Tuesday, June 3, 2008 at 9:49 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Obama Holding His Lead Over McCain
| Obama | McCain |
| 56.6% probability of winning | 41.4% probability of winning |
| Mean of 273 electoral votes | Mean of 265 electoral votes |
Yesterday, Sen. Barack Obama held a slim 273 to 265 (on average) electoral vote margin, with 57.1% chance of winning a hypothetical general election held yesterday.
There were some five new polls that weighted in on this match-up today. The result…almost no change.
Now, after 10,000 simulated general elections, Obama remains at an average lead of 273 to 265 electoral votes. Obama won 5,656 of the elections (plus he gets the 205 ties), and McCain won 4,139 of the elections. This suggests that Obama has a 58.6% (56.6% plus 2.0% for ties) probability of winning and McCain has a 41.4% probability of winning a hypothetical election held now.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
It is interesting to note that the single most likely outcome (with just over 8% probability) is a McCain win with 271 to Obama’s 267 votes. But, overall, Obama still has the higher expectation of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every 7 days using polls from 03 Oct 2007 to 03 Jun 2008, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
McCain is slowly losing the lead he has held since March.
- 10000 simulations: Obama wins 56.6%, McCain wins 41.4%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 273.2 ( 14.5)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 264.8 ( 14.5)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 273 (247, 302)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 265 (236, 291)
| State | EC Votes | # polls | Total Votes | % Obama | % McCain | Obama %wins | McCain %wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | 2 | 1006 | 36.2 | 63.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Alaska | 3 | 2 | 1001 | 45.7 | 54.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Arizona | 10 | 1 | 561 | 43.9 | 56.1 | 0.2 | 99.8 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1 | 480 | 40.6 | 59.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| California | 55 | 5 | 3386 | 57.5 | 42.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Colorado | 9 | 1 | 450 | 53.3 | 46.7 | 92.5 | 7.5 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1 | 455 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 77.5 | 22.5 |
| Delaware | 3 | 1* | 553 | 55.0 | 45.0 | 98.8 | 1.2 |
| D.C. | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| Florida | 27 | 2 | 1671 | 46.8 | 53.2 | 0.9 | 99.1 |
| Georgia | 15 | 3 | 1733 | 42.9 | 57.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 546 | 66.3 | 33.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 553 | 42.9 | 57.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Illinois | 21 | 1* | 546 | 65.9 | 34.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Indiana | 11 | 1* | 1215 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 66.8 | 33.2 |
| Iowa | 7 | 2 | 940 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 98.5 | 1.5 |
| Kansas | 6 | 2 | 973 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 3 | 1519 | 36.2 | 63.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1 | 455 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 2.0 | 98.0 |
| Maine | 4 | 1 | 445 | 57.3 | 42.7 | 99.7 | 0.3 |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 577 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 99.9 | 0.1 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 2 | 967 | 54.9 | 45.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Michigan | 17 | 4 | 1794 | 47.9 | 52.1 | 4.8 | 95.2 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 3 | 1983 | 55.2 | 44.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 2 | 1028 | 44.2 | 55.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Missouri | 11 | 3 | 2384 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 8.5 | 91.5 |
| Montana | 3 | 1 | 569 | 43.9 | 56.1 | 0.3 | 99.7 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 3 | 1501 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Nevada | 5 | 1 | 430 | 46.5 | 53.5 | 6.4 | 93.6 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 1 | 455 | 52.7 | 47.3 | 89.3 | 10.7 |
| New Jersey | 15 | 1* | 707 | 63.6 | 36.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 2 | 983 | 52.3 | 47.7 | 91.7 | 8.3 |
| New York | 31 | 3 | 1482 | 57.6 | 42.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 5 | 2803 | 46.8 | 53.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1* | 218 | 46.3 | 53.7 | 13.1 | 86.9 |
| Ohio | 20 | 3 | 2012 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.4 | 49.6 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 1* | 569 | 40.1 | 59.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Oregon | 7 | 2 | 983 | 56.4 | 43.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 4 | 3079 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 572 | 58.2 | 41.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1* | 554 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 20.3 | 79.7 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1* | 221 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.2 | 99.8 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1* | 450 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.2 | 99.9 |
| Texas | 34 | 2 | 1431 | 41.6 | 58.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Utah | 5 | 1 | 537 | 30.4 | 69.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Vermont | 3 | 1* | 576 | 68.4 | 31.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Virginia | 13 | 3 | 1725 | 48.6 | 51.4 | 9.8 | 90.2 |
| Washington | 11 | 4 | 1948 | 56.5 | 43.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 1* | 540 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 2 | 990 | 50.8 | 49.2 | 71.6 | 28.4 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1 | 465 | 43.0 | 57.0 | 0.3 | 99.8 |
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
Wednesday, June 4th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
You not doing further Clinton/McCain stats? Because no one else is polling her any more?
Wednesday, June 4th, 2008 at 11:05 pm
Blood,
Yesterday there were a bunch of SurveyUSA polls released that did not include Clinton-McCain match-ups. On Monday there were 3 polls that were Obama only, and one poll that included both Obama and Clinton.
So…I’ll do analyses for Clinton whenever I can get new polling data, by I am guessing that the pollsters will not be initiating any new Clinton polls. But there may be some unreleased existing polls.