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Monday, May 5, 2008 at 10:38 pm by Darryl

Poll Analysis: Clinton Maintains Her Lead Over McCain

Clinton McCain
75.8% probability of winning 22.4% probability of winning
Mean of 279 electoral votes Mean of 259 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

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On Saturday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had a 78.5% chance of beating Sen. John McCain in a general election. With three new polls weighing in today, not much has changed.

After 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 7,575 times (plus she gets the 188 ties), and McCain wins 2,237 times. Clinton now has a 77.6% (75.75% + 1.88%) probability of beating McCain in a general election—one held now. McCain has a 22.4% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

  • 10000 simulations: Clinton wins 75.8%, McCain wins 22.4%.
  • Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 279.5 ( 14.8)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 258.5 ( 14.8)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 280 (253, 315)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 258 (223, 285)
State EC Votes # polls Total Votes % Clinton % McCain Clinton %wins McCain %wins
Alabama 9 2 1319 38.3 61.7 0.0 100.0
Alaska 3 1 445 36.0 64.0 0.0 100.0
Arizona 10 1 519 41.0 59.0 0.0 100.0
Arkansas 6 1* 465 46.2 53.8 5.4 94.6
California 55 2 913 55.0 45.0 100.0 0.0
Colorado 9 1 430 41.9 58.1 0.1 99.9
Connecticut 7 1* 1477 51.7 48.3 91.6 8.4
Delaware 3 1* 532 52.8 47.2 91.0 9.0
D.C. 3 0 (100) (0)
Florida 27 2 1715 53.4 46.6 99.6 0.4
Georgia 15 1* 440 38.6 61.4 0.0 100.0
Hawaii 4 1* 487 52.4 47.6 87.0 13.0
Idaho 4 1* 548 29.9 70.1 0.0 100.0
Illinois 21 1* 512 56.4 43.6 99.6 0.4
Indiana 11 4 3400 47.6 52.4 0.0 100.0
Iowa 7 2 1007 48.7 51.3 18.6 81.4
Kansas 6 1 480 38.8 61.3 0.0 100.0
Kentucky 8 1 505 48.9 51.1 29.1 70.9
Louisiana 9 1 470 38.3 61.7 0.0 100.0
Maine 4 1* 445 52.8 47.2 89.3 10.7
Maryland 10 1* 552 55.1 44.9 98.7 1.3
Massachusetts 12 2 985 59.0 41.0 100.0 0.0
Michigan 17 1 498 44.6 55.4 1.2 98.8
Minnesota 10 2 942 51.6 48.4 84.1 15.9
Mississippi 6 1* 581 45.1 54.9 1.1 98.9
Missouri 11 1 504 50.6 49.4 60.9 39.1
Montana 3 1 450 40.0 60.0 0.0 100.0
Nebraska 5 1* 542 34.5 65.5 0.0 100.0
Nevada 5 1 435 43.7 56.3 0.6 99.4
New Hampshire 4 2 870 48.4 51.6 16.4 83.7
New Jersey 15 1 723 57.8 42.2 100.0 0.0
New Mexico 5 2 910 48.4 51.6 15.3 84.7
New York 31 4 2554 57.8 42.2 100.0 0.0
North Carolina 15 3 1691 43.2 56.8 0.0 100.0
North Dakota 3 1* 511 39.3 60.7 0.0 100.0
Ohio 20 3 1914 53.8 46.2 100.0 0.0
Oklahoma 7 1* 552 45.7 54.3 2.2 97.8
Oregon 7 1 505 50.5 49.5 59.1 40.9
Pennsylvania 21 6 5377 52.1 47.9 100.0 0.0
Rhode Island 4 1* 571 59.4 40.6 100.0 0.0
South Carolina 8 1* 536 46.6 53.4 5.6 94.4
South Dakota 3 1* 440 43.2 56.8 0.4 99.6
Tennessee 11 1* 450 42.2 57.8 0.1 99.9
Texas 34 1 460 46.7 53.3 7.7 92.3
Utah 5 1* 559 29.3 70.7 0.0 100.0
Vermont 3 1* 551 55.7 44.3 99.3 0.7
Virginia 13 1 484 41.5 58.5 0.0 100.0
Washington 11 2 1141 50.6 49.4 66.9 33.0
West Virginia 5 1* 549 52.8 47.2 91.7 8.3
Wisconsin 10 2 957 48.4 51.6 15.0 85.0
Wyoming 3 1* 508 31.5 68.5 0.0 100.0

* denotes that an older poll was used

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

Posted in Poll analysis, politics

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