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Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 11:29 pm by Darryl

Poll Analysis: McCain Takes the Lead Back from Obama

Obama McCain
41.2% probability of winning 57.4% probability of winning
Mean of 265 electoral votes Mean of 273 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

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Electoral College Map

Washington Oregon Idaho Montana Wyoming North Dakota South Dakota Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Illinios Indiana Colorado Utah New Mexico Texas Nebraska Oklahoma Kansas Nevada California Arizona Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Georgia Kentucky Ohio Michigan Pennsylvania West Virginia Virginia Hawaii Alaska North Carolina South Carolina Florida New York Vermont New Hampshire Maine Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland District of Columbia

Yesterday, Sen. Barack Obama had a 58.1% probability of beating Sen. John McCain in a general election. With six new polls added to the mix today, McCain regains the lead.

Now, after 10,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 4,116 times (plus he gets the 141 ties), and McCain wins 5,743 times. This means Obama has a 42.6% (41.2% plus 1.4% for ties) probability of beating McCain in an election held now, and McCain has a 57.4% probability of beating Obama..

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every 7 days using polls from 21 Sep 2007 to 21 May 2008, and including polls from the preceding 1 month (FAQ).

Obama’s recent comeback has been (at least temporarily) stopped.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] for the current time period from the simulations:

  • 10000 simulations: Obama wins 41.2%, McCain wins 57.4%.
  • Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 265.1 ( 14.9)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 272.9 ( 14.9)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 264 (242, 294)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 274 (244, 296)
State EC Votes # polls Total Votes % Obama % McCain Obama %wins McCain %wins
Alabama 9 1* 812 39.5 60.5 0.0 100.0
Alaska 3 2 1001 45.7 54.3 0.0 100.0
Arizona 10 1 490 44.7 55.3 1.5 98.6
Arkansas 6 1 480 40.6 59.4 0.0 100.0
California 55 1 540 54.4 45.6 97.8 2.2
Colorado 9 1 450 53.3 46.7 92.4 7.6
Connecticut 7 1* 1476 59.8 40.2 100.0 0.0
Delaware 3 1* 553 55.0 45.0 98.6 1.4
D.C. 3 0 (100) (0)
Florida 27 2 1678 48.1 51.9 6.2 93.8
Georgia 15 3 1733 42.9 57.1 0.0 100.0
Hawaii 4 1* 546 66.3 33.7 100.0 0.0
Idaho 4 1* 553 42.9 57.1 0.0 100.0
Illinois 21 1* 546 65.9 34.1 100.0 0.0
Indiana 11 3 2229 50.1 49.9 55.8 44.2
Iowa 7 2 970 53.0 47.0 96.7 3.3
Kansas 6 1 445 38.2 61.8 0.0 100.0
Kentucky 8 1 546 36.3 63.7 0.0 100.0
Louisiana 9 1* 465 44.1 55.9 0.9 99.1
Maine 4 1 445 57.3 42.7 99.7 0.3
Maryland 10 1* 577 57.0 43.0 100.0 0.0
Massachusetts 12 1 450 56.7 43.3 99.6 0.4
Michigan 17 1 445 49.4 50.6 39.1 60.8
Minnesota 10 2 1444 55.9 44.1 100.0 0.0
Mississippi 6 1* 591 43.1 56.9 0.1 99.9
Missouri 11 2 1856 48.0 52.0 4.5 95.4
Montana 3 1* 455 47.3 52.7 11.2 88.8
Nebraska 5 1 445 43.8 56.2 0.7 99.3
Nevada 5 1 455 47.3 52.7 10.8 89.2
New Hampshire 4 2 874 47.6 52.4 8.4 91.6
New Jersey 15 1 707 63.6 36.4 100.0 0.0
New Mexico 5 2 983 52.3 47.7 92.2 7.8
New York 31 2 976 57.9 42.1 100.0 0.0
North Carolina 15 4 2243 46.2 53.8 0.0 100.0
North Dakota 3 1* 218 46.3 53.7 13.6 86.4
Ohio 20 2 1403 49.4 50.6 28.8 71.2
Oklahoma 7 1* 569 40.1 59.9 0.0 100.0
Oregon 7 1 455 57.1 42.9 99.8 0.3
Pennsylvania 21 4 2910 54.0 46.0 100.0 0.0
Rhode Island 4 1* 572 58.2 41.8 100.0 0.0
South Carolina 8 1* 554 48.4 51.6 19.4 80.6
South Dakota 3 1* 221 39.8 60.2 0.2 99.8
Tennessee 11 1* 450 42.2 57.8 0.1 99.9
Texas 34 2 1001 44.9 55.1 0.0 100.0
Utah 5 1 537 30.4 69.6 0.0 100.0
Vermont 3 1* 576 68.4 31.6 100.0 0.0
Virginia 13 2 1179 46.1 53.9 0.3 99.7
Washington 11 1 633 56.2 43.8 99.9 0.1
West Virginia 5 1* 540 39.8 60.2 0.0 100.0
Wisconsin 10 1 450 47.8 52.2 15.4 84.6
Wyoming 3 1* 508 39.4 60.6 0.0 100.0

* denotes that an older poll was used

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

Posted in Poll analysis, politics

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2 Responses to “Poll Analysis: McCain Takes the Lead Back from Obama”

  1. thehim Says:

    Thursday, May 22nd, 2008 at 12:06 pm

    Darryl,
    Did you see that SUSA released polling on Virginia that shows Obama with a 7-point lead now? With Edwards as his VP, he leads by double-digits…

    Virginia!

  2. Darryl Says:

    Thursday, May 22nd, 2008 at 10:47 pm

    Hi Lee,
    Yep…I saw it and posted on it. Just a little behind schedule with the poll listings this evening. The problem with the SurveyUSA poll is that there are two other recent polls that have the race going to McCain. One of the polls is substantially bigger.

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