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Saturday, October 18, 2008 at 10:01 pm by Darryl

Poll Analysis: Again…Small Gain for Obama

Obama McCain
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 370 electoral votes Mean of 168 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Washington Oregon Idaho Montana Wyoming North Dakota South Dakota Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Illinios Indiana Colorado Utah New Mexico Texas Nebraska Oklahoma Kansas Nevada California Arizona Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Georgia Kentucky Ohio Michigan Pennsylvania West Virginia Virginia Hawaii Alaska North Carolina South Carolina Florida New York Vermont New Hampshire Maine Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland District of Columbia

Electoral College Map

Washington Oregon Idaho Montana Wyoming North Dakota South Dakota Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Illinios Indiana Colorado Utah New Mexico Texas Nebraska Oklahoma Kansas Nevada California Arizona Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Georgia Kentucky Ohio Michigan Pennsylvania West Virginia Virginia Hawaii Alaska North Carolina South Carolina Florida New York Vermont New Hampshire Maine Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland District of Columbia

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 369 to 169 electoral votes. An election held yesterday almost certainly would have gone to Obama.

There were new polls released in Florida, Maine, North Carolina and Wisconsin today. The net result is the gain of another electoral vote for Obama.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 of them. Obama receives (on average) 370 to McCain’s 168 electoral votes. The analytical results suggest that Obama would have a near 100.0% probability of winning an election held now.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 18 Feb 2008 to 18 Oct 2008, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).

  • 100000 simulations: Obama wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
  • Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 370.0 ( 9.0)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 168.0 ( 9.0)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 372 (349, 386)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 166 (152, 189)

This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Obama 182
Strong Obama 167 349
Leans Obama 23 23 372
Weak Obama 0 0 0 372
Weak McCain 0 0 0 166
Leans McCain 14 14 166
Strong McCain 87 152
Safe McCain 65

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

EC # Total % % Obama McCain
State ‘04 Votes polls Votes Obama McCain % wins % wins
Alabama 9 2 1175 37.3 62.7 0.0 100.0
Alaska 3 2 1045 41.0 59.0 0.0 100.0
Arizona 10 1* 485 39.2 60.8 0.1 99.9
Arkansas 6 1* 465 45.2 54.8 6.9 93.1
California 55 3 1687 59.9 40.1 100.0 0.0
Colorado 9 8 6623 53.9 46.1 100.0 0.0
Connecticut 7 2 1053 60.3 39.7 100.0 0.0
Delaware 3 2 888 58.3 41.7 100.0 0.0
D.C. 3 1* 570 86.3 13.7 100.0 0.0
Florida 27 12 9129 52.5 47.5 100.0 0.0
Georgia 15 6 3513 46.4 53.6 0.1 99.9
Hawaii 4 1* 475 71.6 28.4 100.0 0.0
Idaho 4 1* 475 34.7 65.3 0.0 100.0
Illinois 21 1* 475 58.9 41.1 99.6 0.4
Indiana 11 2 1092 47.8 52.2 15.3 84.7
Iowa 7 1 658 56.8 43.2 99.6 0.4
Kansas 6 1 475 43.2 56.8 2.1 97.9
Kentucky 8 1* 470 44.7 55.3 5.0 95.0
Louisiana 9 1* 475 42.1 57.9 0.6 99.4
Maine 4 1 546 58.2 41.8 99.5 0.5
Maryland 10 1* 485 61.9 38.1 100.0 0.0
Massachusetts 12 2 1066 63.6 36.4 100.0 0.0
Michigan 17 3 2471 59.1 40.9 100.0 0.0
Minnesota 10 5 3376 54.4 45.6 100.0 0.0
Mississippi 6 1 540 44.4 55.6 3.6 96.4
Missouri 11 7 5397 51.3 48.7 91.3 8.7
Montana 3 1 570 47.4 52.6 19.4 80.6
Nebraska 5 1* 465 39.8 60.2 0.1 99.9
Nevada 5 5 2728 52.1 47.9 94.7 5.3
New Hampshire 4 3 1937 55.2 44.8 99.9 0.1
New Jersey 15 2 983 56.3 43.7 99.7 0.3
New Mexico 5 2 1230 55.3 44.7 99.6 0.4
New York 31 2 990 64.1 35.9 100.0 0.0
North Carolina 15 10 7138 51.0 49.0 89.2 10.8
North Dakota 3 3 1503 50.9 49.1 68.9 31.1
Ohio 20 12 9428 51.4 48.6 97.2 2.8
Oklahoma 7 2 1529 32.2 67.8 0.0 100.0
Oregon 7 4 2267 57.3 42.7 100.0 0.0
Pennsylvania 21 8 5179 57.2 42.8 100.0 0.0
Rhode Island 4 1* 564 59.2 40.8 99.8 0.2
South Carolina 8 1 539 42.7 57.3 0.9 99.1
South Dakota 3 1* 564 41.5 58.5 0.1 99.9
Tennessee 11 1* 485 40.2 59.8 0.1 99.9
Texas 34 2 1122 41.7 58.3 0.0 100.0
Utah 5 1* 564 30.9 69.1 0.0 100.0
Vermont 3 1 480 62.5 37.5 100.0 0.0
Virginia 13 7 5123 53.5 46.5 100.0 0.0
Washington 11 1 523 58.3 41.7 99.7 0.3
West Virginia 5 2 1053 51.8 48.2 79.6 20.4
Wisconsin 10 7 4916 56.1 43.9 100.0 0.0
Wyoming 3 1 465 37.6 62.4 0.0 100.0

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

Posted in Poll analysis, politics

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2 Responses to “Poll Analysis: Again…Small Gain for Obama”

  1. Steve S. Says:

    Sunday, October 19th, 2008 at 1:59 am

    Looks like Bush can’t bank on a McCain victory; he’ll have to pardon himself to be safe.

  2. Darryl Says:

    Sunday, October 19th, 2008 at 8:44 am

    Yep…I can see it now. Bush will pardon Cheney et al. and then resign in the last week in office. A newly sworn-in Cheney will then pardon Bush.

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