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Saturday, March 15, 2008 at 10:36 pm by Darryl

Poll Analysis: Clinton v. McCain

Clinton McCain
3.9% probability of winning 95.9% probability of winning
Mean of 231 electoral votes Mean of 307 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

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A few days ago, Sen. Hillary Clinton was expected to have an 8% (including the ties) probability of defeating Sen. John McCain in a general election. Since then there have been polls released in five states (here and here).

Now, after 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 388 times (plus she would most likely take the 19 ties), and McCain wins 9,593 times. Clinton has a 3.9% (plus 0.2% for ties) probability of winning and McCain has a 95.9% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes from the simulations:

  • 10000 simulations: Clinton wins 3.9%, McCain wins 95.9%.
  • Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 231.2 ( 19.9)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 306.8 ( 19.9)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 229 (194, 273)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 309 (265, 344)
State EC Votes # polls Total Votes % Clinton % McCain Clinton %wins McCain %wins
Alabama 9 2 1077 42.1 57.9 0.0 100.0
Alaska 3 1 556 37.8 62.2 0.0 100.0
Arizona 10 2 1072 39.5 60.5 0.0 100.0
Arkansas 6 2 968 57.2 42.8 100.0 0.0
California 55 3 1434 57.4 42.6 100.0 0.0
Colorado 9 1 568 46.7 53.3 5.2 94.8
Connecticut 7 2 1031 53.8 46.2 99.6 0.4
Delaware 3 1 532 52.8 47.2 91.2 8.8
D.C. 3 0 (100) (0)
Florida 27 3 1605 49.1 50.9 20.1 79.9
Georgia 15 1 539 38.4 61.6 0.0 100.0
Hawaii 4 1 487 52.4 47.6 86.7 13.3
Idaho 4 1 548 29.9 70.1 0.0 100.0
Illinois 21 1 512 56.4 43.6 99.6 0.4
Indiana 11 1 515 40.4 59.6 0.0 100.0
Iowa 7 4 2059 45.1 54.9 0.0 100.0
Kansas 6 2 1041 41.5 58.5 0.0 100.0
Kentucky 8 1 551 45.0 55.0 1.3 98.7
Louisiana 9 1 557 44.5 55.5 0.8 99.2
Maine 4 1 575 53.4 46.6 94.9 5.1
Maryland 10 2 1254 54.5 45.5 100.0 0.0
Massachusetts 12 2 1104 57.4 42.6 100.0 0.0
Michigan 17 3 1451 49.5 50.5 31.6 68.4
Minnesota 10 3 1501 50.7 49.3 73.7 26.3
Mississippi 6 1 581 45.1 54.9 1.2 98.8
Missouri 11 2 1099 50.6 49.4 67.4 32.6
Montana 3 1 550 38.4 61.6 0.0 100.0
Nebraska 5 1 542 34.5 65.5 0.0 100.0
Nevada 5 1 551 45.6 54.4 2.1 97.9
New Hampshire 4 1 573 45.5 54.5 1.9 98.0
New Jersey 15 4 3251 53.5 46.5 100.0 0.0
New Mexico 5 3 1487 48.8 51.2 16.3 83.7
New York 31 2 1010 59.3 40.7 100.0 0.0
North Carolina 15 3 1774 45.2 54.8 0.0 100.0
North Dakota 3 1 511 39.3 60.7 0.0 100.0
Ohio 20 5 2910 50.5 49.5 72.4 27.6
Oklahoma 7 1 552 45.7 54.3 2.3 97.7
Oregon 7 2 1048 46.5 53.5 0.9 99.1
Pennsylvania 21 5 4294 49.6 50.4 29.1 70.9
Rhode Island 4 1 571 59.4 40.6 100.0 0.0
South Carolina 8 1 536 46.6 53.4 5.3 94.7
South Dakota 3 2 1022 43.3 56.7 0.0 100.0
Tennessee 11 3 1613 47.2 52.8 2.3 97.7
Texas 34 3 3348 45.4 54.6 0.0 100.0
Utah 5 1 559 29.3 70.7 0.0 100.0
Vermont 3 2 919 57.8 42.2 100.0 0.0
Virginia 13 3 1535 45.8 54.2 0.1 99.9
Washington 11 2 1011 47.4 52.6 5.4 94.6
West Virginia 5 1 549 52.8 47.2 91.3 8.6
Wisconsin 10 3 1479 47.5 52.5 3.3 96.7
Wyoming 3 1 508 31.5 68.5 0.0 100.0

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

Posted in Poll analysis, politics

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3 Responses to “Poll Analysis: Clinton v. McCain”

  1. Hassan Says:

    Sunday, March 16th, 2008 at 2:34 pm

    Thanks for your recent simulations. They seem to systematically confirm that Obama is a stronger, more electable candidate. I was wondering if there was some way that you can enter into the discussions with the media about Obama’s strengths. The media has not explored state-by-state simulations at this level of detail yet they seem to be craving for answers about which Democratic candidate is more electable. It is clear from these polls that the actual primary results in California, New York, Ohio, Texas is of little relevance: Obama does better than Clinton (overall) in the larger states that she has won in the primary. Furthermore, Obama has strengths in swing states that Clinton does not, such as Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan, Washington, and Oregon. I am surprised that the Clinton campaign consistently refer to the Michigan win when it is Obama who wins Michigan in the polls, and not her. Similarly, in Florida, Clinton does not fare better than Obama in the overall result. And despite winning New Hampshire in the primary, she decisely loses New Hampshire to John McCain. Obama on the other hand wins New Hampshire in the fall. Overall, Obama puts more states into play and pushes John McCain to play defense in more red states, which is a strong argument considering any day spent on defense is a day outside of the strongholds of leaning Democratic states.

    Is anyone making these arguments in the media? Is there a way for you to write articles about this, since popular vote counts are not as important as the electoral vote…

    I think a thorough discussion is necessary in light of the factually inaccurate statement by Mark Penn (pollster in the Clinton campaign) that Obama is “unelectable.”

    I wish there was more discussion about this, so that the voting public is aware. Any thoughts would be welcome.

    Thanks again for all your work.

    Hassan

  2. SeattleJew Says:

    Monday, March 17th, 2008 at 8:41 am

    Darryl

    This is wonderful work. I commented oin the graphs over at SeattleJew.

  3. SeattleJew Says:

    Monday, March 17th, 2008 at 8:45 am

    Hassan

    I agree, Darry gets far too little attention. He does cross post over at HA but the result their is a lot of trolling.

    You might look at my comments on SeattleJew,

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