Monday, April 21, 2008 at 9:33 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Clinton Gains a Little Against McCain
| Clinton | McCain |
| 20.9% probability of winning | 77.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 256 electoral votes | Mean of 282 electoral votes |
Last Saturday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had about a 16% probability of beating Sen. John McCain in a general election. With a new head-to-head poll from Pennsylvania to add to the mix, Clinton gains some ground.
After 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 2,092 times (plus she is awarded the 205 ties), and McCain wins 7,703 times. Clinton has a 23.0% (20.9% plus 2.1% for ties) probability of defeating McCain in a general election, and McCain has a 77.0% probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every 7 days using polls from 20 Aug 2007 to 20 Apr 2008, and including polls from the preceding 1 month (FAQ).
Clearly, Clinton is continuing her slow, steady, slog to gain ground on McCain. She is now performing nearly the same against McCain as is Sen. Barack Obama.
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
For the current time period, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
- 10000 simulations: Clinton wins 20.9%, McCain wins 77.0%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 256.3 ( 17.7)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 281.7 ( 17.7)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 258 (218, 290)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 280 (248, 320)
| State | EC Votes | # polls | Total Votes | % Clinton | % McCain | Clinton %wins | McCain %wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | 3 | 1302 | 39.0 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Alaska | 3 | 1 | 445 | 36.0 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Arizona | 10 | 1 | 332 | 37.7 | 62.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1* | 465 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 5.1 | 94.9 |
| California | 55 | 2 | 913 | 55.0 | 45.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Colorado | 9 | 1 | 430 | 41.9 | 58.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1 | 1477 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 91.8 | 8.2 |
| Delaware | 3 | 1* | 532 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 91.6 | 8.4 |
| D.C. | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| Florida | 27 | 2 | 1422 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 80.6 | 19.4 |
| Georgia | 15 | 1 | 440 | 38.6 | 61.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 1* | 487 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 87.0 | 13.0 |
| Idaho | 4 | 1* | 548 | 29.9 | 70.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Illinois | 21 | 1* | 512 | 56.4 | 43.6 | 99.6 | 0.4 |
| Indiana | 11 | 1 | 1192 | 44.2 | 55.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Iowa | 7 | 2 | 932 | 44.2 | 55.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 | 480 | 38.8 | 61.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 1 | 505 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 29.7 | 70.3 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 2 | 1016 | 42.5 | 57.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Maine | 4 | 1 | 445 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 89.5 | 10.5 |
| Maryland | 10 | 1* | 552 | 55.1 | 44.9 | 98.8 | 1.2 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 1 | 530 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 99.9 | 0.0 |
| Michigan | 17 | 2 | 933 | 46.3 | 53.7 | 1.0 | 98.9 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 1 | 497 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 59.7 | 40.3 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1* | 581 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 1.3 | 98.7 |
| Missouri | 11 | 2 | 959 | 48.0 | 52.0 | 11.0 | 89.0 |
| Montana | 3 | 1 | 450 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1* | 542 | 34.5 | 65.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Nevada | 5 | 1* | 435 | 49.4 | 50.6 | 39.5 | 60.5 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 1* | 440 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 7.0 | 93.0 |
| New Jersey | 15 | 2 | 1178 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 79.3 | 20.7 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 2 | 910 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 15.7 | 84.3 |
| New York | 31 | 3 | 2091 | 55.8 | 44.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 3 | 1571 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 1* | 511 | 39.3 | 60.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Ohio | 20 | 3 | 2022 | 53.6 | 46.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 1* | 552 | 45.7 | 54.3 | 2.5 | 97.5 |
| Oregon | 7 | 2 | 935 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 19.2 | 80.8 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 7 | 8808 | 52.7 | 47.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1* | 571 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1* | 536 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 5.7 | 94.3 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1* | 440 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 0.4 | 99.6 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 1 | 450 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Texas | 34 | 1* | 546 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 3.8 | 96.2 |
| Utah | 5 | 1* | 559 | 29.3 | 70.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Vermont | 3 | 1* | 551 | 55.7 | 44.3 | 99.4 | 0.6 |
| Virginia | 13 | 2 | 954 | 39.9 | 60.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Washington | 11 | 3 | 1586 | 49.9 | 50.1 | 47.4 | 52.6 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 1* | 549 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 91.6 | 8.4 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 2 | 943 | 47.1 | 52.9 | 3.7 | 96.3 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 1* | 508 | 31.5 | 68.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
