Tuesday, July 15, 2008 at 7:54 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: McCain Swipes One Back From Obama
| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 318 electoral votes | Mean of 220 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 319 Electors (on average) to 219 Electors. If an election were held yesterday, Obama would have a near-100% probability of beating McCain.
There were only two new polls released today, and little has changed.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,985 times (plus we give him the 6 ties), and McCain wins 9 times. Obama now has 318 Electors to Mccain’s 220 (on average). If the general election were held today, we would still expect Obama to have a near-100% chance of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Here is the long-term trends in this race, created from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 15 Nov 2007 to 15 Jul 2008, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
- 100000 simulations: Obama wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 318.3 ( 12.1)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 219.7 ( 12.1)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 319 (296, 345)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 219 (193, 242)
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| State | EC Votes | # polls | Total Votes | % Obama | % McCain | Obama %wins | McCain %wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | 2 | 892 | 42.0 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Alaska | 3 | 1 | 430 | 47.7 | 52.3 | 16.8 | 83.2 |
| Arizona | 10 | 2 | 676 | 44.1 | 55.9 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1 | 2553 | 42.3 | 57.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| California | 55 | 2 | 913 | 61.0 | 39.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Colorado | 9 | 3 | 2622 | 52.3 | 47.7 | 99.1 | 0.9 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 2 | 2770 | 61.6 | 38.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Delaware | 3 | 1* | 553 | 55.0 | 45.0 | 99.1 | 0.9 |
| D.C. | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| Florida | 27 | 6 | 3741 | 48.5 | 51.5 | 3.7 | 96.3 |
| Georgia | 15 | 4 | 2327 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 0.0 | 99.9 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 546 | 66.3 | 33.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 553 | 42.9 | 57.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Illinois | 21 | 1 | 435 | 57.5 | 42.5 | 99.9 | 0.1 |
| Indiana | 11 | 1 | 596 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 60.0 | 40.0 |
| Iowa | 7 | 1 | 430 | 55.8 | 44.2 | 99.2 | 0.8 |
| Kansas | 6 | 1* | 420 | 44.0 | 56.0 | 0.7 | 99.3 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 2 | 1019 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 2 | 966 | 39.6 | 60.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Maine | 4 | 1 | 440 | 62.5 | 37.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 577 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 2 | 995 | 59.0 | 41.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Michigan | 17 | 3 | 2198 | 54.0 | 46.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 2 | 1861 | 59.6 | 40.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1 | 470 | 46.8 | 53.2 | 8.1 | 91.9 |
| Missouri | 11 | 4 | 2389 | 49.0 | 51.0 | 15.6 | 84.4 |
| Montana | 3 | 1 | 455 | 52.7 | 47.3 | 87.9 | 12.1 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1 | 440 | 40.9 | 59.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Nevada | 5 | 1 | 435 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 23.4 | 76.6 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 2 | 985 | 56.4 | 43.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| New Jersey | 15 | 2 | 898 | 56.7 | 43.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 2 | 942 | 53.0 | 47.0 | 96.6 | 3.4 |
| New York | 31 | 3 | 1489 | 61.5 | 38.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 2 | 1544 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 2.6 | 97.4 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1 | 430 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 49.9 | 50.1 |
| Ohio | 20 | 3 | 1632 | 52.6 | 47.4 | 98.3 | 1.7 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 1* | 540 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Oregon | 7 | 1 | 509 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 77.5 | 22.5 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 2 | 1610 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 99.7 | 0.3 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 2 | 815 | 65.6 | 34.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1 | 455 | 46.4 | 53.6 | 6.1 | 93.9 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1 | 420 | 47.6 | 52.4 | 16.4 | 83.6 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1 | 435 | 41.4 | 58.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Texas | 34 | 2 | 1247 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 0.4 | 99.6 |
| Utah | 5 | 2 | 773 | 36.5 | 63.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Vermont | 3 | 1* | 576 | 68.4 | 31.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Virginia | 13 | 2 | 1427 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 79.6 | 20.4 |
| Washington | 11 | 4 | 2432 | 54.9 | 45.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 1* | 410 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 2.5 | 97.5 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 2 | 1843 | 56.9 | 43.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1* | 465 | 43.0 | 57.0 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
Tuesday, November 4th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Obama Baby Let’s Go…Obama 4 President!!♥