Friday, August 1, 2008 at 9:36 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Obama v. McCain
| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 333 electoral votes | Mean of 205 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 337 to 201 electoral votes, and a very high probability of winning (in an election held now).
With the introduction of new polls in North Carolina, Alaska, and Missouri today, Obama slips a couple of votes (on average).
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,980 times (he also gets the 11 ties), and McCain wins 9 times. Obama receives (on average) 333 to McCain’s 205 electoral votes. If the election were now, we would expect Obama to have an almost 100.0% probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 01 Dec 2007 to 01 Aug 2008, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
- 100000 simulations: Obama wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 333.2 (17.6)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 204.8 (17.6)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 336 (296, 363)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 202 (175, 242)
This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state: Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 155 | |||
| Strong Obama | 105 | 260 | ||
| Leans Obama | 92 | 92 | 352 | |
| Weak Obama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 352 |
| Weak McCain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 186 |
| Leans McCain | 6 | 6 | 186 | |
| Strong McCain | 151 | 180 | ||
| Safe McCain | 29 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | McCain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | ‘04 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | McCain | % wins | % wins |
| Alabama | 9 | 1* | 457 | 42.7 | 57.3 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| Alaska | 3 | 3 | 1467 | 46.1 | 53.9 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| Arizona | 10 | 1* | 445 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 1.7 | 98.3 | |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1 | 455 | 42.9 | 57.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| California | 55 | 3 | 2225 | 59.5 | 40.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Colorado | 9 | 4 | 3316 | 50.8 | 49.2 | 83.1 | 16.9 | |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1 | 552 | 62.0 | 38.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Delaware | 3 | 1* | 553 | 55.0 | 45.0 | 99.0 | 1.0 | |
| D.C. | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | ||||
| Florida | 27 | 4 | 2707 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 74.8 | 25.2 | |
| Georgia | 15 | 3 | 1355 | 47.2 | 52.8 | 1.8 | 98.2 | |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 546 | 66.3 | 33.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Idaho | 4 | 1 | 450 | 41.1 | 58.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Illinois | 21 | 1 | 435 | 57.5 | 42.5 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| Indiana | 11 | 1* | 596 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 60.3 | 39.7 | |
| Iowa | 7 | 1 | 430 | 55.8 | 44.2 | 99.2 | 0.8 | |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 420 | 38.1 | 61.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Kentucky | 8 | 2 | 997 | 44.4 | 55.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1 | 440 | 38.6 | 61.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Maine | 4 | 1 | 450 | 54.4 | 45.6 | 97.0 | 3.0 | |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 577 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 1* | 430 | 61.6 | 38.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Michigan | 17 | 4 | 3157 | 52.3 | 47.7 | 99.6 | 0.4 | |
| Minnesota | 10 | 3 | 1995 | 54.4 | 45.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Mississippi | 6 | 2 | 1038 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Missouri | 11 | 4 | 3188 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 7.9 | 92.1 | |
| Montana | 3 | 2 | 1113 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 77.2 | 22.8 | |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1 | 455 | 39.6 | 60.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Nevada | 5 | 1 | 460 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 68.1 | 31.9 | |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 3 | 1444 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 88.8 | 11.2 | |
| New Jersey | 15 | 3 | 1695 | 55.8 | 44.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| New Mexico | 5 | 1 | 644 | 53.3 | 46.7 | 95.0 | 5.0 | |
| New York | 31 | 1 | 545 | 57.4 | 42.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| North Carolina | 15 | 5 | 3030 | 48.0 | 52.0 | 1.3 | 98.7 | |
| North Dakota | 3 | 2 | 865 | 49.1 | 50.9 | 30.5 | 69.5 | |
| Ohio | 20 | 3 | 2507 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 88.0 | 12.0 | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 1* | 540 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Oregon | 7 | 1 | 415 | 55.4 | 44.6 | 98.6 | 1.4 | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 3 | 2938 | 54.1 | 45.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1 | 430 | 64.0 | 36.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| South Carolina | 8 | 2 | 920 | 44.7 | 55.3 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1 | 420 | 47.6 | 52.4 | 16.5 | 83.5 | |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1* | 435 | 41.4 | 58.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Texas | 34 | 1 | 455 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 1.6 | 98.4 | |
| Utah | 5 | 1* | 425 | 38.8 | 61.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| Vermont | 3 | 1* | 576 | 68.4 | 31.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Virginia | 13 | 2 | 1669 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 69.7 | 30.3 | |
| Washington | 11 | 4 | 2077 | 56.7 | 43.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| West Virginia | 5 | 1* | 410 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 2.4 | 97.6 | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 2 | 1419 | 56.2 | 43.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1* | 465 | 43.0 | 57.0 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
