:
We now have the only October poll from South Dakota, and it shows a surprisingly close +7% advantage for McCain. If it gets any closer, McCain will have another state to worry about.
Tennessee has McCain up by +12% over Obama. Even this is a narrower lead for McCain.
Two Virginia polls were released today, and Obama takes them both, by +2% in one poll and +10% in the other. Obama has now led in Virginia for eleven consecutive polls:
There is an interesting picture emerging from three polls in West Virginia today. McCain receives a +9%, +5.7%, and +0.3%. But that last poll is pretty old—there are five newer polls. It looks like McCain has managed to check Obama’s gains and retake the lead:
A pair of polls in Wisconsin give Obama a pair of double-digit leads. Wisconsin looks solid for Obama right now.
Senate Polls:
| Start | End | Sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Poll | date | date | size | MOE | Democrat | Republican | Diff |
| Alaska | Ivan Moore | 17-Oct | 19-Oct | 500 | 4.4 | 46 | 45 | D+1 |
| Kentucky | Rasmussen | 21-Oct | 21-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 43 | 50 | R+7 |
| Kentucky | Research 2000 | 19-Oct | 21-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 43 | 47 | R+4 |
| Maine | SurveyUSA | 19-Oct | 20-Oct | 642 | 3.9 | 43 | 54 | R+11 |
| Maine | Omnibus Poll | 13-Oct | 16-Oct | 400 | 4.9 | 36 | 57 | R+21 |
| North Carolina | WSOC-TV | 20-Oct | 21-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 44.0 | 43.4 | D+0.6 |
The Alaska race between Sen. Ted Stevens (R) and Mark Begich (D) goes to Begich by +1%. In the mean time, Stevens’ trial has ended and the jury is deliberating. I doubt these polls matter much. If Stevens is convicted he will lose. If he is acquitted, he’ll win. But here is the recent polling anyway:
The Kentucky race between Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) and Bruce Lunsford (D) goes to McConnell in both of today’s polls, although by small leads. The pattern suggests that McConnell may be opening up a new lead….
A pair of polls from Maine today give Sen. Susan Collins (R) a pair of double-digit leads over Tom Allen (D).
North Carolina has Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) fighting off challenger Kay Hagan (D). Hagan takes the lead in today’s polls, but just barely. She gets a +0.6%. So, while Dole hasn’t retaken the lead, the trend looks favorable to her…but maybe that’s just noise:
Gubernatorial Polls:
| Start | End | Sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Poll | date | date | size | MOE | Democrat | Republican | Diff |
| North Carolina | WSOC-TV | 20-Oct | 21-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 44.2 | 43.8 | D+0.4 |
| North Carolina | Public Policy Polling | 18-Oct | 20-Oct | 1200 | 2.8 | 48 | 44 | D+4 |
A pair of North Carolina polls today weigh in on the race is between Bev Perdue (D) and Pat McCrory (R). Perdue gets a +0.4% in one poll and a +4% in another. A SurveyUSA poll that falls between today’s polls, gave McCrory a +3% lead over Perdue. Perdue has now led in five of the last six polls, but, man, does it look close:
