Saturday, March 15, 2008 at 8:47 pm by Darryl
New Head-to-head Polls from Ohio, California, Connecticut, and Tennessee
There were four new state head-to-head polls released in the last couple of days.
- Rasmussen poll in Ohio
- Rasmussen poll in California
- Rasmussen poll in Connecticut
- Whit Ayers poll in Tennessee
In Ohio Sen. John McCain leads Sen. Hillary Clinton 46% to 40%. Since the beginning of this year, Ohio has trended mostly red:
| Poll | Start date | End date | Sample size | MOE | %Clinton | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen | 13-Mar-08 | 13-Mar-08 | 500 | 4.5 | 46.5 | 53.5 |
| SurveyUSA | 26-Feb-08 | 28-Feb-08 | 629 | 4.0 | 55.6 | 44.4 |
| The Ohio Poll | 21-Feb-08 | 24-Feb-08 | 979 | 3.0 | 48.0 | 52.0 |
| Rasmussen | 17-Feb-08 | 17-Feb-08 | 500 | 4.5 | 48.3 | 51.7 |
| SurveyUSA | 15-Feb-08 | 17-Feb-08 | 542 | 4.3 | 55.3 | 44.7 |
| Quinnipiac | 06-Feb-08 | 12-Feb-08 | 1748 | 2.3 | 49.4 | 50.6 |
| SurveyUSA | 04-Jan-08 | 06-Jan-08 | 535 | 4.3 | 48.9 | 51.1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 04-Jan-08 | 04-Jan-08 | 946 | 3.1 | 47.7 | 52.3 |
These normalized results show McCain and Clinton within a few points of each other for most polls. Rasmussen polls lean toward McCain and SurveyUSA polls strongly favor Clinton. These pollster-specific biases (which are not necessarily intentional) is one justification for combining recent polls together.
McCain also leads Sen. Barack Obama 46% to 40% in the new Rasmussen poll. The 2008 polling for this race look similar to the Clinton-McCain polls:
| Poll | Start date | End date | Sample size | MOE | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen | 13-Mar-08 | 13-Mar-08 | 500 | 4.5 | 46.5 | 53.5 |
| SurveyUSA | 26-Feb-08 | 28-Feb-08 | 629 | 4.0 | 55.6 | 44.4 |
| The Ohio Poll | 21-Feb-08 | 24-Feb-08 | 968 | 3.0 | 50.5 | 49.5 |
| Rasmussen | 17-Feb-08 | 17-Feb-08 | 500 | 4.5 | 49.4 | 50.6 |
| SurveyUSA | 15-Feb-08 | 17-Feb-08 | 542 | 4.3 | 51.6 | 48.4 |
| Quinnipiac | 06-Feb-08 | 12-Feb-08 | 1748 | 2.3 | 48.8 | 51.2 |
| SurveyUSA | 04-Jan-08 | 06-Jan-08 | 535 | 4.3 | 46.2 | 53.8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 04-Jan-08 | 04-Jan-08 | 946 | 3.1 | 48.3 | 51.7 |
In California Clinton leads McCain 46% to 39%. If anything, this result is slightly bad for Clinton who, for the first time in almost a year, fails to gain at least 50%. The 7% spread is the smallest in a year.
Obama leads McCain 53% to 38%, which is consistent with other recent California polls.
Connecticut is mostly blue. Clinton squeaks by McCain 47% to 44%. The only other recent poll for this match-up is a late Feb. SurveyUSA poll that gave Clinton a 10% lead over McCain (50% to 40%).
Obama leads McCain in Connecticut by a much greater margin (50% to 38%). But even this reflects an improvement for McCain, who was down 19% in the late Feb. SurveyUSA poll.
McCain leads in Tennessee. Against Clinton he leads 51% to 43%. A late Feb. SurveyUSA poll had the two tied at 46%, although a mid-Feb. poll had McCain up 45% to 38%.
McCain also leads Obama in the new Tennessee poll, 53% to 36%. The numbers are very close to the two February polls (54% to 38% and 50% to 36%).
I’ll post new simulation analyses later this evening.
