Thursday, April 24, 2008 at 10:14 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: McCain Slips a Tiny Bit Against Obama
| Obama | McCain |
| 21.0% probability of winning | 78.6% probability of winning |
| Mean of 248 electoral votes | Mean of 290 electoral votes |
Yesterday it looked like Sen. Barack Obama was losing ground against Sen. John McCain. He slipped to a 20% probability of beating McCain in a general election. With two new polls released today, Obama gains back a tiny bit of lost ground.
After 10,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 2,097 times (plus takes the 46 ties), and McCain wins 7,857 times. This suggests that Obama has a 21.0% (plus 0.5% for ties) probability of winning and McCain has a 78.6% probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every 7 days using polls from 24 Aug 2007 to 24 Apr 2008, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
Still no evidence of any real turn-around for Obama.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations covering the current time period:
- 10000 simulations: Obama wins 21.0%, McCain wins 78.6%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 247.9 ( 23.2)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 290.1 ( 23.2)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 244 (210, 295)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 294 (243, 328)
| State | EC Votes | # polls | Total Votes | % Obama | % McCain | Obama %wins | McCain %wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | 3 | 1360 | 37.1 | 62.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Alaska | 3 | 1 | 455 | 47.3 | 52.7 | 11.4 | 88.6 |
| Arizona | 10 | 1 | 325 | 37.5 | 62.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1* | 445 | 33.7 | 66.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| California | 55 | 2 | 933 | 53.8 | 46.2 | 99.2 | 0.8 |
| Colorado | 9 | 1 | 445 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 77.4 | 22.6 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1* | 1476 | 59.8 | 40.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Delaware | 3 | 1* | 553 | 55.0 | 45.0 | 98.6 | 1.4 |
| D.C. | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| Florida | 27 | 2 | 1398 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Georgia | 15 | 1* | 465 | 43.0 | 57.0 | 0.3 | 99.7 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 546 | 66.3 | 33.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 553 | 42.9 | 57.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Illinois | 21 | 1* | 546 | 65.9 | 34.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Indiana | 11 | 2 | 1756 | 46.1 | 53.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Iowa | 7 | 2 | 943 | 53.1 | 46.9 | 97.0 | 3.0 |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 470 | 40.6 | 59.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 1 | 495 | 31.5 | 68.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 2 | 981 | 42.3 | 57.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Maine | 4 | 1 | 440 | 55.7 | 44.3 | 98.7 | 1.4 |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 577 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 99.9 | 0.1 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 1 | 513 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 69.6 | 30.4 |
| Michigan | 17 | 2 | 929 | 50.4 | 49.6 | 59.7 | 40.3 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 2 | 942 | 55.4 | 44.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1* | 591 | 43.1 | 56.9 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Missouri | 11 | 2 | 954 | 43.8 | 56.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Montana | 3 | 1 | 455 | 47.3 | 52.7 | 11.2 | 88.8 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1* | 542 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 21.1 | 78.8 |
| Nevada | 5 | 1 | 455 | 47.3 | 52.7 | 11.3 | 88.7 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 1* | 445 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 22.7 | 77.3 |
| New Jersey | 15 | 2 | 1162 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 79.0 | 21.0 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 2 | 896 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 30.5 | 69.5 |
| New York | 31 | 4 | 2622 | 53.8 | 46.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 2 | 1166 | 46.9 | 53.1 | 1.5 | 98.5 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1 | 218 | 46.3 | 53.7 | 14.0 | 86.1 |
| Ohio | 20 | 3 | 1972 | 49.1 | 50.9 | 17.4 | 82.6 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 1* | 569 | 40.1 | 59.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Oregon | 7 | 2 | 955 | 54.1 | 45.9 | 99.9 | 0.2 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 7 | 8557 | 49.4 | 50.6 | 1.0 | 99.0 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 572 | 58.2 | 41.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1* | 554 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 21.6 | 78.4 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1 | 221 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.2 | 99.9 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1 | 450 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Texas | 34 | 1* | 558 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 38.9 | 61.1 |
| Utah | 5 | 1* | 541 | 43.8 | 56.2 | 0.4 | 99.7 |
| Vermont | 3 | 1* | 576 | 68.4 | 31.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Virginia | 13 | 2 | 960 | 45.0 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Washington | 11 | 3 | 1622 | 54.6 | 45.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 1* | 540 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 2 | 973 | 50.9 | 49.1 | 72.1 | 27.9 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1* | 508 | 39.4 | 60.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
