Thursday, May 8, 2008 at 11:04 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Clinton Slips Ever-so-slightly Against McCain
| Clinton | McCain |
| 74.7% probability of winning | 23.2% probability of winning |
| Mean of 276 electoral votes | Mean of 262 electoral votes |
On Monday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had an almost 78% chance of beating Sen. John McCain in a general election. Today, there are four new polls to add into the mix.
Now, after 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 7,470 times (plus takes the 213 ties), and McCain wins 2,317 times. Clinton now seems to have a 76.8% (74.7% plus 2.1% for ties) probability of winning a general election (held now) and McCain has a 23.2% probability of winning. Clinton slips ever-so-slightly.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
- 10000 simulations: Clinton wins 74.7%, McCain wins 23.2%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 276.0 ( 10.6)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 262.0 ( 10.6)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 277 (255, 295)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 261 (243, 283)
| State | EC Votes | # polls | Total Votes | % Clinton | % McCain | Clinton %wins | McCain %wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | 2 | 1319 | 38.3 | 61.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Alaska | 3 | 1* | 445 | 36.0 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Arizona | 10 | 1 | 519 | 41.0 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1* | 465 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 4.4 | 95.6 |
| California | 55 | 2 | 913 | 55.0 | 45.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Colorado | 9 | 1 | 430 | 41.9 | 58.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1* | 1477 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 91.7 | 8.3 |
| Delaware | 3 | 1* | 532 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 91.3 | 8.7 |
| D.C. | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| Florida | 27 | 2 | 1715 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 99.7 | 0.3 |
| Georgia | 15 | 1 | 425 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 0.8 | 99.2 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 487 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 87.2 | 12.8 |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 548 | 29.9 | 70.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Illinois | 21 | 1* | 512 | 56.4 | 43.6 | 99.6 | 0.4 |
| Indiana | 11 | 4 | 3400 | 47.6 | 52.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Iowa | 7 | 2 | 1007 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 18.4 | 81.6 |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 480 | 38.8 | 61.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 1 | 505 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 29.7 | 70.3 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1 | 470 | 38.3 | 61.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Maine | 4 | 1* | 445 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 89.6 | 10.4 |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 552 | 55.1 | 44.9 | 99.0 | 1.0 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 2 | 985 | 59.0 | 41.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Michigan | 17 | 1* | 498 | 44.6 | 55.4 | 1.2 | 98.8 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 2 | 942 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 84.0 | 16.0 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1* | 581 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 1.3 | 98.7 |
| Missouri | 11 | 2 | 944 | 49.8 | 50.2 | 43.8 | 56.2 |
| Montana | 3 | 1* | 450 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1* | 542 | 34.5 | 65.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Nevada | 5 | 1 | 435 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 0.8 | 99.3 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 2 | 870 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 16.3 | 83.7 |
| New Jersey | 15 | 1 | 723 | 57.8 | 42.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 2 | 910 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 15.3 | 84.7 |
| New York | 31 | 4 | 2554 | 57.8 | 42.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 3 | 1691 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1* | 511 | 39.3 | 60.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Ohio | 20 | 3 | 1914 | 53.8 | 46.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 1* | 552 | 45.7 | 54.3 | 2.3 | 97.7 |
| Oregon | 7 | 1 | 505 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 59.7 | 40.3 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 5 | 4333 | 52.3 | 47.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 571 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1* | 536 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 5.4 | 94.6 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1* | 440 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 0.5 | 99.5 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1* | 450 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.2 | 99.8 |
| Texas | 34 | 2 | 1006 | 44.0 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Utah | 5 | 1* | 559 | 29.3 | 70.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Vermont | 3 | 1* | 551 | 55.7 | 44.3 | 99.4 | 0.6 |
| Virginia | 13 | 1 | 484 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.0 | 99.9 |
| Washington | 11 | 1 | 589 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 80.0 | 20.0 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 1* | 549 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 91.8 | 8.2 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 3 | 1407 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 8.2 | 91.8 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1* | 508 | 31.5 | 68.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
Sunday, May 11th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
Do you think party leaders are paying attention? Will they sell us down the river or do the right thing and gove us a winner on the yop of the party ticket? I’m afraid they will sell us down the river!!!!!!!It’s more about making the black guy the nominee over the woman than winning the general election.
Monday, May 12th, 2008 at 11:03 am
Kendall,
I am wondering the same thing. I can’t be loyal to a party that isn’t loyal to the voters and doesn’t give us a candidate that can win.
Monday, May 12th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Denise,
The democratic party is in a power struggle. There are 2 camps. The Clinton camp and the Dean, Brazile, Pelosi, Kennedy, Kerry camp. The Dean camp deliberately disenfranchised Fl. and Mi because they knew that based on the demographics, Clinton would have won those big states and inevitably been the nominee. There is no doubt that Clinton is the stronger candidate for the general election, but they don’t want her heading the party so they are willing to throw the general election to ensure that she doesn’t win. They are convinved that if she loses they will dominate the dems.
The republican’s are working with them because they know that she is the only one who can beat McCain and they don’t want to lose power. The corporate media wants McCain so their corporate owners (general electric, Time warner, etc…) can continue making billions on defense contracts and nuclear power plants. So they have been brain washing the public into hating Hillary and Bill Clinton so the people won’t vote for her. On of the ways they have been doing this is by dividing the party be race and gender. The media are the ones who have been instigating the race bating and trying to make the Clinton’s look racist. Their sexist bashing of her was to chase white men away from her candidacy. These are some of the wedge issuesw used to deny Clinton the nomination. Its quite remarkable that Hillary has done as well as she has given all of these obsticles. Its a credit to the deep well of support that this country had for her as well as to her strength and determination. The unfortunate part is that the people won’t get a democratic president and we and the rest of the world will suffer. It’s all very evil and quite frightening.
Monday, May 12th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Denise,
The democratic party is in a power struggle. There are 2 camps. The Clinton camp and the Dean, Brazile, Pelosi, Kennedy, Kerry camp. The Dean camp deliberately disenfranchised Fl. and MI. because they knew that based on the demographics, Clinton would have won both these big states and inevitably been the nominee. There is no doubt that Clinton is the stronger candidate for the general election, but they don’t want her heading the party so they are willing to throw the general election to ensure that she doesn’t win. They are convinced that if she loses, they will become more powerful and dominate the party.
The republican’s are working with them because they know that Clinton is the only one who can beat McCain and they don’t want to lose power. The corporate media wants McCain so their corporate owners (general electric, Time warner, etc…) can continue making billions on defense contracts and nuclear power plants. Clinton wants to get out of Iraq and go solar, wind, bio-fuel, ie. green. So they have been brain washing the public into hating Hillary and Bill Clinton so that people won’t vote for her. THis is why they are always talking about her nagetives and the false divisiveness. Its all smoke, but people buy it. One of the ways they have been doing this is by dividing the party by race, class and gender. The media outlets are the ones who have been instigating the race bating and trying to make the Clinton’s look racist. Their sexist bashing of Clinton was designed to chase white men away from voting for her. These are some of the wedge issues used to deny Clinton the nomination. Its quite remarkable that Hillary has done as well as she has given all of these obsticles. It’s a credit to the deep well of support that this country had for her, as well as being a credit to her strength and determination. The unfortunate part is that the people won’t get a democratic president and we and the rest of the world will suffer. It’s all very evil and quite frightening.
This is the kind of stuff that will destroy humanity!!!!!!
Tuesday, May 13th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
I was wondering why Kerry, Kennedy, Pelosi were supporting Obama. Thanks, I knew someone was behind the press bashing Clinton. I finally figured out why the youth are behind Obama after listening carefully to one of his speeches. He is telling us that he will make everything good again and that is what the youth want to hear. They probably blame the older generation for all the troubles. Quite brilliant on his part but quite a sham also. Bill had it right on when he said it is a fairy tale. I can’t blame the young voters for wanting to believe him.