Wednesday, October 15, 2008 at 11:36 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Small Gain for McCain
| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 369 electoral votes | Mean of 169 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 270 370 to 168 electoral votes (on average) in a hypothetical election held yesterday.
There were 17 new polls in 13 states released today. Obama slips by one…he is back to “only” a 100 vote surplus.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 369 to McCain’s 169 electoral votes. There is solid evidence to suggest that Obama would win an election held now with near certainty.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
The most likely outcome is an Obama win with 372 electoral votes. This occurs with about a 17% probability.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 15 Feb 2008 to 15 Oct 2008, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).
Obama is still on an overall upward trend.
- 100000 simulations: Obama wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 368.5 ( 9.8)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 169.5 ( 9.8)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 369 (347, 386)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 169 (152, 191)
This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 201 | |||
| Strong Obama | 133 | 334 | ||
| Leans Obama | 38 | 38 | 372 | |
| Weak Obama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 372 |
| Weak McCain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 166 |
| Leans McCain | 11 | 11 | 166 | |
| Strong McCain | 130 | 155 | ||
| Safe McCain | 25 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | McCain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | ‘04 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | McCain | % wins | % wins |
| Alabama | 9 | 2 | 1175 | 37.3 | 62.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Alaska | 3 | 1 | 475 | 42.1 | 57.9 | 0.8 | 99.2 | |
| Arizona | 10 | 1* | 485 | 39.2 | 60.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1* | 465 | 45.2 | 54.8 | 6.5 | 93.5 | |
| California | 55 | 2 | 1109 | 58.4 | 41.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Colorado | 9 | 7 | 5944 | 53.9 | 46.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1* | 631 | 58.6 | 41.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Delaware | 3 | 2 | 888 | 58.3 | 41.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| D.C. | 3 | 1* | 570 | 86.3 | 13.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Florida | 27 | 9 | 7404 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| Georgia | 15 | 5 | 2961 | 46.3 | 53.7 | 0.2 | 99.8 | |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 475 | 71.6 | 28.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 475 | 34.7 | 65.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Illinois | 21 | 1* | 475 | 58.9 | 41.1 | 99.6 | 0.4 | |
| Indiana | 11 | 3 | 1828 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 21.2 | 78.8 | |
| Iowa | 7 | 1 | 658 | 56.8 | 43.2 | 99.4 | 0.6 | |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 475 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 1.8 | 98.2 | |
| Kentucky | 8 | 1* | 470 | 44.7 | 55.3 | 5.3 | 94.7 | |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1* | 475 | 42.1 | 57.9 | 0.6 | 99.4 | |
| Maine | 4 | 1 | 485 | 52.6 | 47.4 | 79.1 | 20.9 | |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 485 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 2 | 1066 | 63.6 | 36.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Michigan | 17 | 3 | 2471 | 59.1 | 40.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Minnesota | 10 | 6 | 4373 | 55.6 | 44.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1* | 480 | 45.8 | 54.2 | 9.8 | 90.2 | |
| Missouri | 11 | 6 | 4711 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 84.1 | 15.9 | |
| Montana | 3 | 2 | 1050 | 46.7 | 53.3 | 6.3 | 93.7 | |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1* | 465 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| Nevada | 5 | 5 | 2553 | 51.9 | 48.1 | 91.5 | 8.5 | |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 4 | 2609 | 55.2 | 44.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| New Jersey | 15 | 3 | 1670 | 56.8 | 43.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| New Mexico | 5 | 3 | 1881 | 54.4 | 45.6 | 99.5 | 0.5 | |
| New York | 31 | 1 | 520 | 67.3 | 32.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| North Carolina | 15 | 9 | 6598 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 87.5 | 12.5 | |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1 | 534 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 64.3 | 35.7 | |
| Ohio | 20 | 11 | 8742 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 97.6 | 2.4 | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 2 | 1529 | 32.2 | 67.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Oregon | 7 | 2 | 1246 | 57.1 | 42.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 8 | 5166 | 56.9 | 43.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 564 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1 | 539 | 42.7 | 57.3 | 0.6 | 99.4 | |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1* | 564 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.2 | 99.8 | |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1* | 485 | 40.2 | 59.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| Texas | 34 | 1 | 570 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Utah | 5 | 1* | 564 | 30.9 | 69.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Vermont | 3 | 1 | 480 | 62.5 | 37.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Virginia | 13 | 6 | 4661 | 53.6 | 46.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Washington | 11 | 2 | 1195 | 56.6 | 43.4 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| West Virginia | 5 | 2 | 1053 | 51.8 | 48.2 | 78.0 | 22.0 | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 6 | 4573 | 55.9 | 44.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1* | 465 | 38.7 | 61.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
Thursday, October 16th, 2008 at 2:50 am
Hey, Darryl-
Think you’re a little overconfident in Missouri? You keep saying it’s McCain by one, then referring to old polls. Is this wishful thinking, or is something else going on? Your numbers are so much higher than mainstream media – are you dreaming, or are they sandbagging?
Thursday, October 16th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Hi Susan Olson,
“Think you’re a little overconfident in Missouri? You keep saying it’s McCain by one, then referring to old polls. Is this wishful thinking, or is something else going on?”
What I wrote was:
But, maybe this table of all October polling makes the point more effectively:
Notice that the most recent poll, that gave McCain a +1% was taken from 11-Oct to 14-Oct. The three “previous” polls were taken on 11-Oct to 12-Oct, or just on the 12-Oct. Hence, there is great overlap in the four most recent polls. And those three “older” polls give Obama a +2%, +3%, and +8%. So, when I squint at the most recent poll numbers, I still see an Obama advantage. I’m not sure how one can come away with any other interpretation.
“Your numbers are so much higher than mainstream media – are you dreaming, or are they sandbagging?”
I am completely unaware of what the MSM is saying—I don’t watch TV and rarely read newspaper analyses of polls beyond getting “the numbers” from polls primarily reported that way. But my hunch is that MSM reports are not including all of the recent (publicly released) polls, rather each focuses on the polls that they paid for to the exclusion of polls paid for by competitors.
Thursday, October 16th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
“Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 270 to 168 electoral votes …”
I think you have a typo there — yesterday’s analysis said it was _3_70 to 168.
Thursday, October 16th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Sharon Krossa,
You’re so right. Thanks!