Poll Analysis: McCain Swipes One Back From Obama

Obama McCain
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 318 electoral votes Mean of 220 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Washington Oregon Idaho Montana Wyoming North Dakota South Dakota Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Illinios Indiana Colorado Utah New Mexico Texas Nebraska Oklahoma Kansas Nevada California Arizona Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Georgia Kentucky Ohio Michigan Pennsylvania West Virginia Virginia Hawaii Alaska North Carolina South Carolina Florida New York Vermont New Hampshire Maine Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland District of Columbia

Electoral College Map

Washington Oregon Idaho Montana Wyoming North Dakota South Dakota Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Illinios Indiana Colorado Utah New Mexico Texas Nebraska Oklahoma Kansas Nevada California Arizona Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Georgia Kentucky Ohio Michigan Pennsylvania West Virginia Virginia Hawaii Alaska North Carolina South Carolina Florida New York Vermont New Hampshire Maine Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland District of Columbia

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 319 Electors (on average) to 219 Electors. If an election were held yesterday, Obama would have a near-100% probability of beating McCain.

There were only two new polls released today, and little has changed.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,985 times (plus we give him the 6 ties), and McCain wins 9 times. Obama now has 318 Electors to Mccain’s 220 (on average). If the general election were held today, we would still expect Obama to have a near-100% chance of winning.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Here is the long-term trends in this race, created from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 15 Nov 2007 to 15 Jul 2008, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

  • 100000 simulations: Obama wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
  • Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 318.3 ( 12.1)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 219.7 ( 12.1)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 319 (296, 345)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 219 (193, 242)

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

State EC Votes # polls Total Votes % Obama % McCain Obama %wins McCain %wins
Alabama 9 2 892 42.0 58.0 0.0 100.0
Alaska 3 1 430 47.7 52.3 16.8 83.2
Arizona 10 2 676 44.1 55.9 0.1 99.9
Arkansas 6 1 2553 42.3 57.7 0.0 100.0
California 55 2 913 61.0 39.0 100.0 0.0
Colorado 9 3 2622 52.3 47.7 99.1 0.9
Connecticut 7 2 2770 61.6 38.4 100.0 0.0
Delaware 3 1* 553 55.0 45.0 99.1 0.9
D.C. 3 0 (100) (0)
Florida 27 6 3741 48.5 51.5 3.7 96.3
Georgia 15 4 2327 46.6 53.4 0.0 99.9
Hawaii 4 1* 546 66.3 33.7 100.0 0.0
Idaho 4 1* 553 42.9 57.1 0.0 100.0
Illinois 21 1 435 57.5 42.5 99.9 0.1
Indiana 11 1 596 50.5 49.5 60.0 40.0
Iowa 7 1 430 55.8 44.2 99.2 0.8
Kansas 6 1* 420 44.0 56.0 0.7 99.3
Kentucky 8 2 1019 42.4 57.6 0.0 100.0
Louisiana 9 2 966 39.6 60.4 0.0 100.0
Maine 4 1 440 62.5 37.5 100.0 0.0
Maryland 10 1* 577 57.0 43.0 100.0 0.0
Massachusetts 12 2 995 59.0 41.0 100.0 0.0
Michigan 17 3 2198 54.0 46.0 100.0 0.0
Minnesota 10 2 1861 59.6 40.4 100.0 0.0
Mississippi 6 1 470 46.8 53.2 8.1 91.9
Missouri 11 4 2389 49.0 51.0 15.6 84.4
Montana 3 1 455 52.7 47.3 87.9 12.1
Nebraska 5 1 440 40.9 59.1 0.0 100.0
Nevada 5 1 435 48.3 51.7 23.4 76.6
New Hampshire 4 2 985 56.4 43.6 100.0 0.0
New Jersey 15 2 898 56.7 43.3 100.0 0.0
New Mexico 5 2 942 53.0 47.0 96.6 3.4
New York 31 3 1489 61.5 38.5 100.0 0.0
North Carolina 15 2 1544 47.5 52.5 2.6 97.4
North Dakota 3 1 430 50.0 50.0 49.9 50.1
Ohio 20 3 1632 52.6 47.4 98.3 1.7
Oklahoma 7 1* 540 42.2 57.8 0.0 100.0
Oregon 7 1 509 51.7 48.3 77.5 22.5
Pennsylvania 21 2 1610 53.4 46.6 99.7 0.3
Rhode Island 4 2 815 65.6 34.4 100.0 0.0
South Carolina 8 1 455 46.4 53.6 6.1 93.9
South Dakota 3 1 420 47.6 52.4 16.4 83.6
Tennessee 11 1 435 41.4 58.6 0.0 100.0
Texas 34 2 1247 46.2 53.8 0.4 99.6
Utah 5 2 773 36.5 63.5 0.0 100.0
Vermont 3 1* 576 68.4 31.6 100.0 0.0
Virginia 13 2 1427 51.1 48.9 79.6 20.4
Washington 11 4 2432 54.9 45.1 100.0 0.0
West Virginia 5 1* 410 45.1 54.9 2.5 97.5
Wisconsin 10 2 1843 56.9 43.1 100.0 0.0
Wyoming 3 1* 465 43.0 57.0 0.1 99.9

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

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One Response to “Poll Analysis: McCain Swipes One Back From Obama”

  1. Obama Girl Says:

    Obama Baby Let’s Go…Obama 4 President!!♥

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