Hominid Views

There were 19 new polls in the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain, plus a handful of Senate race polls and one gubernatorial poll. Not a bad take for a Monday!

Presidential Polls:

Today’s Florida poll has McCain up by +5%. The two previous polls, from mid-month, were a Research 2000 poll giving McCain a +1%, and a Miami Herald poll that had McCain up by +2%. It looks like McCain still has a hold on Florida.

In Georgia, McCain leads Obama by a solid +18%. McCain’s lead has expanded slightly from the previous PollPosition poll that gave McCain a +7%, and Rasmussen poll that gave McCain a +11%.

In Michigan, Obama holds a +7% lead over McCain. Working backward, we see Obama leading by +2% (ARG), +9% (Marist), +1 (EPIC/MRA), and +4% (Big Ten). It’s looking good for Obama in Michigan.

McCain closed the gap in Minnesota over recent weeks, but a +8% Obama lead hints at a turn-around. Nevertheless, a slightly newer ARG poll only gives Obama a +1% lead. And just before today’s poll, a Big Ten poll had Obama up by +2.

So Obama’s lead must be considered slight, if consistent.

In Nevada, McCain leads by a slim +2%. The lead was +3% in the previous poll from ARG and the Rasmussen poll taken before that. Obama would sure like Nevada as a bit of insurance, but he has yet to turn the state.

Has New Hampshire gone red? Today McCain gets a 47% to 45% lead over Obama. That’s two polls in a row for McCain. A mid-month ARG poll gave McCain a +3% (48% to 45%) lead over Obama. Obama typically held small leads over McCain before that.

In New Jersey, Obama has a relatively secure +9% (51% to 42%) lead over McCain, but not as good as the previous Rasmussen poll that had a +13% lead for Obama. Just before that, however, Obama only came away with a +2% lead in a Strategic Vision poll .

New Mexico is a must-take state for Obama unless he can turn Ohio or Florida. So, today’s +9% lead must bring joy to the campaign. The finding is similar to the +8% in the previous poll by SurveyUSA , the +7% found before that in an ARG poll, and the
+7% found in a National Journal poll. Obama’s lead looks real:

Two polls in North Carolina today. In one, McCain leads Obama by +3% and the other is all tied up at 45%. A concurrent poll (by Public Policy Polling) had the race tied, as well. McCain has led in the other September polls, but the recent polling suggests that Obama has nearly evened things out in the state:

McCain retakes the lead in Ohio after a recent Big Ten poll gave Obama a weak 46% to 45% lead and, just before that, a CNN/Time poll offered Obama a 45% to 44% lead. Before that, McCain dominated the polling.

A pair from Pennsylvania give Obama a +3% and a +2%, on the heels of a tied Big Ten poll and a tied Rasmussen Poll. Obama started out September with the lead, so these two new polls might reflect a recovery:

Rhode Island is, perhaps, a little tight with a +13% Obama lead. After all, he held a +19% and a +26 earlier in September.

South Dakota supports McCain over Obama by +16%, just like the +17% (from Rasmussen) earlier in the month.

Three Virginia polls today. Obama gets a +3% in one and an impressive +6% in aother; but, the newest of the three goes for McCain by +2. That said, it’s hard to argue that the evidence points to a McCain lead:

Wisconsin has Obama up by +5% over McCain. This is the 16th lead in a row for Obama, going back to May. Still, some folks think Wisconsin is in play.

Senate Polls:

The Minnesota race is between Sen. Norm Coleman (R) and Al Franken (D). Coleman holds the flimsiest +1% lead over Franken. A Star-Tribune poll taken around 12-Sep put Coleman up by +4%, and just before that, a poll from SurveyUSA had Coleman at +1%. It is fair to say that Coleman holds the advantage, but not by much:

The New Mexico race is between Steve Pearce (R) and Tom Udall (D). Udall leads Pearce by +20%, a lead that has expanded since a SurveyUSA poll gave Udall a +15% edge.

North Carolina has Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) defending her seat against Kay Hagan (D), and Hagan has taken back the lead by +6%, matching the +5% in a slightly newer poll from Public Policy Polling. Before that, the two were tied in a Elon University poll.

Oklahoma supports Sen. James Inhofe (R) over Andrew Rice (D) by 56% to 34%. Not much to say about this race.

Virginia gives Mark Warner (D) a lead over Jim Gilmore (R) by +30%. Recent polling is consistent with a solid lead for Warner.

Gubernatorial Poll:

In North Carolina, Bev Perdue (D) has taken a slim lead over Pat McCrory (R) after a terrible September.

As usual, I’ll post an analysis this evening.