Wednesday, October 15, 2008 at 8:00 pm by Darryl
Wednesday Polls
There were 17 new polls covering 13 states in the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain today. A handful of Senate polls and a couple of gubernatorial polls round out todays poll round-up.
Presidential Polls:
| Start | End | Sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Poll | date | date | size | MOE | Obama | McCain | Diff |
| Colorado | CNN/Time | 11-Oct | 14-Oct | 762 | 3.5 | 51 | 47 | O+4 |
| Florida | Datamar | 12-Oct | 13-Oct | 1328 | 2.7 | 47 | 42 | O+5 |
| Florida | PollPosition | 13-Oct | 13-Oct | 612 | 3.8 | 48 | 44 | O+4 |
| Florida | CNN/Time | 11-Oct | 14-Oct | 765 | 3.5 | 51 | 46 | O+5 |
| Georgia | CNN/Time | 11-Oct | 14-Oct | 718 | 3.8 | 45 | 53 | M+8 |
| Illinois | Rasmussen | 17-Sep | 17-Sep | 500 | 4.5 | 56 | 39 | O+17 |
| Kansas | Rasmussen | 13-Oct | 13-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 41 | 54 | M+13 |
| Massachusetts | Rasmussen | 13-Oct | 13-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 62 | 34 | O+28 |
| Massachusetts | SurveyUSA | 13-Oct | 14-Oct | 624 | 3.9 | 59 | 35 | O+24 |
| Missouri | CNN/Time | 11-Oct | 14-Oct | 763 | 3.5 | 48 | 49 | M+1 |
| Nevada | PollPosition | 13-Oct | 13-Oct | 506 | 4.0 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
| New Mexico | SurveyUSA | 12-Oct | 13-Oct | 568 | 4.1 | 52 | 45 | O+7 |
| New Mexico | Rasmussen | 13-Oct | 13-Oct | 700 | 4.0 | 55 | 42 | O+13 |
| North Carolina | PollPosition | 13-Oct | 13-Oct | 474 | 5.0 | 48 | 46 | O+2 |
| Virginia | CNN/Time | 11-Oct | 14-Oct | 698 | 3.5 | 53 | 43 | O+10 |
| Washington | SurveyUSA | 12-Oct | 13-Oct | 544 | 4.3 | 56 | 40 | O+16 |
| West Virginia | PollPosition | 13-Oct | 13-Oct | 522 | 4.0 | 47 | 49 | M+2 |
Colorado has Obama up by +4% over McCain today. A recent Quinnipiac poll pegs it at +9%. And before that, a Suffolk University poll also gives Obama a +4% lead. In fact, Obama has led in all but one of the eight October polls and the one exception was a tie.
Three Florida polls today, with very consistent results of +5%, +5% and +4%. Obama has led in every Florida poll this month—all nine of them.
In Georgia, McCain leads Obama by a +8% today, which is identical to a recent SurveyUSA poll. Together they throw cold water on the excitement among Obama supporters inspired by a recent PollPosition poll that had McCain up by +3%.
Imagine that…two Massachusetts polls on the same day. They give Obama a +28% and a +24%. With Massachusetts out of the way, maybe we can get some more Indiana, West Virginia, and North Dakota polls?
Missouri has McCain up by +1% over Obama today. The previous poll, by Rasmussen had Obama up by +3%. And a poll from Public Policy Polling before that put Obama up by +2%. When I squint at the graph, I see Obama at a small advantage:
Nevada puts Obama up by +3%. That makes seven leads in a row for Obama, dating back to late September:
New Mexico has Obama up by +7% in one poll and +13% in another. Obama has led in every poll over the last two months. New Mexico is shaping up to be a “safe Obama” state.
In North Carolina, Obama leads McCain by +2%. In October, Obama has led in seven polls, McCain in two, and there was one tie. I am almost convinced that Obama’s lead in North Carolina is real!
Virginia has Obama up by +10.0% over McCain, 53% to 43%. Obama now leads in the last six Virginia polls, three of them with double-digit leads.
In Washington, Obama has a solid +16% lead over McCain.
West Virginia gives McCain a slender +2% lead over Obama. The previous poll had Obama up by a remarkable +8% lead. McCain held a +8% lead in the Rasmussen poll before that. The state has certainly tightened up, but I give McCain a clear advantage:
Senate Polls:
| Start | End | Sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Poll | date | date | size | MOE | Democrat | Republican | Diff |
| Illinois | Rasmussen | 13-Oct | 13-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 62 | 31 | D+31 |
| Kansas | Rasmussen | 13-Oct | 13-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 36 | 55 | R+19 |
| Massachusetts | Rasmussen | 13-Oct | 13-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 63 | 31 | D+32 |
| New Mexico | SurveyUSA | 12-Oct | 13-Oct | 568 | 4.1 | 58 | 40 | D+18 |
| New Mexico | Rasmussen | 13-Oct | 13-Oct | 700 | 4.0 | 57 | 37 | D+20 |
The Illinois race is between Sen. Dick Durbin (D) and Steve Sauerberg (R). Durbin has a solid +31% lead over Sauerberg.
In Kansas Pat Roberts (R) and Jim Slattery (D) are going at it. Roberts holds a reasonable +19% “edge.”
The Massachusetts race has Sen. John Kerry (D) defending his seat against Jeff Beatty (R). Kerry holds a solid +32% lead.
The open New Mexico race has Steve Pearce (R) and Tom Udall (D) battling it out. Udall holds a +18% lead in one poll and a +20% lead in the other. It looks like we will have two Udalls in the Senate next year.
Gubernatorial Polls:
| Start | End | Sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Poll | date | date | size | MOE | Democrat | Republican | Diff |
| North Carolina | Public Policy Polling | 11-Oct | 12-Oct | 1196 | 2.8 | 45 | 44 | D+1 |
| Washington | SurveyUSA | 12-Oct | 13-Oct | 544 | 4.3 | 48 | 47 | D+1 |
The North Carolina race is between Bev Perdue (D) and Pat McCrory (R).
Today’s poll puts Perdue in the lead by a slight +1%. A recent poll from Civitas gave McCrory a +2% edge. And, before that, a WSOC-TV poll had Perdue leading by +0.6%. Then, a SurveyUSA poll put McCrory up by +1%. And so it goes.
The Washington race is between Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) and Dino Rossi (R). After a lousy September for Gregoire, she appears to be back in the lead by +1% today. An early-October An older Rasmussen poll had them tied at 48%. This rematch of the 2004 “closest gubernatorial election ever” looks…um, really, really close:
New simulation analyses will be posted a little later tonight. Stop on back.
