| Clinton |
McCain |
| 7.5% probability of winning |
92.1% probability of winning |
| Mean of 233 electoral votes |
Mean of 305 electoral votes |
Yesterday Sen. Hillary Clinton had a 17% chance of defeating Sen. John McCain in a general election. With three new polls (two from Pennsylvania and a Michigan poll), Clinton’s probability of winning is cut in half.
After 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins only 753 times (plus she would take the 35 ties), and McCain wins 9,212 times. This suggests Clinton has a 7.5% (plus 0.4%) probability of winning and McCain has a 92.1% probability of winning.
The distribution of electoral votes follows:
- 10000 simulations: Clinton wins 7.5%, McCain wins 92.1%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 232.8 ( 20.6)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 305.2 ( 20.6)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 229 (203, 289)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 309 (249, 335)
| State |
EC Votes |
# polls |
Total Votes |
% Clinton |
% McCain |
Clinton %wins |
McCain %wins |
| Alabama |
9 |
2 |
1077 |
42.1 |
57.9 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Alaska |
3 |
1 |
556 |
37.8 |
62.2 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Arizona |
10 |
2 |
1072 |
39.5 |
60.5 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Arkansas |
6 |
1 |
533 |
56.1 |
43.9 |
99.6 |
0.4 |
| California |
55 |
2 |
1009 |
58.8 |
41.2 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Colorado |
9 |
1 |
568 |
46.7 |
53.3 |
5.3 |
94.7 |
| Connecticut |
7 |
1 |
576 |
55.6 |
44.4 |
99.4 |
0.6 |
| Delaware |
3 |
1 |
532 |
52.8 |
47.2 |
91.4 |
8.6 |
| D.C. |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Florida |
27 |
3 |
1605 |
49.1 |
50.9 |
19.4 |
80.6 |
| Georgia |
15 |
2 |
1056 |
42.1 |
57.9 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Hawaii |
4 |
1 |
487 |
52.4 |
47.6 |
86.8 |
13.2 |
| Idaho |
4 |
1 |
548 |
29.9 |
70.1 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Illinois |
21 |
1 |
512 |
56.4 |
43.6 |
99.7 |
0.3 |
| Indiana |
11 |
1 |
515 |
40.4 |
59.6 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Iowa |
7 |
4 |
2059 |
45.1 |
54.9 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Kansas |
6 |
2 |
1041 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Kentucky |
8 |
1 |
551 |
45.0 |
55.0 |
1.2 |
98.8 |
| Louisiana |
9 |
1 |
557 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
0.7 |
99.3 |
| Maine |
4 |
1 |
575 |
53.4 |
46.6 |
95.0 |
5.0 |
| Maryland |
10 |
2 |
1254 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Massachusetts |
12 |
2 |
1104 |
57.4 |
42.6 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Michigan |
17 |
3 |
1451 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
31.6 |
68.4 |
| Minnesota |
10 |
3 |
1501 |
50.7 |
49.3 |
74.1 |
25.9 |
| Mississippi |
6 |
1 |
581 |
45.1 |
54.9 |
1.1 |
98.9 |
| Missouri |
11 |
3 |
1524 |
50.3 |
49.7 |
59.7 |
40.3 |
| Montana |
3 |
1 |
550 |
38.4 |
61.6 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Nebraska |
5 |
1 |
542 |
34.5 |
65.5 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Nevada |
5 |
2 |
996 |
45.3 |
54.7 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| New Hampshire |
4 |
1 |
573 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
1.8 |
98.2 |
| New Jersey |
15 |
4 |
3251 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| New Mexico |
5 |
3 |
1487 |
48.8 |
51.2 |
15.6 |
84.4 |
| New York |
31 |
3 |
1586 |
57.3 |
42.7 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| North Carolina |
15 |
3 |
1774 |
45.2 |
54.8 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| North Dakota |
3 |
1 |
511 |
39.3 |
60.7 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Ohio |
20 |
4 |
2480 |
51.3 |
48.8 |
90.8 |
9.2 |
| Oklahoma |
7 |
1 |
552 |
45.7 |
54.3 |
2.2 |
97.8 |
| Oregon |
7 |
4 |
1819 |
46.7 |
53.3 |
0.3 |
99.7 |
| Pennsylvania |
21 |
7 |
5224 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
21.6 |
78.4 |
| Rhode Island |
4 |
1 |
571 |
59.4 |
40.6 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| South Carolina |
8 |
1 |
536 |
46.6 |
53.4 |
5.6 |
94.4 |
| South Dakota |
3 |
2 |
1022 |
43.3 |
56.7 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Tennessee |
11 |
2 |
1049 |
48.0 |
52.0 |
10.5 |
89.5 |
| Texas |
34 |
3 |
3348 |
45.4 |
54.6 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Utah |
5 |
1 |
559 |
29.3 |
70.7 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Vermont |
3 |
2 |
919 |
57.8 |
42.2 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Virginia |
13 |
3 |
1535 |
45.8 |
54.2 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Washington |
11 |
3 |
1292 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
3.5 |
96.5 |
| West Virginia |
5 |
1 |
549 |
52.8 |
47.2 |
91.6 |
8.4 |
| Wisconsin |
10 |
3 |
1479 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
3.2 |
96.8 |
| Wyoming |
3 |
1 |
508 |
31.5 |
68.5 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
