Friday, October 17, 2008 at 8:42 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: A Small Gain for Obama
| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 369 electoral votes | Mean of 169 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 368 to 170 electoral votes. Obama would have almost certainly won an election yesterday. With the release of 14 new polls from 12 states today, Obama edges forward in his electoral vote total.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins them all. Obama takes, on average, 369 of the 538 electoral votes. McCain takes 169. With little doubt, Obama would win an election held today.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 17 Feb 2008 to 17 Oct 2008, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).
- 100000 simulations: Obama wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 368.8 ( 9.1)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 169.2 ( 9.1)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 369 (348, 386)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 169 (152, 190)
This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 199 | |||
| Strong Obama | 146 | 345 | ||
| Leans Obama | 27 | 27 | 372 | |
| Weak Obama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 372 |
| Weak McCain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 166 |
| Leans McCain | 14 | 14 | 166 | |
| Strong McCain | 111 | 152 | ||
| Safe McCain | 41 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | McCain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | ‘04 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | McCain | % wins | % wins |
| Alabama | 9 | 2 | 1175 | 37.3 | 62.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Alaska | 3 | 2 | 1045 | 41.0 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Arizona | 10 | 1* | 485 | 39.2 | 60.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1* | 465 | 45.2 | 54.8 | 7.4 | 92.6 | |
| California | 55 | 3 | 1687 | 59.9 | 40.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Colorado | 9 | 8 | 6623 | 53.9 | 46.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Connecticut | 7 | 2 | 1053 | 60.3 | 39.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Delaware | 3 | 2 | 888 | 58.3 | 41.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| D.C. | 3 | 1* | 570 | 86.3 | 13.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Florida | 27 | 11 | 8499 | 52.5 | 47.5 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| Georgia | 15 | 6 | 3513 | 46.4 | 53.6 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 475 | 71.6 | 28.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 475 | 34.7 | 65.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Illinois | 21 | 1* | 475 | 58.9 | 41.1 | 99.6 | 0.4 | |
| Indiana | 11 | 2 | 1092 | 47.8 | 52.2 | 14.6 | 85.4 | |
| Iowa | 7 | 1 | 658 | 56.8 | 43.2 | 99.4 | 0.6 | |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 475 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 2.1 | 97.9 | |
| Kentucky | 8 | 1* | 470 | 44.7 | 55.3 | 4.7 | 95.3 | |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1* | 475 | 42.1 | 57.9 | 0.6 | 99.4 | |
| Maine | 4 | 1* | 485 | 52.6 | 47.4 | 78.8 | 21.2 | |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 485 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 2 | 1066 | 63.6 | 36.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Michigan | 17 | 3 | 2471 | 59.1 | 40.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Minnesota | 10 | 5 | 3376 | 54.4 | 45.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1 | 540 | 44.4 | 55.6 | 3.5 | 96.5 | |
| Missouri | 11 | 7 | 5397 | 51.3 | 48.7 | 91.3 | 8.7 | |
| Montana | 3 | 1 | 570 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 18.1 | 81.9 | |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1* | 465 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| Nevada | 5 | 5 | 2728 | 52.1 | 47.9 | 93.9 | 6.1 | |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 3 | 1937 | 55.2 | 44.8 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| New Jersey | 15 | 2 | 983 | 56.3 | 43.7 | 99.7 | 0.3 | |
| New Mexico | 5 | 2 | 1230 | 55.3 | 44.7 | 99.4 | 0.6 | |
| New York | 31 | 2 | 990 | 64.1 | 35.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| North Carolina | 15 | 9 | 6598 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 88.3 | 11.7 | |
| North Dakota | 3 | 3 | 1503 | 50.9 | 49.1 | 68.8 | 31.2 | |
| Ohio | 20 | 12 | 9428 | 51.4 | 48.6 | 97.2 | 2.8 | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 2 | 1529 | 32.2 | 67.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Oregon | 7 | 4 | 2267 | 57.3 | 42.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 9 | 5701 | 57.1 | 42.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 564 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1 | 539 | 42.7 | 57.3 | 0.8 | 99.2 | |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1* | 564 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.3 | 99.7 | |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1* | 485 | 40.2 | 59.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| Texas | 34 | 2 | 1122 | 41.7 | 58.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Utah | 5 | 1* | 564 | 30.9 | 69.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Vermont | 3 | 1 | 480 | 62.5 | 37.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Virginia | 13 | 7 | 5123 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Washington | 11 | 1 | 523 | 58.3 | 41.7 | 99.7 | 0.3 | |
| West Virginia | 5 | 2 | 1053 | 51.8 | 48.2 | 80.2 | 19.8 | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 6 | 4573 | 55.9 | 44.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1 | 465 | 37.6 | 62.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
