Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 11:53 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Small Gain for Obama
| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 370 electoral votes | Mean of 168 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 369 to 169 electoral votes, on average, in a hypothetical election held today. There were 16 new polls in 11 states released today. The polls lean Obama’s way, so that he gains a bit.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins every one. Obama receives (on average) 370 to McCain’s 168 electoral votes. Needless to say, Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning an election held now.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 14 Feb 2008 to 14 Oct 2008, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).
- 100000 simulations: Obama wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 369.5 ( 9.7)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 168.5 ( 9.7)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 370 (348, 387)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 168 (151, 190)
This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 189 | |||
| Strong Obama | 160 | 349 | ||
| Leans Obama | 23 | 23 | 372 | |
| Weak Obama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 372 |
| Weak McCain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 166 |
| Leans McCain | 11 | 11 | 166 | |
| Strong McCain | 127 | 155 | ||
| Safe McCain | 28 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | McCain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | ‘04 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | McCain | % wins | % wins |
| Alabama | 9 | 2 | 1175 | 37.3 | 62.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Alaska | 3 | 1 | 475 | 42.1 | 57.9 | 0.8 | 99.2 | |
| Arizona | 10 | 1* | 485 | 39.2 | 60.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1* | 465 | 45.2 | 54.8 | 7.6 | 92.4 | |
| California | 55 | 2 | 1109 | 58.4 | 41.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Colorado | 9 | 7 | 5747 | 53.8 | 46.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1* | 631 | 58.6 | 41.4 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| Delaware | 3 | 2 | 888 | 58.3 | 41.7 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| D.C. | 3 | 1* | 570 | 86.3 | 13.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Florida | 27 | 7 | 5332 | 52.7 | 47.3 | 99.8 | 0.2 | |
| Georgia | 15 | 6 | 3348 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 0.4 | 99.6 | |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 475 | 71.6 | 28.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 475 | 34.7 | 65.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Illinois | 21 | 1* | 480 | 58.3 | 41.7 | 99.5 | 0.5 | |
| Indiana | 11 | 3 | 1828 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 21.0 | 79.0 | |
| Iowa | 7 | 1 | 658 | 56.8 | 43.2 | 99.1 | 0.9 | |
| Kansas | 6 | 1* | 626 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 1.1 | 98.9 | |
| Kentucky | 8 | 1 | 470 | 44.7 | 55.3 | 5.9 | 94.1 | |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1* | 475 | 42.1 | 57.9 | 0.8 | 99.2 | |
| Maine | 4 | 1 | 485 | 52.6 | 47.4 | 79.2 | 20.8 | |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 485 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 1* | 480 | 60.4 | 39.6 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| Michigan | 17 | 4 | 3144 | 58.3 | 41.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Minnesota | 10 | 8 | 5360 | 54.7 | 45.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1 | 480 | 45.8 | 54.2 | 9.9 | 90.1 | |
| Missouri | 11 | 5 | 3971 | 51.3 | 48.7 | 87.8 | 12.2 | |
| Montana | 3 | 2 | 1050 | 46.7 | 53.3 | 6.5 | 93.5 | |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1 | 465 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.2 | 99.8 | |
| Nevada | 5 | 5 | 2487 | 51.8 | 48.2 | 89.0 | 11.0 | |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 4 | 2609 | 55.2 | 44.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| New Jersey | 15 | 3 | 1670 | 56.8 | 43.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| New Mexico | 5 | 2 | 1212 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 92.1 | 7.9 | |
| New York | 31 | 1 | 520 | 67.3 | 32.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| North Carolina | 15 | 10 | 7241 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 90.3 | 9.7 | |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1 | 534 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 65.8 | 34.2 | |
| Ohio | 20 | 12 | 9294 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 98.8 | 1.2 | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 2 | 1529 | 32.2 | 67.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Oregon | 7 | 2 | 1246 | 57.1 | 42.9 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 8 | 5166 | 56.9 | 43.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 564 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1 | 539 | 42.7 | 57.3 | 0.8 | 99.2 | |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1* | 564 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.2 | 99.8 | |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1* | 485 | 40.2 | 59.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| Texas | 34 | 1 | 570 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Utah | 5 | 1* | 564 | 30.9 | 69.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Vermont | 3 | 1 | 480 | 62.5 | 37.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Virginia | 13 | 6 | 4572 | 52.7 | 47.3 | 99.5 | 0.5 | |
| Washington | 11 | 1 | 672 | 55.2 | 44.8 | 97.1 | 2.9 | |
| West Virginia | 5 | 1 | 552 | 54.3 | 45.7 | 92.9 | 7.1 | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 6 | 4573 | 55.9 | 44.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1* | 465 | 38.7 | 61.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
