Saturday, October 18, 2008 at 7:31 pm by Darryl
Saturday Polls
Not much in the way of polls today. We do have a North Carolina trifecta and a pair from Maine courtesy of DailyKos. There were an additional two polls in the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain.
Presidential Polls:
| Start | End | Sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Poll | date | date | size | MOE | Obama | McCain | Diff |
| Florida | Hamilton | 10-Oct | 15-Oct | 700 | 3.7 | 47 | 43 | O+4 |
| Maine | Research 2000 | 14-Oct | 15-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 53 | 38 | O+15 |
| North Carolina | Research 2000 | 14-Oct | 15-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 46 | 44 | O+2 |
| Wisconsin | UW-Milwaukee | 08-Oct | 15-Oct | 391 | 5.0 | 51.4 | 36.3 | O+15.1 |
In Florida, Obama leads McCain by +4% in this rather old poll. There are four newer polls that, collectively show the race currently tied:
Maine gives Obama a +15% lead over McCain. The previous poll, by Rasmussen and taken on 02-Oct, gave Obama a tighter +5% lead. Before that, a late-September SurveyUSA poll had Obama up by +5% too.
North Carolina still gives Obama a lead over McCain, this time by +2%, matching perfectly the recent PollPosition poll. Before that, a Rasmussen poll showed the race tied. It looks like Obama holds a slight advantage:
Wisconsin supports Obama over McCain by +15.1% in today’s poll. This is consistent with the previous poll, by Quinnipiac that had stronger +17% lead for Obama. The previous poll, taken in early October, had Obama leading by a narrower +10%. Obama has made slow, steady progress in Wisconsin.
Senate Polls:
| Start | End | Sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Poll | date | date | size | MOE | Democrat | Republican | Diff |
| Maine | Research 2000 | 14-Oct | 15-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 40 | 53 | R+13 |
| North Carolina | Research 2000 | 14-Oct | 15-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 49 | 45 | D+4 |
The Maine race is between Sen. Susan Collins (R) and Tom Allen (D), and Collins is up by a decent +13%.
North Carolina has Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) fighting for her political life against Kay Hagan (D). Hagan leads Elizabeth Dole by +4% today. Hagan was up by +2% in a recent Public Policy Polling poll, but just before that, a Rasmussen poll gave Hagan a +5% over Dole. What this all says is that Hagan has the upper hand:
Gubernatorial Polls:
| Start | End | Sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Poll | date | date | size | MOE | Democrat | Republican | Diff |
| North Carolina | Research 2000 | 14-Oct | 15-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 48 | 43 | D+5 |
The North Carolina gubernatorial race is between Bev Perdue (D) and Pat McCrory (R). Perdue is up by +5% over McCrory today. A recent Public Policy Polling poll gave Perdue a slender +1%, and before that a Civitas poll gave McCrory a +2%. It sure looks like Perdue has retaken the lead:
I’ll be back later tonight with some simulation analyses.
