Thursday, May 8, 2008 at 11:05 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Obama Loses a Bit More Ground to McCain
| Obama | McCain |
| 8.6% probability of winning | 89.9% probability of winning |
| Mean of 248 electoral votes | Mean of 290 electoral votes |
On Monday, Sen. Barack had a 10.6% chance of beating Sen. John McCain in a general election. Today, four new polls are added to the mix.
After 10,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 856 times (plus he takes the 152 ties), and McCain wins 8,992 times. If a general election were held now, Obama would have a 9.1% (8.6% plus 1.5% for ties) probability of winning and McCain would have a 89.9% probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
- 10000 simulations: Obama wins 8.6%, McCain wins 89.9%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 248.5 ( 15.2)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 289.5 ( 15.2)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 248 (220, 278)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 290 (260, 318)
| State | EC Votes | # polls | Total Votes | % Obama | % McCain | Obama %wins | McCain %wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | 2 | 1331 | 37.1 | 62.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Alaska | 3 | 1* | 455 | 47.3 | 52.7 | 11.3 | 88.7 |
| Arizona | 10 | 1 | 490 | 44.7 | 55.3 | 1.5 | 98.5 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1* | 445 | 33.7 | 66.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| California | 55 | 2 | 933 | 53.8 | 46.2 | 99.1 | 0.9 |
| Colorado | 9 | 1 | 445 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 78.0 | 22.0 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1* | 1476 | 59.8 | 40.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Delaware | 3 | 1* | 553 | 55.0 | 45.0 | 98.6 | 1.4 |
| D.C. | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| Florida | 27 | 2 | 1683 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 2.7 | 97.3 |
| Georgia | 15 | 1 | 460 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 546 | 66.3 | 33.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 553 | 42.9 | 57.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Illinois | 21 | 1* | 546 | 65.9 | 34.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Indiana | 11 | 4 | 3421 | 48.8 | 51.2 | 6.8 | 93.2 |
| Iowa | 7 | 2 | 1043 | 54.2 | 45.8 | 99.8 | 0.2 |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 470 | 40.6 | 59.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 1 | 495 | 31.5 | 68.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1 | 465 | 44.1 | 55.9 | 0.9 | 99.1 |
| Maine | 4 | 1* | 440 | 55.7 | 44.3 | 98.8 | 1.2 |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 577 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 99.9 | 0.1 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 2 | 963 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 98.9 | 1.1 |
| Michigan | 17 | 1* | 504 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 72.0 | 28.0 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 2 | 942 | 55.4 | 44.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1* | 591 | 43.1 | 56.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Missouri | 11 | 2 | 939 | 46.1 | 53.9 | 0.8 | 99.2 |
| Montana | 3 | 1* | 455 | 47.3 | 52.7 | 11.3 | 88.8 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1* | 542 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 20.8 | 79.2 |
| Nevada | 5 | 1 | 455 | 47.3 | 52.7 | 11.5 | 88.5 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 2 | 874 | 47.6 | 52.4 | 8.9 | 91.1 |
| New Jersey | 15 | 1 | 707 | 63.6 | 36.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 2 | 896 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 29.2 | 70.8 |
| New York | 31 | 4 | 2516 | 55.9 | 44.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 3 | 1712 | 46.3 | 53.7 | 0.2 | 99.8 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1* | 218 | 46.3 | 53.7 | 13.4 | 86.6 |
| Ohio | 20 | 3 | 1878 | 48.5 | 51.5 | 7.7 | 92.3 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 1* | 569 | 40.1 | 59.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Oregon | 7 | 1 | 505 | 54.9 | 45.1 | 98.0 | 2.0 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 5 | 4247 | 49.4 | 50.6 | 24.4 | 75.6 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 572 | 58.2 | 41.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1* | 554 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 20.7 | 79.3 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1* | 221 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.2 | 99.8 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1* | 450 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Texas | 34 | 2 | 1001 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Utah | 5 | 1* | 541 | 43.8 | 56.2 | 0.4 | 99.6 |
| Vermont | 3 | 1* | 576 | 68.4 | 31.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Virginia | 13 | 1 | 495 | 45.9 | 54.1 | 3.7 | 96.3 |
| Washington | 11 | 1 | 590 | 56.9 | 43.1 | 99.9 | 0.1 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 1* | 540 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 3 | 1422 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 79.5 | 20.5 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1* | 508 | 39.4 | 60.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
Saturday, May 10th, 2008 at 5:36 am
Is it possible for you to redraw the map so that it resembles the population maps at this site? http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/
I remember that these maps conveyed a real sense of the result better than the state by state maps.
Saturday, May 10th, 2008 at 10:52 am
riverdaughter,
Thanks for the suggestion. Yes…I’ve began working on adding a cartogram last weekend, but haven’t finished the work yet. The weather is supposed to be lousy here this weekend, so maybe it will get finished soon.