Monday, May 26, 2008 at 8:59 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Clinton Beats McCain…Still
| Clinton | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 322 electoral votes | Mean of 216 electoral votes |
Yesterday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had 100% chance of beating Sen. John McCain in an election held now, with an expected 320 electoral votes. Today there was a new Kentucky poll released that weighs in on the race. Now, Clinton still wins against McCain and gains a couple electoral votes.
After 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins every one of ‘em. This suggests that, if a general election were held today, Clinton would win with 100.0% certainty. Another way of saying this is that Clinton’s electoral vote total is significantly above the “margin of error” that results from polling small samples in the state polls (small relative to each state’s total voters).
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] generated by the simulations:
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every 7 days using polls from 26 Sep 2007 to 26 May 2008, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
It would seem that Clinton has the initiative—her recent gains show no sign of slowing down.
- 10000 simulations: Clinton wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 321.8 ( 13.3)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 216.2 ( 13.3)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 322 (294, 347)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 216 (191, 244)
| State | EC Votes | # polls | Total Votes | % Clinton | % McCain | Clinton %wins | McCain %wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | 1* | 811 | 39.6 | 60.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Alaska | 3 | 2 | 997 | 40.3 | 59.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Arizona | 10 | 1 | 548 | 41.4 | 58.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1 | 460 | 57.6 | 42.4 | 99.9 | 0.2 |
| California | 55 | 3 | 1997 | 55.9 | 44.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Colorado | 9 | 1 | 455 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 22.4 | 77.6 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1* | 1477 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 91.5 | 8.5 |
| Delaware | 3 | 1* | 532 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 91.3 | 8.8 |
| D.C. | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| Florida | 27 | 3 | 2973 | 54.1 | 45.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Georgia | 15 | 1 | 425 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 0.7 | 99.3 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 487 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 87.0 | 13.0 |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 548 | 29.9 | 70.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Illinois | 21 | 1* | 512 | 56.4 | 43.6 | 99.7 | 0.4 |
| Indiana | 11 | 1 | 1190 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 86.4 | 13.6 |
| Iowa | 7 | 1 | 435 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 22.2 | 77.8 |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 460 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.2 | 99.8 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 2 | 1029 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 18.5 | 81.4 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1* | 470 | 38.3 | 61.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Maine | 4 | 1 | 445 | 57.3 | 42.7 | 99.7 | 0.3 |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 552 | 55.1 | 44.9 | 98.8 | 1.2 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 1* | 455 | 60.4 | 39.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Michigan | 17 | 1 | 440 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.1 | 49.9 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 2 | 1449 | 56.0 | 44.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1 | 546 | 39.6 | 60.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Missouri | 11 | 2 | 1872 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 72.4 | 27.6 |
| Montana | 3 | 1 | 569 | 43.9 | 56.1 | 0.3 | 99.7 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 2 | 971 | 34.8 | 65.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Nevada | 5 | 1 | 435 | 52.9 | 47.1 | 89.7 | 10.3 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 3 | 1330 | 50.8 | 49.2 | 74.8 | 25.2 |
| New Jersey | 15 | 1 | 723 | 57.8 | 42.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 1 | 440 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 92.8 | 7.2 |
| New York | 31 | 2 | 1015 | 60.8 | 39.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 4 | 2128 | 47.8 | 52.2 | 3.0 | 97.0 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1* | 511 | 39.3 | 60.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Ohio | 20 | 3 | 2541 | 54.6 | 45.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 1* | 552 | 45.7 | 54.3 | 2.2 | 97.8 |
| Oregon | 7 | 1 | 430 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 92.9 | 7.1 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 4 | 3904 | 57.2 | 42.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 571 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1* | 536 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 6.0 | 94.0 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1* | 440 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 0.4 | 99.6 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1* | 450 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Texas | 34 | 2 | 1006 | 44.0 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Utah | 5 | 1 | 514 | 23.5 | 76.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Vermont | 3 | 1* | 551 | 55.7 | 44.3 | 99.4 | 0.6 |
| Virginia | 13 | 2 | 1122 | 45.6 | 54.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Washington | 11 | 2 | 1065 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 93.6 | 6.3 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 1* | 549 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 91.6 | 8.4 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 1 | 450 | 47.8 | 52.2 | 15.8 | 84.2 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1* | 508 | 31.5 | 68.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
