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Poll Analysis: Obama versus McCain with Polls in 50 States »

Friday, March 7, 2008 at 9:12 am by Darryl

Poll Analysis: Clinton versus McCain with Polls in 50 States

Clinton McCain
8.9% probability of winning 89.1% probability of winning
Mean of 247 electoral votes Mean of 291 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

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Last Sunday’s analysis gave Sen. Hillary Clinton a 2% chance of defeating Sen. John McCain. She had a average electoral vote total of 235 to McCain’s 303.

With new SurveyUSA head-to-head polls in all fifty states (but not D.C.), Clinton has gained significant ground on McCain’s substantial lead. After 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 886 times (plus she would take the 201 ties), and McCain wins 8,913 times. If the election were held now, we would expect Clinton to have an 8.9% probability (plus an extra 2% for the ties) of winning and McCain would have a 89.1% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes from the simulations:

  • 10,000 simulations: Clinton wins 8.9%, McCain wins 89.1%.
  • Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 246.7 ( 17.1)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 291.3 ( 17.1)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 245 (214, 283)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 293 (255, 324)
State EC Votes # polls Total Votes % Clinton % McCain Clinton %wins McCain %wins
Alabama 9 2 1077 42.1 57.9 0.0 100.0
Alaska 3 1 556 37.8 62.2 0.0 100.0
Arizona 10 2 1072 39.5 60.5 0.0 100.0
Arkansas 6 1 533 56.1 43.9 99.5 0.5
California 55 2 1009 58.8 41.2 100.0 0.0
Colorado 9 2 1051 47.9 52.1 9.2 90.8
Connecticut 7 1 576 55.6 44.4 99.4 0.6
Delaware 3 1 532 52.8 47.2 91.4 8.6
D.C. 3 0 (100) (0)
Florida 27 4 2473 49.0 51.0 13.2 86.8
Georgia 15 2 1056 42.1 57.9 0.0 100.0
Hawaii 4 1 487 52.4 47.6 87.0 13.0
Idaho 4 1 548 29.9 70.1 0.0 100.0
Illinois 21 1 512 56.4 43.6 99.6 0.4
Indiana 11 1 515 40.4 59.6 0.0 100.0
Iowa 7 4 2059 45.1 54.9 0.0 100.0
Kansas 6 2 1041 41.5 58.5 0.0 100.0
Kentucky 8 1 551 45.0 55.0 1.3 98.7
Louisiana 9 1 557 44.5 55.5 0.7 99.3
Maine 4 1 575 53.4 46.6 95.0 5.0
Maryland 10 2 1254 54.5 45.5 99.9 0.1
Massachusetts 12 2 1104 57.4 42.6 100.0 0.0
Michigan 17 2 1006 50.0 50.0 50.1 49.9
Minnesota 10 3 1501 50.7 49.3 73.7 26.3
Mississippi 6 1 581 45.1 54.9 1.2 98.8
Missouri 11 3 1524 50.3 49.7 60.3 39.7
Montana 3 1 550 38.4 61.6 0.0 100.0
Nebraska 5 1 542 34.5 65.5 0.0 100.0
Nevada 5 2 996 45.3 54.7 0.0 100.0
New Hampshire 4 2 993 47.9 52.1 10.5 89.5
New Jersey 15 4 3251 53.5 46.5 100.0 0.0
New Mexico 5 3 1487 48.8 51.2 16.1 83.9
New York 31 3 1586 57.3 42.7 100.0 0.0
North Carolina 15 3 1774 45.2 54.8 0.0 100.0
North Dakota 3 1 511 39.3 60.7 0.0 100.0
Ohio 20 5 4001 50.6 49.4 75.1 24.9
Oklahoma 7 1 552 45.7 54.3 2.3 97.7
Oregon 7 4 1819 46.7 53.3 0.3 99.7
Pennsylvania 21 6 4915 51.1 48.9 98.0 1.9
Rhode Island 4 2 1162 59.7 40.3 100.0 0.0
South Carolina 8 1 536 46.6 53.4 5.6 94.4
South Dakota 3 1 582 43.5 56.5 0.1 99.9
Tennessee 11 2 1012 46.1 53.9 0.5 99.5
Texas 34 3 3348 45.4 54.6 0.0 100.0
Utah 5 1 559 29.3 70.7 0.0 100.0
Vermont 3 2 919 57.8 42.2 100.0 0.0
Virginia 13 3 1535 45.8 54.2 0.1 99.9
Washington 11 3 1292 47.5 52.5 4.0 96.0
West Virginia 5 1 549 52.8 47.2 91.9 8.1
Wisconsin 10 4 2207 47.4 52.6 1.4 98.6
Wyoming 3 1 508 31.5 68.5 0.0 100.0

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

Posted in Poll analysis, politics

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