Poll Analysis: Clinton Beats McCain…Still

Clinton McCain
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 322 electoral votes Mean of 216 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Washington Oregon Idaho Montana Wyoming North Dakota South Dakota Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Illinios Indiana Colorado Utah New Mexico Texas Nebraska Oklahoma Kansas Nevada California Arizona Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Georgia Kentucky Ohio Michigan Pennsylvania West Virginia Virginia Hawaii Alaska North Carolina South Carolina Florida New York Vermont New Hampshire Maine Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland District of Columbia

Electoral College Map

Washington Oregon Idaho Montana Wyoming North Dakota South Dakota Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Illinios Indiana Colorado Utah New Mexico Texas Nebraska Oklahoma Kansas Nevada California Arizona Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Georgia Kentucky Ohio Michigan Pennsylvania West Virginia Virginia Hawaii Alaska North Carolina South Carolina Florida New York Vermont New Hampshire Maine Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland District of Columbia

Yesterday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had 100% chance of beating Sen. John McCain in an election held now, with an expected 320 electoral votes. Today there was a new Kentucky poll released that weighs in on the race. Now, Clinton still wins against McCain and gains a couple electoral votes.

After 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins every one of ‘em. This suggests that, if a general election were held today, Clinton would win with 100.0% certainty. Another way of saying this is that Clinton’s electoral vote total is significantly above the “margin of error” that results from polling small samples in the state polls (small relative to each state’s total voters).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] generated by the simulations:

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every 7 days using polls from 26 Sep 2007 to 26 May 2008, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

It would seem that Clinton has the initiative—her recent gains show no sign of slowing down.

  • 10000 simulations: Clinton wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
  • Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 321.8 ( 13.3)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 216.2 ( 13.3)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 322 (294, 347)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 216 (191, 244)
State EC Votes # polls Total Votes % Clinton % McCain Clinton %wins McCain %wins
Alabama 9 1* 811 39.6 60.4 0.0 100.0
Alaska 3 2 997 40.3 59.7 0.0 100.0
Arizona 10 1 548 41.4 58.6 0.0 100.0
Arkansas 6 1 460 57.6 42.4 99.9 0.2
California 55 3 1997 55.9 44.1 100.0 0.0
Colorado 9 1 455 48.4 51.6 22.4 77.6
Connecticut 7 1* 1477 51.7 48.3 91.5 8.5
Delaware 3 1* 532 52.8 47.2 91.3 8.8
D.C. 3 0 (100) (0)
Florida 27 3 2973 54.1 45.9 100.0 0.0
Georgia 15 1 425 43.5 56.5 0.7 99.3
Hawaii 4 1* 487 52.4 47.6 87.0 13.0
Idaho 4 1* 548 29.9 70.1 0.0 100.0
Illinois 21 1* 512 56.4 43.6 99.7 0.4
Indiana 11 1 1190 51.6 48.4 86.4 13.6
Iowa 7 1 435 48.3 51.7 22.2 77.8
Kansas 6 1 460 42.4 57.6 0.2 99.8
Kentucky 8 2 1029 48.7 51.3 18.5 81.4
Louisiana 9 1* 470 38.3 61.7 0.0 100.0
Maine 4 1 445 57.3 42.7 99.7 0.3
Maryland 10 1* 552 55.1 44.9 98.8 1.2
Massachusetts 12 1* 455 60.4 39.6 100.0 0.0
Michigan 17 1 440 50.0 50.0 50.1 49.9
Minnesota 10 2 1449 56.0 44.0 100.0 0.0
Mississippi 6 1 546 39.6 60.4 0.0 100.0
Missouri 11 2 1872 50.5 49.5 72.4 27.6
Montana 3 1 569 43.9 56.1 0.3 99.7
Nebraska 5 2 971 34.8 65.2 0.0 100.0
Nevada 5 1 435 52.9 47.1 89.7 10.3
New Hampshire 4 3 1330 50.8 49.2 74.8 25.2
New Jersey 15 1 723 57.8 42.2 100.0 0.0
New Mexico 5 1 440 53.4 46.6 92.8 7.2
New York 31 2 1015 60.8 39.2 100.0 0.0
North Carolina 15 4 2128 47.8 52.2 3.0 97.0
North Dakota 3 1* 511 39.3 60.7 0.0 100.0
Ohio 20 3 2541 54.6 45.4 100.0 0.0
Oklahoma 7 1* 552 45.7 54.3 2.2 97.8
Oregon 7 1 430 53.5 46.5 92.9 7.1
Pennsylvania 21 4 3904 57.2 42.8 100.0 0.0
Rhode Island 4 1* 571 59.4 40.6 100.0 0.0
South Carolina 8 1* 536 46.6 53.4 6.0 94.0
South Dakota 3 1* 440 43.2 56.8 0.4 99.6
Tennessee 11 1* 450 42.2 57.8 0.1 99.9
Texas 34 2 1006 44.0 56.0 0.0 100.0
Utah 5 1 514 23.5 76.5 0.0 100.0
Vermont 3 1* 551 55.7 44.3 99.4 0.6
Virginia 13 2 1122 45.6 54.4 0.0 100.0
Washington 11 2 1065 52.4 47.6 93.6 6.3
West Virginia 5 1* 549 52.8 47.2 91.6 8.4
Wisconsin 10 1 450 47.8 52.2 15.8 84.2
Wyoming 3 1* 508 31.5 68.5 0.0 100.0

* denotes that an older poll was used

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

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