| Obama |
McCain |
| 95.0% probability of winning |
4.9% probability of winning |
| Mean of 298 electoral votes |
Mean of 240 electoral votes |
Five days ago, Sen. Barack Obama had a 100% chance of defeating Sen. John McCain. There were three new polls released today (two from Pennsylvania and one from Michigan), plus an older poll from South Dakota. As a result Obama’s lead slips a little bit.
Today after 10,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 9,503 times (plus he takes the 4 ties), and McCain wins 493 times. In other words, if the election were held today, Obama would have a 95.0% probability of winning and McCain would have a 4.9% probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes:
- 10000 simulations: Obama wins 95.0%, McCain wins 4.9%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 297.7 ( 16.5)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 240.3 ( 16.5)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 298 (264, 326)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 240 (212, 274)
| State |
EC Votes |
# polls |
Total Votes |
% Obama |
% McCain |
Obama %wins |
McCain %wins |
| Alabama |
9 |
2 |
1088 |
41.0 |
59.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Alaska |
3 |
1 |
561 |
47.2 |
52.8 |
9.1 |
90.9 |
| Arizona |
10 |
2 |
1032 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Arkansas |
6 |
1 |
504 |
38.3 |
61.7 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| California |
55 |
2 |
1025 |
59.9 |
40.1 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Colorado |
9 |
1 |
573 |
55.0 |
45.0 |
98.9 |
1.1 |
| Connecticut |
7 |
1 |
570 |
61.8 |
38.2 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Delaware |
3 |
1 |
553 |
55.0 |
45.0 |
98.7 |
1.3 |
| D.C. |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Florida |
27 |
3 |
1556 |
45.0 |
55.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Georgia |
15 |
2 |
1086 |
44.3 |
55.7 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Hawaii |
4 |
1 |
546 |
66.3 |
33.7 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Idaho |
4 |
1 |
553 |
42.9 |
57.1 |
0.0 |
99.9 |
| Illinois |
21 |
1 |
546 |
65.9 |
34.1 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Indiana |
11 |
1 |
524 |
45.0 |
55.0 |
1.3 |
98.7 |
| Iowa |
7 |
4 |
2083 |
55.7 |
44.3 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Kansas |
6 |
2 |
1027 |
45.9 |
54.1 |
0.1 |
99.9 |
| Kentucky |
8 |
1 |
527 |
38.0 |
62.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Louisiana |
9 |
1 |
650 |
42.0 |
58.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Maine |
4 |
1 |
588 |
57.7 |
42.3 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Maryland |
10 |
2 |
1288 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Massachusetts |
12 |
2 |
1090 |
52.6 |
47.4 |
95.1 |
4.9 |
| Michigan |
17 |
3 |
1440 |
51.1 |
48.9 |
82.5 |
17.5 |
| Minnesota |
10 |
3 |
1522 |
56.6 |
43.4 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Mississippi |
6 |
1 |
591 |
43.1 |
56.9 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Missouri |
11 |
3 |
1479 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
32.2 |
67.8 |
| Montana |
3 |
1 |
551 |
45.4 |
54.6 |
1.6 |
98.4 |
| Nebraska |
5 |
1 |
542 |
48.3 |
51.7 |
21.0 |
79.0 |
| Nevada |
5 |
2 |
972 |
54.6 |
45.4 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| New Hampshire |
4 |
1 |
573 |
51.1 |
48.9 |
71.7 |
28.3 |
| New Jersey |
15 |
4 |
3156 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| New Mexico |
5 |
3 |
1478 |
54.0 |
46.0 |
99.9 |
0.1 |
| New York |
31 |
3 |
1567 |
57.6 |
42.4 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| North Carolina |
15 |
3 |
1753 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
0.2 |
99.8 |
| North Dakota |
3 |
1 |
503 |
52.3 |
47.7 |
85.6 |
14.4 |
| Ohio |
20 |
4 |
2394 |
51.8 |
48.2 |
95.3 |
4.7 |
| Oklahoma |
7 |
1 |
569 |
40.1 |
59.9 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Oregon |
7 |
4 |
1849 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
99.9 |
0.1 |
| Pennsylvania |
21 |
7 |
5076 |
49.9 |
50.1 |
45.1 |
54.9 |
| Rhode Island |
4 |
1 |
572 |
58.2 |
41.8 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| South Carolina |
8 |
1 |
554 |
48.4 |
51.6 |
21.0 |
79.0 |
| South Dakota |
3 |
2 |
999 |
46.2 |
53.8 |
0.6 |
99.4 |
| Tennessee |
11 |
2 |
1065 |
41.6 |
58.4 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Texas |
34 |
3 |
3313 |
46.3 |
53.7 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Utah |
5 |
1 |
541 |
43.8 |
56.2 |
0.4 |
99.6 |
| Vermont |
3 |
2 |
948 |
65.6 |
34.4 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Virginia |
13 |
3 |
1579 |
50.2 |
49.8 |
58.4 |
41.6 |
| Washington |
11 |
3 |
1302 |
54.9 |
45.1 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| West Virginia |
5 |
1 |
540 |
39.8 |
60.2 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Wisconsin |
10 |
3 |
1483 |
54.1 |
45.9 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Wyoming |
3 |
1 |
508 |
39.4 |
60.6 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
