Monday, May 12, 2008 at 8:23 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Obama Gains Slightly on McCain
| Obama | McCain |
| 22.0% probability of winning | 77.1% probability of winning |
| Mean of 255 electoral votes | Mean of 283 electoral votes |
Yesterday, a Monte Carlo analysis of state head-to-head polls gave Sen. Barack Obama a 19.7% chance of defeating Sen. John McCain in a general election (one held now, anyway). Today six new polls weighed in on the question.
After 10000 simulated elections, Obama wins 2,196 times (plus he gets the 99 ties), and McCain wins 7,705 times. Obama now has a 22.9% probability of winning a general election (held now) and McCain has a 77.1% probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every 7 days using polls from 12 September 2007 to 12 May 2008, and including polls from the preceding 1 month (FAQ).
Obama seems to have bottomed out in late April, and has been gaining steadily since.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations for the current time period:
- 10000 simulations: Obama wins 22.0%, McCain wins 77.1%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 254.9 ( 19.1)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 283.1 ( 19.1)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 254 (217, 295)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 284 (243, 321)
| State | EC Votes | # polls | Total Votes | % Obama | % McCain | Obama %wins | McCain %wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | 2 | 1331 | 37.1 | 62.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Alaska | 3 | 1* | 455 | 47.3 | 52.7 | 11.8 | 88.2 |
| Arizona | 10 | 2 | 960 | 42.1 | 57.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1* | 445 | 33.7 | 66.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| California | 55 | 2 | 933 | 53.8 | 46.2 | 99.5 | 0.5 |
| Colorado | 9 | 1 | 445 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 78.7 | 21.4 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1* | 1476 | 59.8 | 40.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Delaware | 3 | 1* | 553 | 55.0 | 45.0 | 98.9 | 1.1 |
| D.C. | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| Florida | 27 | 1 | 1228 | 49.4 | 50.6 | 31.9 | 68.1 |
| Georgia | 15 | 1 | 460 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 546 | 66.3 | 33.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 553 | 42.9 | 57.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Illinois | 21 | 1* | 546 | 65.9 | 34.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Indiana | 11 | 4 | 3421 | 48.8 | 51.2 | 6.6 | 93.4 |
| Iowa | 7 | 2 | 1043 | 54.2 | 45.8 | 99.9 | 0.1 |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 470 | 40.6 | 59.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 2 | 1041 | 34.0 | 66.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1* | 465 | 44.1 | 55.9 | 0.9 | 99.1 |
| Maine | 4 | 1* | 440 | 55.7 | 44.3 | 98.8 | 1.1 |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 577 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 99.9 | 0.2 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 2 | 963 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 99.0 | 1.0 |
| Michigan | 17 | 1 | 445 | 49.4 | 50.6 | 38.9 | 61.1 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 3 | 1387 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 99.5 | 0.5 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1* | 591 | 43.1 | 56.9 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Missouri | 11 | 2 | 939 | 46.1 | 53.9 | 0.5 | 99.5 |
| Montana | 3 | 1* | 455 | 47.3 | 52.7 | 11.7 | 88.3 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1* | 542 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 20.3 | 79.7 |
| Nevada | 5 | 1 | 455 | 47.3 | 52.7 | 10.8 | 89.2 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 2 | 874 | 47.6 | 52.4 | 8.1 | 91.9 |
| New Jersey | 15 | 1 | 707 | 63.6 | 36.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 1 | 461 | 46.9 | 53.1 | 7.7 | 92.3 |
| New York | 31 | 4 | 2516 | 55.9 | 44.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 3 | 1562 | 45.8 | 54.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1* | 218 | 46.3 | 53.7 | 12.3 | 87.7 |
| Ohio | 20 | 2 | 1443 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 23.3 | 76.7 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 1* | 569 | 40.1 | 59.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Oregon | 7 | 2 | 960 | 55.9 | 44.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 5 | 4494 | 49.7 | 50.3 | 33.7 | 66.3 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 572 | 58.2 | 41.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1* | 554 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 19.9 | 80.1 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1* | 221 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1* | 450 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.2 | 99.8 |
| Texas | 34 | 2 | 1001 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Utah | 5 | 1* | 541 | 43.8 | 56.2 | 0.5 | 99.5 |
| Vermont | 3 | 1* | 576 | 68.4 | 31.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Virginia | 13 | 2 | 950 | 47.1 | 52.9 | 3.8 | 96.3 |
| Washington | 11 | 1 | 590 | 56.9 | 43.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 1* | 540 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 3 | 1422 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 80.5 | 19.5 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1* | 508 | 39.4 | 60.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
Tuesday, May 13th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
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