Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:57 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Clinton Holds Steady Against McCain
| Clinton | McCain |
| 75.9% probability of winning | 21.5% probability of winning |
| Mean of 278 electoral votes | Mean of 260 electoral votes |
Last Thursday Sen. Hillary Clinton had a 78.8% chance of defeating Sen. John McCain in a general election. Today, new polls in New York and Indiana weigh in.
Now after 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 7,595 times (plus she gets the 250 ties), and McCain wins 2,155 times. If a general election were held today, we would expect Clinton to have a 78.5% (76.0% plus 2.5% for ties) probability of winning and McCain, a 21.5% probability of winning.
Essentially, these results are the same as last Thursday’s. Clinton still takes New York 100% of the elections and Indiana 0% of the elections. Clinton’s surprisingly good performance in the new Indiana poll is drowned out by other recent polls in the state (at least, for the time being).
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
- 10000 simulations: Clinton wins 75.9%, McCain wins 21.5%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 278.5 ( 13.0)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 259.5 ( 13.0)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 279 (255, 306)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 259 (232, 283)
| State | EC Votes | # polls | Total Votes | % Clinton | % McCain | Clinton %wins | McCain %wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | 2 | 1319 | 38.3 | 61.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Alaska | 3 | 1 | 445 | 36.0 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Arizona | 10 | 2 | 851 | 39.7 | 60.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1* | 465 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 5.4 | 94.6 |
| California | 55 | 2 | 913 | 55.0 | 45.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Colorado | 9 | 1 | 430 | 41.9 | 58.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1* | 1477 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 91.8 | 8.2 |
| Delaware | 3 | 1* | 532 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 91.5 | 8.5 |
| D.C. | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| Florida | 27 | 2 | 1715 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 99.6 | 0.4 |
| Georgia | 15 | 1* | 440 | 38.6 | 61.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 487 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 86.6 | 13.4 |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 548 | 29.9 | 70.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Illinois | 21 | 1* | 512 | 56.4 | 43.6 | 99.7 | 0.3 |
| Indiana | 11 | 4 | 3400 | 47.6 | 52.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Iowa | 7 | 2 | 1007 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 18.5 | 81.5 |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 480 | 38.8 | 61.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 1 | 505 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 29.2 | 70.8 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 1 | 470 | 38.3 | 61.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Maine | 4 | 1* | 445 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 89.5 | 10.6 |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 552 | 55.1 | 44.9 | 98.7 | 1.3 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 2 | 985 | 59.0 | 41.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Michigan | 17 | 1 | 498 | 44.6 | 55.4 | 1.0 | 99.0 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 2 | 942 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 84.0 | 16.0 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1* | 581 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 1.1 | 98.9 |
| Missouri | 11 | 1 | 504 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 61.1 | 38.9 |
| Montana | 3 | 1 | 450 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1* | 542 | 34.5 | 65.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Nevada | 5 | 1 | 435 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 0.7 | 99.3 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 1 | 455 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 22.0 | 78.0 |
| New Jersey | 15 | 1 | 723 | 57.8 | 42.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 2 | 910 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 15.7 | 84.3 |
| New York | 31 | 5 | 3095 | 56.6 | 43.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 2 | 1151 | 43.1 | 56.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1* | 511 | 39.3 | 60.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Ohio | 20 | 3 | 1914 | 53.8 | 46.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 1* | 552 | 45.7 | 54.3 | 2.6 | 97.4 |
| Oregon | 7 | 1 | 505 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 59.8 | 40.2 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 6 | 5377 | 52.1 | 47.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 571 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1* | 536 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 5.7 | 94.3 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1* | 440 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 0.5 | 99.6 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1 | 450 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.2 | 99.9 |
| Texas | 34 | 1* | 546 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 3.8 | 96.2 |
| Utah | 5 | 1* | 559 | 29.3 | 70.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Vermont | 3 | 1* | 551 | 55.7 | 44.3 | 99.4 | 0.6 |
| Virginia | 13 | 1 | 484 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Washington | 11 | 2 | 1141 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 66.7 | 33.3 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 1* | 549 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 91.4 | 8.6 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 2 | 957 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 15.3 | 84.7 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1* | 508 | 31.5 | 68.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
