Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 7:50 pm by Darryl
Two New Polls…
Two new state head-to-head poll have come to my attention over the last two days:
The New York poll gives both Democrats a big advantage. Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. John McCain by nearly 2:1—60% to 31%. This 29% spread is much bigger than anything seen this year in NY. (Last fall saw larger spreads in a couple of polls.) Two weeks ago, three polls taken at nearly the same time gave Clinton a +4%, +12%, and +16% lead. A poll in early April gave Clinton a +2% lead.
Sen. Barack Obama leads McCain in New York, 52% to 35%. This makes four polls in a row in April that Obama has led McCain, although two of the polls have been single-digit leads. In early April, McCain led Obama by +2%.
Indiana is a big surprise. This poll also shows both Democrats leading McCain. Clinton leads McCain 48% to 45%. A few days ago there were two polls taken at nearly the same time: McCain was up by +9% in a Research 2000 poll, and the candidates were tied at 46% in a WTHR/Indianapolis Star poll. A mid-April SurveyUSA poll had McCain up by +9%
Obama also leads McCain in Indiana by the slimmest 48% to 47%. McCain was up by +8% in the Research 2000 poll and Obama led McCain by 8% in the WTHR/Indianapolis Star poll. The mid-April SurveyUSA poll had McCain up by +7%.
Indiana is turning out to be a most interesting state!
I’ll post new Monte Carlo analyses later this evening.
