Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 11:28 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Clinton Holds Her Lead Over McCain
| Clinton | McCain |
| 89.3% probability of winning | 10.6% probability of winning |
| Mean of 301 electoral votes | Mean of 237 electoral votes |
Yesterday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had a 89.8% probability of beating Sen. John McCain in a general election. With six new polls weighing in on matters today, almost nothing changes.
After 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 8,929 times (plus she gets the 11 ties), and McCain wins 1,060 times. This suggests that, in a general election held now, Clinton would have a 89.4% probability of winning and McCain would have a 10.6% probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every 7 days using polls from 21 Sep 2007 to 21 May 2008, and including polls from the preceding 1 month (FAQ).
Clearly…Clinton maintains the initiative in this match-up.
Here is, for the current time period, the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
- 10000 simulations: Clinton wins 89.3%, McCain wins 10.6%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 300.9 ( 23.6)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 237.1 ( 23.6)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 305 (236, 335)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 233 (203, 302)
| State | EC Votes | # polls | Total Votes | % Clinton | % McCain | Clinton %wins | McCain %wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | 1* | 811 | 39.6 | 60.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Alaska | 3 | 2 | 997 | 40.3 | 59.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Arizona | 10 | 1 | 519 | 41.0 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1 | 460 | 57.6 | 42.4 | 99.9 | 0.1 |
| California | 55 | 1* | 445 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 88.9 | 11.1 |
| Colorado | 9 | 1 | 455 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 23.3 | 76.7 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1* | 1477 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 91.6 | 8.4 |
| Delaware | 3 | 1* | 532 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 90.6 | 9.4 |
| D.C. | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| Florida | 27 | 2 | 1710 | 54.2 | 45.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Georgia | 15 | 1 | 425 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 0.8 | 99.2 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 487 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 86.6 | 13.4 |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 548 | 29.9 | 70.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Illinois | 21 | 1* | 512 | 56.4 | 43.6 | 99.6 | 0.4 |
| Indiana | 11 | 3 | 2208 | 49.4 | 50.6 | 23.0 | 77.0 |
| Iowa | 7 | 2 | 945 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 36.7 | 63.3 |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 460 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 1 | 564 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.2 | 99.8 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1* | 470 | 38.3 | 61.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Maine | 4 | 1 | 445 | 57.3 | 42.7 | 99.7 | 0.3 |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 552 | 55.1 | 44.9 | 98.8 | 1.2 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 1 | 455 | 60.4 | 39.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Michigan | 17 | 1 | 440 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 49.9 | 50.1 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 2 | 1439 | 54.3 | 45.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1* | 581 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 1.2 | 98.8 |
| Missouri | 11 | 2 | 1872 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 72.8 | 27.2 |
| Montana | 3 | 1* | 450 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1 | 455 | 37.4 | 62.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Nevada | 5 | 1 | 435 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 0.7 | 99.3 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 2 | 870 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 16.8 | 83.2 |
| New Jersey | 15 | 1 | 723 | 57.8 | 42.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 1 | 440 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 92.6 | 7.4 |
| New York | 31 | 2 | 1015 | 60.8 | 39.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 4 | 2128 | 47.8 | 52.2 | 3.4 | 96.6 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1* | 511 | 39.3 | 60.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Ohio | 20 | 2 | 1434 | 55.2 | 44.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 1* | 552 | 45.7 | 54.3 | 2.3 | 97.7 |
| Oregon | 7 | 1 | 430 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 92.7 | 7.3 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 3 | 2453 | 56.5 | 43.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 571 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1* | 536 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 6.0 | 94.0 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1* | 440 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 0.4 | 99.6 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1* | 450 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Texas | 34 | 2 | 1006 | 44.0 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Utah | 5 | 1 | 514 | 23.5 | 76.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Vermont | 3 | 1* | 551 | 55.7 | 44.3 | 99.3 | 0.7 |
| Virginia | 13 | 2 | 1122 | 45.6 | 54.4 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Washington | 11 | 1 | 620 | 52.1 | 47.9 | 86.2 | 13.8 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 1* | 549 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 91.5 | 8.5 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 1 | 450 | 47.8 | 52.2 | 16.3 | 83.7 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1* | 508 | 31.5 | 68.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
Thursday, May 22nd, 2008 at 4:39 pm
SUSA did a poll in virginia today. GREAT SITE!
Thursday, May 22nd, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Thanks Buff Orpington,
That poll will be included in the analyses this evening. See the poll post for more information on how it might affect the race.