Poll Analysis: McCain Takes the Lead

Obama McCain
47.4% probability of winning 52.6% probability of winning
Mean of 267 electoral votes Mean of 271 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Washington Oregon Idaho Montana Wyoming North Dakota South Dakota Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Illinios Indiana Colorado Utah New Mexico Texas Nebraska Oklahoma Kansas Nevada California Arizona Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Georgia Kentucky Ohio Michigan Pennsylvania West Virginia Virginia Hawaii Alaska North Carolina South Carolina Florida New York Vermont New Hampshire Maine Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland District of Columbia

Electoral College Map

Washington Oregon Idaho Montana Wyoming North Dakota South Dakota Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Illinios Indiana Colorado Utah New Mexico Texas Nebraska Oklahoma Kansas Nevada California Arizona Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Georgia Kentucky Ohio Michigan Pennsylvania West Virginia Virginia Hawaii Alaska North Carolina South Carolina Florida New York Vermont New Hampshire Maine Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland District of Columbia

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 269 to 269 electoral votes (which would almost certainly lead to an Obama victory in the House of Representatives). If an election had been held yesterday, we expected Obama to have a 52.7% probability of winning, and McCain a 47.3% probability of winning.

Today there were six new polls in five states released. And McCain edges ahead with a small lead over Obama.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 47,408 times (including the 2,565 ties), and McCain wins 52,592 times. Obama receives (on average) 267 to McCain’s 271 electoral votes. If the election was held now, Obama should have a 47.4% probability of winning and McCain, a 52.6% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 16 Jan 2008 to 16 Sep 2008, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

  • 100000 simulations: Obama wins 44.8%, McCain wins 52.6%.
  • Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 266.9 (21.7)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 271.1 (21.7)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 268 (221, 309)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 270 (229, 317)

This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Obama 18
Strong Obama 189 207
Leans Obama 61 61 268
Weak Obama 0 0 0 268
Weak McCain 0 0 0 270
Leans McCain 50 50 270
Strong McCain 137 220
Safe McCain 83

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

EC # Total % % Obama McCain
State ‘04 Votes polls Votes Obama McCain % wins % wins
Alabama 9 1 544 39.0 61.0 0.0 100.0
Alaska 3 3 1290 36.6 63.4 0.0 100.0
Arizona 10 1* 282 42.9 57.1 4.5 95.5
Arkansas 6 1* 455 42.9 57.1 1.7 98.3
California 55 1* 475 56.8 43.2 98.2 1.8
Colorado 9 4 2425 50.6 49.4 66.1 33.9
Connecticut 7 1* 465 57.0 43.0 98.2 1.8
Delaware 3 1 490 56.1 43.9 97.2 2.8
D.C. 3 0 (100) (0)
Florida 27 5 3296 47.2 52.8 1.1 98.9
Georgia 15 2 1203 41.9 58.1 0.0 100.0
Hawaii 4 1* 546 66.3 33.7 100.0 0.0
Idaho 4 1 485 29.9 70.1 0.0 100.0
Illinois 21 1* 475 57.9 42.1 99.3 0.7
Indiana 11 1 528 48.9 51.1 36.5 63.5
Iowa 7 2 1352 57.3 42.7 100.0 0.0
Kansas 6 1* 596 37.6 62.4 0.0 100.0
Kentucky 8 1* 585 40.2 59.8 0.0 100.0
Louisiana 9 1* 475 40.0 60.0 0.1 99.9
Maine 4 1 540 57.8 42.2 99.5 0.5
Maryland 10 1 750 57.7 42.3 99.9 0.1
Massachusetts 12 1* 460 58.7 41.3 99.7 0.3
Michigan 17 5 4081 50.9 49.1 79.8 20.2
Minnesota 10 3 2398 52.2 47.8 93.2 6.8
Mississippi 6 1 552 40.2 59.8 0.1 99.9
Missouri 11 2 1544 47.7 52.3 10.1 89.9
Montana 3 1 665 44.2 55.8 2.0 98.0
Nebraska 5 1* 455 39.6 60.4 0.1 99.9
Nevada 5 2 1136 48.9 51.1 29.0 71.0
New Hampshire 4 1 819 52.7 47.3 87.5 12.5
New Jersey 15 5 3491 53.0 47.0 99.4 0.6
New Mexico 5 1 672 49.0 51.0 35.5 64.5
New York 31 2 1030 54.7 45.3 98.6 1.4
North Carolina 15 5 2895 44.9 55.1 0.0 100.0
North Dakota 3 1 480 42.7 57.3 1.2 98.8
Ohio 20 10 7404 48.9 51.1 9.9 90.1
Oklahoma 7 2 1103 33.5 66.5 0.0 100.0
Oregon 7 2 836 53.9 46.1 94.8 5.2
Pennsylvania 21 4 2964 51.1 48.9 79.4 20.6
Rhode Island 4 1* 443 63.0 37.0 100.0 0.0
South Carolina 8 1* 465 43.0 57.0 1.9 98.1
South Dakota 3 1 455 40.7 59.3 0.3 99.7
Tennessee 11 1* 475 36.8 63.2 0.0 100.0
Texas 34 1* 490 44.9 55.1 5.7 94.3
Utah 5 2 997 30.5 69.5 0.0 100.0
Vermont 3 1 360 61.1 38.9 99.9 0.1
Virginia 13 5 3198 49.2 50.8 25.5 74.5
Washington 11 3 1474 52.4 47.6 90.0 10.0
West Virginia 5 1 358 46.9 53.1 19.9 80.1
Wisconsin 10 1 704 51.1 48.9 66.3 33.7
Wyoming 3 1 485 40.2 59.8 0.1 99.9

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

  • Both comments and trackbacks are currently closed.
  • Trackback URI: http://hominidviews.com/wp-trackback.php?p=1887
  • Comments RSS 2.0

6 Responses to “Poll Analysis: McCain Takes the Lead”

  1. Benjamin Hanowell Says:

    $%$*!

  2. Bill Says:

    based on past electoral trends, I suggest Obama start thinking about his Senatorial Career. It’s likely it’s going to be his job for the next four years.

  3. Finn Says:

    As perhaps the only right winger who makes projections and links to your site (I’m a sucker for graphs…lots and lots of graphs)…
    I have it Obama 264- McCain 274- differing with you only on Colorado.

    That said, I think (and I hate to say this) this will be McCain’s peak- I think Obama will regain Colorado, and that alone gives him the election. Not so sure about Virginia and Ohio, but if hes leading at that point hes already locked up Colorado-NM-IA and the win anyway.

    Unless McCain finds a weekly world news photo of Obama with Satan and Cher, the current economic news is enough to wrench the momentum back into Obamas camp, and there it will remain…

    I’ll keep checking on your analyses for confirmation on this trend im picking up…

  4. Darryl Says:

    Finn,

    “That said, I think (and I hate to say this) this will be McCain’s peak- I think Obama will regain Colorado, and that alone gives him the election. Not so sure about Virginia and Ohio, but if hes leading at that point hes already locked up Colorado-NM-IA and the win anyway.”

    I suspect you are right, if only because the national (popular vote) polls have given the lead back to Obama over the last two days. There are other signs, too, like McCain’s and Palin’s falling (approval – disapproval) spread in two tracking polls.

    Colorado will still be a challenge for Obama–a new poll came out today that gives McCain +2%. But you are right in suspecting that McCain will have a difficult time keeping CO, VA, and OH. Plus, new polling sure makes WV look in play.

    Thanks for stopping by!

  5. DaddysDarlin Says:

    Obama doesnt stand a chance, the American people will not reward this man for cheating to get the nomination.
    He is losing now because the American people are starting to see him for what he really is–a Chicago thug, a man who will do and say anything ANYTHING to win.
    He should be prosecuted for violating the Logan Act, and by God someone better step up and do something about it!
    I will be dancing in the streets in November, because Obama will get exactly what he deserves, nothing.
    If I lived in Chicago, I would think about getting another senator to represent me and my community. It looks to me like he and Resko have done nothing for the community and lined their own pockets with money set aside for improvements in Chicago low income neighborhoods. Where is the money? Obama is a has been, he knows it. We’ll confirm it in November! Ba Bye Obama.

  6. Bill Says:

    I don’t know if anyone can say with any certainty how this election will play out. The Democrat internal pollsters are warning the Obama camp that they can expect a 2 to 4 point swing in favor of McCain due to the Bradley effect. That would been a 4-8 point spread swing and that’s huge! I don’t know how true this is on the state by state level but I think some movement will be seen.

AWSOM Powered