Monday, May 5, 2008 at 10:38 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Obama Down to 10% Against McCain
| Obama | McCain |
| 10.4% probability of winning | 89.4% probability of winning |
| Mean of 249 electoral votes | Mean of 289 electoral votes |
On Saturday, Sen. Barack Obama had a 33% chance of beating Sen. John McCain in a general election. With three new polls weighing in today, Obama slips further behind McCain.
After 10,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 1,045 times (plus he gets the 13 ties), and McCain wins 8,942 times. Obama has a 10.6% probability (including the ties) of beating McCain in a general election, and McCain has a 89.4% probability of beating Obama.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
- 10000 simulations: Obama wins 10.4%, McCain wins 89.4%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 248.6 ( 16.2)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 289.4 ( 16.2)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 248 (222, 285)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 291 (253, 316)
| State | EC Votes | # polls | Total Votes | % Obama | % McCain | Obama %wins | McCain %wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | 2 | 1331 | 37.1 | 62.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Alaska | 3 | 1 | 455 | 47.3 | 52.7 | 10.8 | 89.2 |
| Arizona | 10 | 1 | 490 | 44.7 | 55.3 | 1.5 | 98.5 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1* | 445 | 33.7 | 66.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| California | 55 | 2 | 933 | 53.8 | 46.2 | 99.3 | 0.7 |
| Colorado | 9 | 1 | 445 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 78.1 | 21.9 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1* | 1476 | 59.8 | 40.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Delaware | 3 | 1* | 553 | 55.0 | 45.0 | 98.6 | 1.4 |
| D.C. | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| Florida | 27 | 2 | 1683 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 2.5 | 97.5 |
| Georgia | 15 | 1* | 465 | 43.0 | 57.0 | 0.4 | 99.6 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 546 | 66.3 | 33.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 553 | 42.9 | 57.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Illinois | 21 | 1* | 546 | 65.9 | 34.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Indiana | 11 | 4 | 3421 | 48.8 | 51.2 | 7.1 | 92.9 |
| Iowa | 7 | 2 | 1043 | 54.2 | 45.8 | 99.9 | 0.1 |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 470 | 40.6 | 59.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 1 | 495 | 31.5 | 68.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1 | 465 | 44.1 | 55.9 | 1.0 | 99.0 |
| Maine | 4 | 1* | 440 | 55.7 | 44.3 | 98.8 | 1.2 |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 577 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 99.9 | 0.1 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 2 | 963 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 99.2 | 0.8 |
| Michigan | 17 | 1 | 504 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 72.0 | 28.0 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 2 | 942 | 55.4 | 44.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1* | 591 | 43.1 | 56.9 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Missouri | 11 | 1 | 499 | 45.7 | 54.3 | 2.8 | 97.2 |
| Montana | 3 | 1 | 455 | 47.3 | 52.7 | 10.7 | 89.3 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1* | 542 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 20.4 | 79.6 |
| Nevada | 5 | 1 | 455 | 47.3 | 52.7 | 10.9 | 89.1 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 2 | 874 | 47.6 | 52.4 | 8.0 | 92.0 |
| New Jersey | 15 | 1 | 707 | 63.6 | 36.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 2 | 896 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 29.8 | 70.2 |
| New York | 31 | 4 | 2516 | 55.9 | 44.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 3 | 1712 | 46.3 | 53.7 | 0.2 | 99.8 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1* | 218 | 46.3 | 53.7 | 12.9 | 87.1 |
| Ohio | 20 | 3 | 1878 | 48.5 | 51.5 | 7.5 | 92.5 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 1* | 569 | 40.1 | 59.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Oregon | 7 | 1 | 505 | 54.9 | 45.1 | 98.1 | 1.9 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 6 | 5315 | 48.8 | 51.2 | 0.2 | 99.8 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 572 | 58.2 | 41.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1* | 554 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 20.3 | 79.7 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1* | 221 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.2 | 99.8 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1* | 450 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.2 | 99.8 |
| Texas | 34 | 1 | 455 | 47.3 | 52.7 | 10.6 | 89.4 |
| Utah | 5 | 1* | 541 | 43.8 | 56.2 | 0.5 | 99.5 |
| Vermont | 3 | 1* | 576 | 68.4 | 31.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Virginia | 13 | 1 | 495 | 45.9 | 54.1 | 3.1 | 96.9 |
| Washington | 11 | 2 | 1167 | 55.4 | 44.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 1* | 540 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 2 | 972 | 52.5 | 47.5 | 93.7 | 6.3 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1* | 508 | 39.4 | 60.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
Wednesday, May 7th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Your methodology is atrocious and you should be embarrassed to post this stuff.
Wednesday, May 7th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Andrew,
Oddly enough, I am not the least bit embarrassed over my posts or methodology. But, I’m always open to concrete suggestions for improvement.
Monday, May 12th, 2008 at 9:20 am
http://sprblog.wordpress.com/2008/05/12/new-pa-poll-shows-clinton-obama-leading-mccain-but-clinton-stronger/
PA is Obama’s key.
I can see even in this model where Obama takes PA and 1 EV in Nebraska for 271. Would be interesting if you can get congressional district polling there.
Keep an eye on swing states NH, NM, CO, and NV. I think Obama will win three of the four though you only have CO in current polls.