Monday, May 12, 2008 at 8:22 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Clinton Slips Slightly Against McCain
| Clinton | McCain |
| 84.9% probability of winning | 12.5% probability of winning |
| Mean of 284 electoral votes | Mean of 254 electoral votes |
Yesterday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had a nearly 90% chance of defeating Sen. John McCain in a general election (one held yesterday). Today there were six new polls released that refine the analysis.
Today, after 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 8,493 times (plus takes the 258 ties), and McCain wins 1,249 times. That mean that if a general election were held right now, Clinton would have an 87.5% (that is, 84.9% plus 2.6% for the ties) probability of winning and McCain would have a 12.5% probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every 7 days using polls from 12 September 2007 to 12 May 2008, and including polls from the preceding 1 month (FAQ).
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations for the current time period:
- 10000 simulations: Clinton wins 84.9%, McCain wins 12.5%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 284.2 ( 13.5)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 253.8 ( 13.5)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 284 (258, 308)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 254 (230, 280)
| State | EC Votes | # polls | Total Votes | % Clinton | % McCain | Clinton %wins | McCain %wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | 2 | 1319 | 38.3 | 61.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Alaska | 3 | 1* | 445 | 36.0 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Arizona | 10 | 2 | 979 | 38.1 | 61.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1* | 465 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 5.3 | 94.7 |
| California | 55 | 2 | 913 | 55.0 | 45.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Colorado | 9 | 1 | 430 | 41.9 | 58.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1* | 1477 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 91.6 | 8.4 |
| Delaware | 3 | 1* | 532 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 91.4 | 8.6 |
| D.C. | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| Florida | 27 | 1 | 1270 | 54.4 | 45.6 | 99.9 | 0.0 |
| Georgia | 15 | 1 | 425 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 0.9 | 99.2 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 487 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 87.1 | 12.9 |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 548 | 29.9 | 70.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Illinois | 21 | 1* | 512 | 56.4 | 43.6 | 99.6 | 0.5 |
| Indiana | 11 | 4 | 3400 | 47.6 | 52.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Iowa | 7 | 2 | 1007 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 18.5 | 81.5 |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 480 | 38.8 | 61.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 2 | 1069 | 46.1 | 53.9 | 0.5 | 99.5 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1* | 470 | 38.3 | 61.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Maine | 4 | 1* | 445 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 89.6 | 10.4 |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 552 | 55.1 | 44.9 | 98.9 | 1.1 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 2 | 985 | 59.0 | 41.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Michigan | 17 | 1 | 440 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.1 | 49.9 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 3 | 1382 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 81.6 | 18.4 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1* | 581 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 1.4 | 98.6 |
| Missouri | 11 | 2 | 944 | 49.8 | 50.2 | 43.7 | 56.3 |
| Montana | 3 | 1* | 450 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1* | 542 | 34.5 | 65.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Nevada | 5 | 1 | 435 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 0.8 | 99.2 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 2 | 870 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 15.8 | 84.2 |
| New Jersey | 15 | 1 | 723 | 57.8 | 42.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 1 | 465 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 21.5 | 78.5 |
| New York | 31 | 4 | 2554 | 57.8 | 42.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 3 | 1472 | 45.4 | 54.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1* | 511 | 39.3 | 60.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Ohio | 20 | 2 | 1469 | 55.8 | 44.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 1* | 552 | 45.7 | 54.3 | 2.6 | 97.4 |
| Oregon | 7 | 2 | 935 | 51.9 | 48.1 | 87.4 | 12.6 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 5 | 4601 | 52.6 | 47.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 571 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1* | 536 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 5.8 | 94.2 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1* | 440 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 0.6 | 99.4 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1* | 450 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.2 | 99.8 |
| Texas | 34 | 2 | 1006 | 44.0 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Utah | 5 | 1* | 559 | 29.3 | 70.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Vermont | 3 | 1* | 551 | 55.7 | 44.3 | 99.4 | 0.6 |
| Virginia | 13 | 2 | 924 | 43.9 | 56.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Washington | 11 | 1 | 589 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 80.7 | 19.3 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 1* | 549 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 91.6 | 8.4 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 3 | 1407 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 8.4 | 91.6 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1* | 508 | 31.5 | 68.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
